Well-Informed-Ischemia — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$20

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

12.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$95.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$9.51K

Open exposure

$3.82K

7 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 05-14 20:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

84% 0% $-80

Other

16% 100% +$60

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?	No	+1,891	$1,778	99¢	$1.9K	+$102	05-14 01:31
Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.0B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+1,162	$1,145	71¢	$825	$-320	05-14 20:02
Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market close on IPO day?	No	+684	$667	95¢	$650	$-17	05-14 19:37
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	+270	$266	99¢	$266	+$1	05-12 00:13
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	+542	$114	35¢	$190	+$76	05-14 04:10
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	-9,555	$-153	0¢	$-10	+$143	05-11 02:41
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026?	Yes	+1,000	$1	0¢	$2	+$1	05-09 04:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 20:02:23	Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.0B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	1,162	99¢	$1,145	0xc97a82…
05-14 19:37:34	Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	684	97¢	$667	0xe25c18…
05-14 04:10:56	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	542	21¢	$114	0xa6e564…
05-14 01:31:48	Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	1,891	94¢	$1,778	0xe43046…
05-12 13:23:05	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	Yes	BUY	10,043	100¢	$10,031	0xf4d0bc…
05-12 00:13:52	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	270	98¢	$266	0x1aa5c4…
05-11 02:41:02	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	9,555	2¢	$153	0x3308f3…
05-09 18:40:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80,100	100¢	$80,020	0x269674…
05-09 04:07:27	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb84094…
05-06 21:41:24	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	994	95¢	$945	0xf80953…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$80.0K	0	80,100	-80,100	Yes	$-80	05-09 18:40
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	1	$10.0K	10,043	0	+10,043	Yes	+$12	05-12 13:23
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?	1	$1.8K	1,891	0	+1,891	open	—	05-14 01:31
Games Total: O/U 2.5	1	$945	994	0	+994	Under	+$49	05-06 21:41
Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market close on IPO day?	1	$667	684	0	+684	open	—	05-14 19:37
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	1	$266	270	0	+270	open	—	05-12 00:13
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	1	$153	0	9,555	-9,555	open	—	05-11 02:41
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	1	$114	542	0	+542	open	—	05-14 04:10
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026?	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	05-09 04:07