Weekly-Convection — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$534

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

22.6%

Resolved

Trades

13,274

lifetime

Volume

$389.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-28 11:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Other

53% 13% $-666

Politics

35% 0% $-0

Crypto

8% — —

Sports

2% 50% +$132

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 294 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	66	$6.8K	6,600	7,000	-400	open	—	01-20 11:06
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	63	$5.3K	4,646	5,246	-600	open	—	01-30 03:50
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	133	$4.8K	3,628	5,965	-2,337	open	—	03-30 05:32
will the us invade iran by march 31	55	$4.6K	3,986	7,026	-3,040	open	—	03-30 07:14
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	67	$4.0K	3,920	4,505	-585	open	—	01-30 06:35
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	75	$3.3K	2,540	3,910	-1,370	open	—	03-08 05:12
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	41	$3.3K	2,900	2,900	+0	open	—	02-28 03:58
will phan van giang be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	26	$3.3K	1,583	2,280	-697	open	—	01-21 11:55
epl mac ars 2026 04 19 spread home 1pt5	2	$3.3K	5,671	5,548	+122	open	—	04-19 16:56
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	81	$3.0K	2,701	3,351	-650	open	—	03-19 10:20
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	40	$3.0K	2,680	3,340	-661	open	—	05-30 09:28
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	36	$3.0K	3,198	3,500	-302	open	—	03-22 05:15
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	9	$2.9K	1,500	2,760	-1,260	open	—	01-21 05:53
us strikes iran by january 11 2026 946	15	$2.7K	1,400	1,800	-400	open	—	01-12 03:45
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	28	$2.7K	4,517	2,888	+1,629	open	—	02-19 14:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	45	$2.7K	2,753	3,720	-967	open	—	05-24 04:17
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	82	$2.6K	2,389	2,689	-300	open	—	01-30 04:20
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	124	$2.5K	2,155	2,875	-720	open	—	03-15 11:21
will the us next strike iran on january 16 2026 et 766	26	$2.2K	1,220	1,220	+0	open	—	01-15 10:52
epl lee ars 2026 01 31 total 3pt5	2	$2.1K	2,759	2,759	+0	open	—	01-31 16:31
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	16	$2.1K	1,436	2,256	-820	open	—	03-22 05:14
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	44	$2.1K	1,987	2,187	-200	open	—	04-20 11:47
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	24	$2.0K	3,270	3,270	+0	open	—	01-17 13:15
cbb lehi pvam 2026 03 18 total 142pt5	47	$1.7K	1,764	1,764	+0	open	—	03-17 13:29
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	34	$1.7K	1,920	2,120	-200	open	—	01-15 08:06
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	13	$1.7K	2,700	2,900	-200	open	—	04-06 11:13
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	22	$1.7K	1,500	1,800	-300	open	—	01-09 14:42
odds of khamenei being out as supreme leader by march 31 over 30 in february	25	$1.7K	1,365	1,697	-332	open	—	02-28 06:10
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	9	$1.7K	960	1,200	-240	open	—	04-04 10:04
will madison airs market cap be between 13pt0b and 13pt5b at market close on ipo day	72	$1.6K	1,981	1,439	+542	open	—	04-16 17:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 11:58:14	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	49	44¢	$21	0xc1b2c2…
06-25 05:58:23	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 31 2026 20260624195228149	No	SELL	60	8¢	$5	0x4b26c3…
06-25 05:01:07	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 31 2026 20260624195228149	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x65c7df…
06-24 06:59:01	will the next prime minister of romania be appointed by july 31 20260623155722752	No	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x27cff7…
06-24 06:25:01	will the next prime minister of romania be appointed by july 31 20260623155722752	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xef2a02…
06-24 06:18:56	will the next prime minister of romania be appointed by july 31 20260623155722752	No	SELL	40	45¢	$18	0xa78bb7…
06-24 06:18:41	will the next prime minister of romania be appointed by december 31 20260623155722753	No	SELL	60	15¢	$9	0xcc35d1…
06-24 06:18:29	will xauusd dip to 4000 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	150	59¢	$89	0xb84170…
06-24 06:13:38	will xauusd dip to 4000 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x584368…
06-24 06:12:55	will the next prime minister of romania be appointed by december 31 20260623155722753	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xb0bfa4…
06-24 06:12:37	will the next prime minister of romania be appointed by december 31 20260623155722753	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x365d57…
