Weekly-Convection — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$534

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

22.6%

Resolved

Trades

13,474

lifetime

Volume

$392.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 10:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Other

53% 13% $-666

Politics

34% 0% $-0

Crypto

9% — —

Sports

2% 50% +$132

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 294 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	66	$6.8K	6,600	7,000	-400	open	—	01-20 11:06
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	63	$5.3K	4,646	5,246	-600	open	—	01-30 03:50
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	133	$4.8K	3,628	5,965	-2,337	open	—	03-30 05:32
will the us invade iran by march 31	55	$4.6K	3,986	7,026	-3,040	open	—	03-30 07:14
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	67	$4.0K	3,920	4,505	-585	open	—	01-30 06:35
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	75	$3.3K	2,540	3,910	-1,370	open	—	03-08 05:12
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	41	$3.3K	2,900	2,900	+0	open	—	02-28 03:58
will phan van giang be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	26	$3.3K	1,583	2,280	-697	open	—	01-21 11:55
epl mac ars 2026 04 19 spread home 1pt5	2	$3.3K	5,671	5,548	+122	open	—	04-19 16:56
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	81	$3.0K	2,701	3,351	-650	open	—	03-19 10:20
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	40	$3.0K	2,680	3,340	-661	open	—	05-30 09:28
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	36	$3.0K	3,198	3,500	-302	open	—	03-22 05:15
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	9	$2.9K	1,500	2,760	-1,260	open	—	01-21 05:53
us strikes iran by january 11 2026 946	15	$2.7K	1,400	1,800	-400	open	—	01-12 03:45
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	28	$2.7K	4,517	2,888	+1,629	open	—	02-19 14:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	45	$2.7K	2,753	3,720	-967	open	—	05-24 04:17
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	82	$2.6K	2,389	2,689	-300	open	—	01-30 04:20
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	124	$2.5K	2,155	2,875	-720	open	—	03-15 11:21
will the us next strike iran on january 16 2026 et 766	26	$2.2K	1,220	1,220	+0	open	—	01-15 10:52
epl lee ars 2026 01 31 total 3pt5	2	$2.1K	2,759	2,759	+0	open	—	01-31 16:31
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	16	$2.1K	1,436	2,256	-820	open	—	03-22 05:14
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	44	$2.1K	1,987	2,187	-200	open	—	04-20 11:47
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	24	$2.0K	3,270	3,270	+0	open	—	01-17 13:15
cbb lehi pvam 2026 03 18 total 142pt5	47	$1.7K	1,764	1,764	+0	open	—	03-17 13:29
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	34	$1.7K	1,920	2,120	-200	open	—	01-15 08:06
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	13	$1.7K	2,700	2,900	-200	open	—	04-06 11:13
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	22	$1.7K	1,500	1,800	-300	open	—	01-09 14:42
odds of khamenei being out as supreme leader by march 31 over 30 in february	25	$1.7K	1,365	1,697	-332	open	—	02-28 06:10
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	9	$1.7K	960	1,200	-240	open	—	04-04 10:04
will madison airs market cap be between 13pt0b and 13pt5b at market close on ipo day	72	$1.6K	1,981	1,439	+542	open	—	04-16 17:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 04:33:03	will kai or speed die to an enderman 20260806175301187	Yes	SELL	11	60¢	$7	0xef2b76…
08-10 10:11:40	will kai or speed die to an enderman 20260806175301187	Yes	BUY	11	77¢	$9	0xfec0f4…
08-10 05:38:42	will kai or speed die to an enderman 20260806175301187	Yes	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0xa749cc…
08-10 05:33:25	will kai or speed die to an enderman 20260806175301187	Yes	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xc32e1a…
08-10 05:07:52	will kai or speed die to an enderman 20260806175301187	Yes	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0x76ba5b…
08-10 05:05:42	will kai or speed die to an enderman 20260806175301187	Yes	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xe80daf…
08-10 04:58:27	will trump say american patriot during tele rally 20260809153916663	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x84067d…
08-07 05:24:25	will nininho vaz maia attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260807000540828	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0xa727a6…
08-07 05:23:48	will nininho vaz maia attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260807000540828	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xe8e53c…
08-07 05:02:15	stripchain fdv above 80m one day after launch 20260805194717736	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x59dba7…
08-07 04:48:46	stripchain fdv above 80m one day after launch 20260805194717736	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x37f04a…
08-07 04:35:21	will trump say biden 3 times during friday roundtable 20260805211427273	No	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0xf296d2…
08-06 04:52:44	will trump say obama during friday roundtable 20260805211427292	No	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0xf71001…
08-06 04:52:06	will trump say biden 3 times during friday roundtable 20260805211427273	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x477145…
08-06 04:50:26	will trump say obama during friday roundtable 20260805211427292	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x11fe54…
08-05 05:09:51	will giorgio chiellini attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630268	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0x97abed…
08-05 04:59:59	will giorgio chiellini attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630268	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x11e191…
08-05 04:51:29	will giorgio chiellini attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630268	No	SELL	4	91¢	$4	0x6eec42…
