Realized P&L
-$104
Unrealized P&L
-$50
Hit rate
41.0%
Resolved
96
Trades
791
lifetime
Volume
$13.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$17
Open exposure
$487
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-25
last 11-03 22:15
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 38 days
Categories
Other
65% 25% -$89
Politics
22% 40% -$9
Tech
9% 17% -$4
Crypto
1% 0% $0
Sports
1% 25% -$1
Pop-Culture
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
56 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes -80 -$38 89¢ $-71 -$34 09-21 22:25
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes -78 -$61 68¢ $-53 +$8 09-24 09:48
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No -55 -$38 70¢ $-38 +$0 09-23 02:45
Will Drake be featured on GTA VI: The Album? No -40 -$26 82¢ $-33 -$7 09-22 11:33
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No -78 -$17 32¢ $-25 -$8 09-24 09:48
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MN-06 House election by 10%-15%? Yes -20 -$7 98¢ $-20 -$13 09-17 02:55
Will Jacky Rosen vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? No -20 -$12 96¢ $-19 -$8 09-15 02:19
Will Doris Matsui win the CA-07 House seat? Yes -20 -$12 95¢ $-19 -$7 09-15 21:09
Will Frank Ocean be featured on GTA VI: The Album? No -20 -$11 87¢ $-17 -$6 09-23 03:25
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? No -20 -$3 87¢ $-17 -$14 09-16 14:42
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes -55 -$12 30¢ $-17 -$5 10-14 16:11
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina be between 4,100,000 and 4,300,000? Yes -17 -$10 94¢ $-16 -$6 09-20 18:31
Will Navdeep Bains win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election? No -20 -$10 71¢ $-14 -$4 09-13 00:54
Will Bad Bunny be featured on GTA VI: The Album? Yes -20 -$8 60¢ $-12 -$4 09-23 20:23
Will Antonio Martín del Campo win the 2027 Aguascalientes Governor Election? Yes -20 -$8 59¢ $-12 -$4 08-31 16:14
Will One Nation win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election? Yes -20 -$12 54¢ $-11 +$1 08-25 13:32
Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes -20 -$9 53¢ $-11 -$2 09-17 04:14
Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between -0.3% and -0.1%? No -18 $5 60¢ $-11 -$15 10-20 06:32
Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? No -20 -$9 46¢ $-9 $0 09-17 16:14
Will One Nation win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election? No -20 -$8 45¢ $-9 -$1 09-23 23:26
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No -80 -$42 11¢ $-9 +$34 09-22 00:01
Will Antonio Martín del Campo win the 2027 Aguascalientes Governor Election? No -20 -$12 41¢ $-8 +$4 08-31 18:33
Will Bad Bunny be featured on GTA VI: The Album? No -20 -$11 40¢ $-8 +$3 09-23 17:40
Will Drake be featured on GTA VI: The Album? Yes -40 -$13 18¢ $-7 +$6 09-21 23:10
Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between -0.3% and -0.1%? Yes -18 -$7 40¢ $-7 -$1 09-22 07:56
Will Navdeep Bains win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election? Yes -20 -$10 29¢ $-6 +$4 09-13 00:28
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? Yes -20 -$16 13¢ $-3 +$14 09-16 02:41
Will Frank Ocean be featured on GTA VI: The Album? Yes -20 -$5 13¢ $-3 +$3 09-23 15:26
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina be between 4,100,000 and 4,300,000? No -17 -$7 6¢ $-1 +$6 09-23 23:26
Will Doris Matsui win the CA-07 House seat? No -20 -$8 5¢ $-1 +$7 09-15 09:08