06-24 06:12:28	will the next prime minister of romania be appointed by december 31 20260623155722753	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x16014f…
06-24 06:11:53	will the next prime minister of romania be appointed by july 31 20260623155722752	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x118f04…
06-24 06:11:49	will the next prime minister of romania be appointed by july 31 20260623155722752	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xb9e79a…
06-23 11:21:50	will christian pulisic score 4 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611150649595	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x3e081c…
06-23 08:23:38	will the announcers say nutmeg meg during the england vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260622180729520	No	SELL	80	35¢	$28	0x742379…
06-23 08:23:25	will the announcers say golden boot during the england vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260622180729515	No	SELL	80	70¢	$56	0x40c446…
06-23 08:11:17	will the announcers say golden boot during the england vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260622180729515	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x29ec9a…
06-23 07:53:44	will the announcers say nutmeg meg during the england vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260622180729520	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xdd5006…
06-23 07:47:11	will the announcers say what a save during the portugal vs uzbekistan fifa world cup match 20260622180548681	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x304a1d…
06-23 07:46:59	will the announcers say hattrick hat trick during the england vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260622180729518	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x624554…
06-23 07:46:47	will the announcers say what a save during the portugal vs uzbekistan fifa world cup match 20260622180548681	Yes	SELL	55	27¢	$15	0x119f39…
06-23 07:46:32	will the announcers say qatar during the portugal vs uzbekistan fifa world cup match 20260622180548671	No	SELL	80	26¢	$21	0x9289c3…
06-23 07:32:56	will the announcers say what a save during the portugal vs uzbekistan fifa world cup match 20260622180548681	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x5ff570…
06-23 07:25:19	will the announcers say qatar during the portugal vs uzbekistan fifa world cup match 20260622180548671	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x1f49d1…
06-23 07:16:49	will the announcers say hattrick hat trick during the england vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260622180729518	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x139b9e…
06-23 06:23:14	will the announcers say hattrick hat trick during the england vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260622180729518	Yes	SELL	6	54¢	$3	0x1050df…
06-23 06:22:37	will the announcers say penalty shootout during the england vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260622180729521	No	SELL	7	76¢	$5	0xa69ea0…
06-23 06:15:10	will the announcers say penalty shootout during the england vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260622180729521	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xfbc69d…
06-23 05:51:32	will the announcers say hattrick hat trick during the england vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260622180729518	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xe95e5e…
06-23 05:51:02	will the announcers say hattrick hat trick during the england vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260622180729518	Yes	SELL	14	55¢	$8	0x006f63…
06-23 05:39:13	will the announcers say hattrick hat trick during the england vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260622180729518	Yes	BUY	14	55¢	$8	0x4714e9…
06-21 05:18:34	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	303	33¢	$100	0x936ced…
06-20 05:31:10	will titan launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x685b54…
06-20 05:08:08	will titan launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	11	42¢	$5	0xa6df38…
06-20 05:07:01	will titan launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0x85acae…
06-19 10:18:16	fifwc bra hai 2026 06 19 total 7pt5	Over	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xd58bfa…
06-19 10:17:56	fifwc bra hai 2026 06 19 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x702079…
06-18 07:34:14	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	12	71¢	$9	0xe8d9bc…
06-18 07:34:14	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	12	71¢	$8	0xbc1446…
06-18 07:34:14	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	12	71¢	$9	0xb68889…
06-18 07:34:14	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xb4b11c…
06-18 07:34:14	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x900672…
06-18 07:34:14	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0x72c010…
06-18 07:34:14	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0x6fac94…
06-18 07:34:14	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x651e14…
06-18 07:34:14	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x64e993…