08-05 04:40:09	will giorgio chiellini attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630268	No	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x2fd458…
08-05 04:34:42	will giorgio chiellini attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630268	No	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0xea9526…
08-05 04:34:14	will giorgio chiellini attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630268	No	SELL	3	91¢	$3	0x432545…
08-05 04:33:45	will giorgio chiellini attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630268	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x65becd…
08-05 04:33:38	will giorgio chiellini attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630268	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x4bf192…
08-05 04:30:45	will giorgio chiellini attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630268	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xcbd014…
08-05 04:30:41	will giorgio chiellini attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630268	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0xaeb218…
08-05 04:30:39	will giorgio chiellini attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630268	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x23b8cd…
08-05 04:21:38	will giorgio chiellini attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630268	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xd3e9dc…
08-04 05:12:09	will trump say hell 8 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421447	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0xcad94f…
08-04 04:56:26	will trump say hell 8 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421447	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x06d49e…
08-02 05:41:39	will donald trump publicly insult candace owens by august 31 2026 20260730161742245	Yes	SELL	18	44¢	$8	0x82d121…
08-02 05:38:05	will donald trump publicly insult candace owens by august 31 2026 20260730161742245	Yes	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0x40f072…
08-01 04:53:27	will byron buxton be traded by the 2026 mlb trade deadline 20260728182533466	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x6b202a…
08-01 04:30:53	will byron buxton be traded by the 2026 mlb trade deadline 20260728182533466	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x0ddc38…
08-01 04:29:44	will spider man brand new day beat avengers endgames opening weekend record 20260731162713556	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x51cd6b…
08-01 04:27:18	will spider man brand new day beat avengers endgames opening weekend record 20260731162713556	Yes	BUY	4	36¢	$1	0x11eb0a…
08-01 04:24:50	will spider man brand new day beat avengers endgames opening weekend record 20260731162713556	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xdab076…
08-01 04:16:12	will spider man brand new day beat avengers endgames opening weekend record 20260731162713556	Yes	BUY	15	36¢	$5	0xe6426b…
07-31 05:04:39	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xd8ad5d…
07-28 06:50:51	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x431db4…
07-26 07:38:09	will trump post uranium on truth social this week 20260724154822862	Yes	SELL	30	42¢	$13	0x9c92c9…
07-26 07:37:57	will fear be in the headlines this week 20260724154559252	No	SELL	30	50¢	$15	0xab3b7d…
07-26 07:17:42	will trump post uranium on truth social this week 20260724154822862	Yes	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0x354ddc…
07-26 07:17:00	will fear be in the headlines this week 20260724154559252	No	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0xd471ca…
07-26 06:56:28	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	36	62¢	$22	0xad0bb6…
07-24 08:45:49	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xb89ada…
07-24 08:14:18	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x4be940…
07-22 04:31:22	will trump say transgender during remarks in georgia 20260720190340719	No	SELL	67	30¢	$20	0x806f60…
07-22 04:30:33	will trump say booming during remarks in georgia 20260720190340711	Yes	BUY	63	51¢	$32	0x53d4d9…
07-21 10:41:48	will trump say transgender during remarks in georgia 20260720190340719	No	BUY	67	45¢	$30	0xbc876d…
07-21 10:37:21	will trumps remarks not air 20260720190340729	Yes	BUY	222	5¢	$10	0x17166e…
07-20 04:45:36	iran successfully targets shipping by july 24 20260718200145713	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x5c9018…
07-20 04:23:46	iran successfully targets shipping by july 24 20260718200145713	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x571885…
07-18 09:21:54	columbus air quality index below 100 by july 18 2026 20260717132724265	Yes	SELL	40	63¢	$25	0x1fab56…
07-18 08:36:15	columbus air quality index below 100 by july 18 2026 20260717132724265	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x9e5936…
07-18 08:31:22	columbus air quality index below 100 by july 18 2026 20260717132724265	No	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xf3a7be…
07-18 08:20:18	columbus air quality index below 100 by july 18 2026 20260717132724265	No	BUY	11	24¢	$3	0x1c45f4…
07-18 08:20:06	columbus air quality index below 100 by july 18 2026 20260717132724265	No	BUY	9	24¢	$2	0xb0bc11…
07-18 07:53:54	columbus air quality index below 100 by july 18 2026 20260717132724265	Yes	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x0a7b3e…
07-18 07:50:42	columbus air quality index below 100 by july 18 2026 20260717132724265	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xdbdd8c…
07-18 07:34:57	will a goal be scored during 46 60 minute 20260716181534259	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xae03dc…
07-18 07:34:43	will a goal be scored during 31 45 minute 20260716181534258	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x413609…
07-17 07:23:36	will a goal be scored during 76 90 minute 20260716181534261	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0xa84de8…
