Weekly-Convection — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14.4K

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

35.7%

Resolved

2,217

Trades

14,912

lifetime

Volume

$421.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

$25

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-20 10:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 259 days

Categories

Other

54% 27% -$7,853

Politics

34% 31% -$1,680

Crypto

8% 50% -$2,693

Sports

2% 20% -$2,054

Tech

1% 31% -$6

Pop-Culture

0% 19% -$128

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-40	-$20	58¢	$-23	-$3	06-01 05:07
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-20	-$10	6¢	$-1	+$9	06-01 08:46
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+37	$2	2¢	$1	-$1	10-20 10:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	66	$6.8K	6,600	7,000	-400	No	-$70	01-20 11:06
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	63	$5.3K	4,646	5,246	-600	No	-$195	01-30 03:50
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	133	$4.8K	3,628	5,965	-2,337	Yes	-$240	03-30 05:32
will the us invade iran by march 31	55	$4.6K	3,986	7,026	-3,040	No	+$159	03-30 07:14
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	67	$4.0K	3,920	4,505	-585	No	-$301	01-30 06:35
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	75	$3.3K	2,540	3,910	-1,370	Yes	-$360	03-08 05:12
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	41	$3.3K	2,900	2,900	+0	Yes	-$5	02-28 03:58
will phan van giang be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	26	$3.3K	1,583	2,280	-697	No	-$35	01-21 11:55
epl mac ars 2026 04 19 spread home 1pt5	2	$3.3K	5,671	5,548	+122	Arsenal FC	+$77	04-19 16:56
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	81	$3.0K	2,701	3,351	-650	No	+$135	03-19 10:20
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	40	$3.0K	2,680	3,340	-661	Yes	+$198	05-30 09:28
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	36	$3.0K	3,198	3,500	-302	No	+$96	03-22 05:15
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	9	$2.9K	1,500	2,760	-1,260	Yes	-$92	01-21 05:53
us strikes iran by january 11 2026 946	15	$2.7K	1,400	1,800	-400	No	+$3	01-12 03:45
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	28	$2.7K	4,517	2,888	+1,629	Yes	+$1,250	02-19 14:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	45	$2.7K	2,753	3,720	-967	No	-$341	05-24 04:17
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	82	$2.6K	2,389	2,689	-300	Yes	+$139	01-30 04:20
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	124	$2.5K	2,155	2,875	-720	Yes	-$7	03-15 11:21
will the us next strike iran on january 16 2026 et 766	26	$2.2K	1,220	1,220	+0	No	+$9	01-15 10:52
epl lee ars 2026 01 31 total 3pt5	2	$2.1K	2,759	2,759	+0	Over	+$525	01-31 16:31
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	16	$2.1K	1,436	2,256	-820	No	+$77	03-22 05:14
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	44	$2.1K	1,987	2,187	-200	No	-$119	04-20 11:47
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	24	$2.0K	3,270	3,270	+0	No	-$181	01-17 13:15
cbb lehi pvam 2026 03 18 total 142pt5	47	$1.7K	1,764	1,764	+0	Under	$0	03-17 13:29
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	34	$1.7K	1,920	2,120	-200	No	-$66	01-15 08:06
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	13	$1.7K	2,700	2,900	-200	Yes	-$140	04-06 11:13
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	22	$1.7K	1,500	1,800	-300	Yes	-$254	01-09 14:42
odds of khamenei being out as supreme leader by march 31 over 30 in february	25	$1.7K	1,365	1,697	-332	Yes	-$471	02-28 06:10
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	9	$1.7K	960	1,200	-240	Yes	-$81	04-04 10:04
will madison airs market cap be between 13pt0b and 13pt5b at market close on ipo day	72	$1.6K	1,981	1,439	+542	No	-$335	04-16 17:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 10:35:05	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	6¢	$2	0x917085…
10-17 05:34:50	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x23a7ce…
10-17 05:34:34	Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)	Manchester City FC	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xe54f0b…
10-17 05:34:13	Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xb8ec46…
10-17 05:33:44	Will Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x300539…
10-05 05:16:32	Will Italy vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xb8a129…
10-04 03:51:44	Will France vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xb6e520…
10-04 03:51:10	Will Wales vs. Denmark end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xbfc589…
10-04 03:50:55	Will Portugal vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x505c15…
10-04 03:50:31	Will Greece vs. Germany end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x86d934…
10-02 04:48:56	Will Cyprus vs. Armenia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x45b99f…