06-18 07:34:14	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	12	71¢	$9	0x63b43e…
06-18 07:34:14	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	11	71¢	$8	0x5380e4…
06-18 07:34:14	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0x50cf6c…
06-18 07:34:14	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	11	71¢	$8	0x43c9f7…
06-18 07:34:14	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0x3a7635…
06-18 07:34:14	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	21	71¢	$15	0x2bc42c…
06-18 07:34:14	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	12	71¢	$9	0x212b8a…
06-18 07:34:14	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	11	71¢	$8	0x18d3af…
06-18 07:33:53	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	6	71¢	$5	0xb066ac…
06-18 07:33:53	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xaaaa80…
06-18 07:33:53	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Down	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x48be06…
06-18 07:25:10	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Up	BUY	41	48¢	$20	0xd3050e…
06-18 07:25:05	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x9739e7…
06-18 07:25:04	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Up	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0xd0ae7f…
06-18 07:24:08	btc updown 15m 1781767800	Up	BUY	130	48¢	$63	0xf037a7…
06-18 07:13:53	will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	Yes	SELL	810	10¢	$78	0x8393d7…
06-18 07:12:02	will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	Yes	BUY	810	12¢	$100	0xffab1d…
06-18 07:00:10	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x7b23b0…
06-18 07:00:10	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x69da83…
06-18 07:00:10	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Down	BUY	43	49¢	$21	0x2a9544…
06-18 07:00:10	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x151e04…
06-18 07:00:08	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xfcbf73…
06-18 07:00:08	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xe51964…
06-18 07:00:07	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xf8c64b…
06-18 07:00:07	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x66ee5a…
06-18 07:00:05	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Down	BUY	19	49¢	$9	0x3d01f9…
06-18 07:00:04	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Down	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x655147…
06-18 07:00:04	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Down	BUY	67	49¢	$33	0x464e6c…
06-18 06:59:43	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xd2c6f1…
06-18 06:59:35	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Up	BUY	9	49¢	$4	0xa80ec3…
06-18 06:59:29	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Up	BUY	25	49¢	$12	0xb22aee…
06-18 06:59:04	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x317597…
06-18 06:58:29	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xb1876f…
06-18 06:58:29	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Up	BUY	18	49¢	$9	0x5c8ac5…
06-18 06:58:29	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x299574…
06-18 06:57:05	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Up	BUY	108	49¢	$53	0x97052b…
06-18 06:57:04	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Up	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x9aee3a…
06-18 06:55:13	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xbf5b3b…
06-18 06:54:40	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x70abca…
06-18 06:54:20	btc updown 15m 1781766000	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x38871d…
06-18 06:46:58	will the announcers say shot 20 times during the mexico vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260616192751353	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xe8e5ce…
06-18 06:43:44	btc updown 15m 1781764200	Up	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0xe22c93…
06-18 06:30:23	btc updown 15m 1781764200	Up	BUY	7	49¢	$3	0xf70e6f…
06-18 06:30:22	btc updown 15m 1781764200	Up	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xef56b1…
06-18 06:30:22	btc updown 15m 1781764200	Up	BUY	104	49¢	$51	0xe09c86…
06-18 06:30:22	btc updown 15m 1781764200	Up	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xda3117…
06-18 06:30:22	btc updown 15m 1781764200	Up	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0xc77bd5…
06-18 06:30:22	btc updown 15m 1781764200	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xc770b3…
06-18 06:30:22	btc updown 15m 1781764200	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xbc978a…
06-18 06:30:22	btc updown 15m 1781764200	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x932770…
06-18 06:30:22	btc updown 15m 1781764200	Up	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x66e7fe…
06-18 06:30:22	btc updown 15m 1781764200	Up	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x3824b3…
06-18 06:30:22	btc updown 15m 1781764200	Up	BUY	7	49¢	$3	0x319f1e…