07-17 07:23:22	will a goal be scored during 76 90 minute 20260716181534261	Yes	SELL	40	47¢	$19	0x5d42fc…
07-17 06:22:58	will a goal be scored during 76 90 minute 20260716181534261	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x386d80…
07-17 06:04:42	will a goal be scored during 76 90 minute 20260716181534261	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xf281cd…
07-17 05:47:43	will a goal be scored during 46 60 minute 20260716181534259	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x976546…
07-17 05:45:21	will a goal be scored during 31 45 minute 20260716181534258	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xe226c2…
07-17 05:37:40	will david beckham attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357119	Yes	SELL	16	92¢	$15	0x792f3c…
07-17 05:35:45	will david beckham attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357119	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x5292fe…
07-17 05:34:51	will david beckham attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357119	Yes	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x1bc875…
07-17 05:30:49	will david beckham attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357119	Yes	SELL	4	92¢	$4	0xd34e67…
07-17 05:23:33	will the announcers say legacy during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956890	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x2c57de…
07-17 04:58:27	will david beckham attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357119	Yes	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x7401a2…
07-17 04:53:13	will david beckham attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357119	Yes	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xc92441…
07-17 04:52:15	will david beckham attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357119	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x9551f0…
07-15 05:06:04	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026 20260715004553750	No	SELL	50	58¢	$29	0xb4887b…
07-15 05:05:50	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by december 31 2026 20260715004553749	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x39315b…
07-15 04:37:47	will the announcers say shot 15 times during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905965	Yes	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x048091…
07-15 04:37:31	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by december 31 2026 20260715004553748	No	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x61ab0d…
07-15 04:37:17	will the announcers say free kick 10 times during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905966	No	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x621af0…
07-15 04:37:10	will the announcers say shot 15 times during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905965	Yes	BUY	14	58¢	$8	0x88736b…
07-15 04:37:08	will the announcers say shot 15 times during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905965	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xe01f0e…
07-15 04:37:08	will the announcers say shot 15 times during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905965	Yes	BUY	1	58¢	$1	0x61a3bf…
07-15 04:29:44	will the announcers say free kick 10 times during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905966	No	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x1be74b…
07-15 04:28:59	will the announcers say free kick 10 times during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905966	No	BUY	18	35¢	$6	0xad1ff1…
07-15 04:24:05	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026 20260715004553750	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xd644ac…
07-15 04:23:53	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by december 31 2026 20260715004553748	No	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xfcaeae…
07-15 04:23:16	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by december 31 2026 20260715004553749	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x7be2af…
07-14 08:04:47	will trump accuse iran of election interference by july 16 20260714013930796	No	SELL	22	42¢	$9	0x26b4eb…
07-14 07:37:56	will trump accuse iran of election interference by july 16 20260714013930796	No	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0xd38ddc…
07-14 07:36:53	will trump accuse iran of election interference by july 16 20260714013930796	No	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0xe8c0a6…
07-14 06:29:49	will trump accuse iran of election interference by july 16 20260714013930796	No	SELL	26	42¢	$11	0x11e968…
07-14 06:20:35	will trump accuse iran of election interference by july 16 20260714013930796	No	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0x653969…
07-14 06:20:05	will trump accuse iran of election interference by july 16 20260714013930796	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x76b9ab…
07-14 05:55:16	will mike trout record a hit at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714022249818	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0xe8bfa9…
07-14 05:55:04	will junior caminero record a hit at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714022249816	Yes	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x1a6e89…
07-14 05:54:52	will yordan alvarez record a hit at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714022249819	Yes	SELL	40	41¢	$16	0x2a2edc…
07-14 05:54:40	will bobby witt jrpt record a hit at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714022249817	Yes	SELL	70	46¢	$32	0xe626c4…
07-14 05:38:44	will mike trout record a hit at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714022249818	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xe20f15…
07-14 05:37:58	will junior caminero record a hit at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714022249816	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xb69dc5…