Likely-Manatee — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$22.7K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

54.0%

Resolved

36,254

Trades

129,063

lifetime

Volume

$370.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-03

last 10-28 21:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 235 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 53% +$22,746

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 2390 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	21	$197	288	+288	Up	+$91	05-20 10:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 06:30 UTC	27	$196	384	+384	Up	+$111	08-21 06:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-24 21:30 UTC	14	$189	386	+386	Down	-$30	07-24 21:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	4	$171	208	+208	Down	+$37	04-25 10:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	15	$169	452	+452	Up	-$169	10-16 01:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 13:30 UTC	30	$152	314	+314	Up	+$5	04-24 13:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	8	$150	262	+262	Down	+$23	04-25 11:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 12:30 UTC	23	$133	275	+275	Up	-$16	08-24 12:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	10	$129	191	+191	Up	+$12	05-31 21:04
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-06 13:30 UTC	30	$129	228	+228	Down	-$27	04-06 13:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	30	$127	287	+287	Down	-$127	05-20 08:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 11:15 UTC	30	$126	256	+256	Down	+$70	08-21 11:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-05 09:00 UTC	31	$125	271	+271	Down	+$72	04-05 09:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 21:40 UTC	9	$125	240	+240	Up	+$58	07-24 21:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 13:30 UTC	30	$122	255	+255	Up	+$41	04-23 13:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	9	$122	150	+150	Up	-$113	05-25 20:49
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-20 17:00 UTC	30	$122	190	+190	Down	-$85	03-20 17:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	11	$121	153	+153	Down	+$13	04-28 03:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 12:00 UTC	22	$120	206	+206	Up	+$8	04-23 12:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	18	$118	163	+163	Down	+$26	04-26 19:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 12:05 UTC	18	$117	251	+251	Up	-$20	04-23 12:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	26	$117	212	+212	Up	+$95	05-21 16:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-06 16:00 UTC	30	$116	246	+246	Up	+$28	04-06 16:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	24	$115	259	+259	Up	+$127	05-20 15:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	10	$113	177	+177	Up	-$80	04-27 22:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	4	$112	129	+129	Up	-$2	04-26 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	4	$110	120	+120	Up	-$5	04-28 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	12	$110	153	+153	Up	-$8	04-27 08:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-03 07:00 UTC	27	$110	220	+220	Up	-$1	04-03 07:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-26 23:45 UTC	15	$109	221	+221	Down	+$83	08-26 23:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 22:08:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0x6a4a4e…
10-28 22:02:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x1393ba…
10-28 21:01:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x1c1dcf…
10-28 21:00:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	41¢	$3	0x135ba8…
10-28 20:48:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x93ee1f…
10-28 19:49:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0x934e85…
10-28 19:46:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xa24f77…
10-28 19:46:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x9691b4…
10-28 19:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x99f51e…
10-28 19:32:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x100444…
10-28 19:31:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x13c282…
10-28 19:28:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0x523cba…
10-28 19:27:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x856fa7…
10-28 19:27:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0x792ac5…
10-28 19:26:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0x23068f…
10-28 19:26:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x2062c5…
10-28 19:06:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0xad2362…
10-28 19:05:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	49¢	$5	0x8b8e28…
10-28 19:05:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	47¢	$2	0x6c6c4f…
10-28 19:05:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x323e58…
10-28 19:01:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x39bf72…
10-28 18:57:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	60¢	$3	0x2e19bf…
10-28 18:57:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xf94a0d…
10-28 18:57:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0xf77f17…
10-28 18:55:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0x936304…
10-28 18:51:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x90c361…
10-28 18:51:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x356901…
10-28 18:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc190ae…
10-28 18:41:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	22	25¢	$5	0x407651…
10-28 18:36:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	65¢	$3	0xc0f98b…
10-28 18:35:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0x192e33…
10-28 18:35:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xce8366…
10-28 18:35:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x8430fd…
10-28 18:35:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x04e904…
10-28 18:35:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x550192…
10-28 18:35:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x54ef2f…
10-28 18:35:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x528635…
10-28 18:33:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	35	43¢	$15	0xbf54e9…
10-28 18:33:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$4	0x8f4847…
10-28 18:33:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	13	33¢	$4	0x8e09e0…
10-28 18:33:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	16	41¢	$7	0xb4e998…
10-28 18:30:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x8209c8…
10-28 18:18:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x2ceaf2…
10-28 18:12:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0xe9222b…
10-28 18:01:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xf04b95…
10-28 18:00:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x5f5869…
10-28 18:00:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xb26ae4…
10-28 18:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x796067…
10-28 18:00:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x3c23dc…
10-28 18:00:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x7b9713…
10-28 18:00:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x450fcb…
10-28 18:00:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x82adf6…
10-28 18:00:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	24	46¢	$11	0x1d147c…
10-28 18:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xc2215e…
10-28 18:00:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x6926f5…
10-28 18:00:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	23	38¢	$9	0x5ecfd5…
10-28 18:00:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	22	60¢	$13	0xb97668…
10-28 17:57:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x1123c5…
10-28 17:57:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x127c29…
10-28 17:57:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0x958e9b…
10-28 17:55:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0x3d0ffc…
10-28 17:50:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	17	25¢	$4	0x9c57a9…
10-28 17:13:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x444eee…
10-28 17:08:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$1	0x00f3ea…
10-28 16:51:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	38¢	$3	0xf9a3c5…
10-28 16:46:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x130c03…
10-28 16:45:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0xd9452f…
10-28 16:27:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0xae7ca5…
10-28 15:20:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0x492557…
10-28 15:10:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xd18d8c…
10-28 14:33:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	15	39¢	$6	0xb703c1…
10-28 14:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0x02c24c…
10-28 13:52:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xf77c1e…
10-28 13:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xe00af2…
10-28 13:40:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	46¢	$0	0x2421da…
10-28 13:35:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x6f9c11…
10-28 13:30:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x2015f0…
10-28 13:30:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xf952ac…
10-28 13:30:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xf2d067…
10-28 13:30:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	13	36¢	$5	0x3259b9…
10-28 13:28:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	13	71¢	$9	0xd8429a…
10-28 13:28:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x1aef99…
10-28 13:27:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xfa9f1f…
10-28 13:20:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	76¢	$1	0xfc5d72…
10-28 13:07:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xa1b4ad…
10-28 12:50:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0x58c288…
10-28 12:35:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0xdfab7e…
10-28 12:28:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$3	0xb3070d…
10-28 12:15:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	38¢	$2	0xcbd397…
10-28 12:15:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xdcf2a2…
10-28 12:15:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x78f253…
10-28 12:15:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x8a8cbf…
10-28 12:15:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xe937de…
10-28 12:10:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x13cceb…
10-28 12:08:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	9	38¢	$3	0x2b5d43…
10-28 11:55:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x76d534…
10-28 10:12:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xad722d…
10-28 10:10:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	13	27¢	$4	0x9243bd…
10-28 10:00:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0xf47ec7…
10-28 09:25:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x9de3ff…