10-02 04:48:41	Will Latvia vs. Montenegro end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x6cade0…
10-02 04:48:12	Will Kazakhstan vs. Moldova end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x066426…
10-01 06:31:42	Will Greece vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x2e0a07…
10-01 06:26:38	Will Denmark vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x98ac6c…
10-01 06:26:18	Will Greece vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xf2e966…
10-01 06:25:56	Will Norway win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x370075…
09-28 04:44:38	Will Belgium vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xd1854b…
09-28 04:44:21	Will Türkiye vs. Italy end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x8cd751…
09-28 04:43:45	Georgia vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x85de1d…
09-28 04:43:20	Spread: Montenegro (-1.5)	Montenegro	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x182859…
09-27 07:40:32	Will Norway vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x6c19d0…
09-27 07:40:06	Will Israel vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xfeef4d…
09-27 07:39:38	Will Denmark vs. Wales end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x8d4740…
09-27 07:39:18	Will Kosovo win on 2026-09-27?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x7723cb…
09-27 07:38:51	Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-09-27?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x9f8844…
09-25 08:32:54	Will Armenia win on 2026-09-25?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xaed548…
09-25 08:32:35	Will Georgia win on 2026-09-25?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xe509a5…
09-25 08:31:59	Will Italy vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x75a1dc…
09-25 08:31:32	Türkiye vs. France: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x944a65…
09-24 04:13:38	Will Andorra vs. Malta end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xf586c4…
09-24 04:13:17	Will IR Iran win on 2026-09-24?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xe36219…
09-24 04:12:53	Will Ecuador win on 2026-09-24?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x892aff…
09-24 04:12:30	Will Japan win on 2026-09-24?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x9aca48…
09-23 04:49:52	Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	35	16¢	$6	0x38d4ef…
09-19 06:04:37	Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x2ddab2…
09-17 07:15:09	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x41891d…
09-17 07:14:01	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x2e365d…
09-17 07:13:36	Will Brentford FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xc7be78…
09-17 05:50:30	wti up or down on september 17 2026	Up	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x5da666…
09-17 05:50:13	Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have 163 or more seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x21e9f1…
09-17 05:49:55	will resident evil score at least 94 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x8382d0…
09-17 05:49:21	fds quarterly earnings nongaap eps 09 30 2026 4pt38	No	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xbb7021…
09-17 05:48:39	will resident evil score at least 94 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0xa1ee58…
09-17 05:48:37	will resident evil score at least 94 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xe3c7e3…
09-17 05:45:34	Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have 163 or more seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xc91e03…
09-17 05:33:49	wti up or down on september 17 2026	Up	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x1f9fb3…
09-17 05:22:24	fds quarterly earnings nongaap eps 09 30 2026 4pt38	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x2929eb…
09-14 05:46:21	Will Leeds United FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x3d5547…
09-13 08:20:16	Will Leeds United FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x814223…
09-13 08:19:58	Will Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xca261a…
09-13 08:19:36	Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xb72ff0…
09-06 13:32:37	Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	41	35¢	$14	0x13e990…
09-05 16:11:28	Hull City AFC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x8270e1…
09-03 05:59:07	Ipswich Town FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x9fced8…
09-03 05:58:27	Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-09-04?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x9f48e5…
09-03 05:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x8b6b39…
09-03 05:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc98f04…
08-31 05:03:36	Aston Villa FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x64f2ab…
08-31 05:03:03	Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x1b2b44…
08-29 07:14:49	Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)	Manchester United FC	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xcc8f22…
08-29 07:13:36	Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-08-29?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xc51385…
08-29 07:13:10	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-29?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x91f0e4…
08-22 16:16:49	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-08-22?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xae6879…
08-22 16:16:21	Will Brentford FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	58	26¢	$15	0xbcf5bd…
08-22 14:26:49	Will Everton FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xaec472…
08-22 13:39:57	epl ips sun 2026 08 22 spread away 1pt5	Sunderland AFC	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x94e680…
08-22 13:36:45	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-08-23?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x4fcb15…
08-22 04:53:54	will anthropic ipo by october 15 2026 949	Yes	SELL	3	54¢	$2	0x013752…
08-22 04:52:09	will anthropic ipo by october 15 2026 949	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0xf07ac4…
08-20 04:22:46	will trump say communist communism during his rally with darline graham	Yes	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0xad8429…
08-20 04:22:10	will trump say communist communism during his rally with darline graham	Yes	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xee9bbd…
08-20 04:21:54	will trump say communist communism during his rally with darline graham	Yes	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x7f3b7a…
08-16 04:37:28	Will Schalke 04 vs. Real Madrid end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	27	16¢	$4	0xb8c1a5…
08-16 04:36:48	Will FC Basel 1893 vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x801845…
08-16 04:34:37	ecs ars mci 2026 08 16 spread home 1pt5	Arsenal FC	BUY	42	16¢	$7	0x458bda…
08-16 04:33:55	Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xe3d515…
08-15 05:43:46	bulbasaur price up down on august 31 20260814122817119	Down	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x3545db…
08-15 05:43:33	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0xa65202…
08-15 05:33:48	bulbasaur price up down on august 31 20260814122817119	Down	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x371ad5…
08-15 05:24:10	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x5b4249…
08-15 05:13:13	charizard ex price up down on august 31 20260814122817115	Down	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x1f152b…
08-15 05:09:06	charizard ex price up down on august 31 20260814122817115	Down	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x67598a…
08-14 08:34:57	Will Olympique Marseille vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x111977…
08-14 05:40:22	will openais astra model debut on the arena leaderboard at a score of at least 1490	Yes	SELL	50	64¢	$32	0xe09b46…
08-14 05:38:48	will openais astra model debut on the arena leaderboard at a score of at least 1490	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0xde6ae4…
08-14 05:38:43	will openais astra model debut on the arena leaderboard at a score of at least 1490	Yes	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xb9390a…
08-14 05:24:27	Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0x49617e…
08-14 05:24:10	Will Gen.G Win the Shortest Game in LCK 2026 Rounds 3-4?	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x07caf2…
08-14 04:58:01	Will Gen.G Win the Shortest Game in LCK 2026 Rounds 3-4?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x1f6be1…
08-14 04:51:33	Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	50¢	$6	0x23c026…
08-14 04:51:30	Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0x233901…
08-14 04:46:33	will openais astra model debut on the arena leaderboard at a score of at least 1480	Yes	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x931012…
08-14 04:45:48	will openais astra model debut on the arena leaderboard at a score of at least 1480	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x634f72…
08-12 12:34:31	uel paf rbs 2026 08 13 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xbce1cf…
08-12 12:34:15	uel gor1 ftc 2026 08 13 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x8ea97e…
08-11 04:46:00	Will NEC vs. Olympiakós SFP end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	22	29¢	$6	0xdd9143…
08-11 04:44:09	Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. AC Sparta Praha end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xb71c51…
08-11 04:40:09	Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. RU Saint-Gilloise end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x03a5b4…
08-11 04:33:03	will kai or speed die to an enderman 20260806175301187	Yes	SELL	11	60¢	$7	0xef2b76…