Euphoric-Contrail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$450

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

48.3%

Resolved

909

Trades

4,692

lifetime

Volume

$6.51K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$41

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-05 10:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 54 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 58% -$395

Politics

2% 33% -$26

Other

1% 0% -$29

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes		+67	$40	55¢	$37	-$3	11-05 10:49
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes		+15	$4	23¢	$4	$0	11-05 10:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?	3	$316	486	102	+384	Yes	-$290	02-24 07:47
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	4	$206	178	178	+0	No	+$35	03-24 07:47
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 13:45 UTC	112	$102	92	89	+3	Down	-$9	01-10 13:58
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 13:15 UTC	108	$99	91	71	+19	Up	-$15	01-10 13:29
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?	3	$97	62	62	+0	Yes	+$17	03-31 13:19
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$90	123	0	+123	Yes	+$33	11-02 09:28
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 12:45 UTC	80	$81	62	59	+3	Up	+$0	01-10 12:59
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$80	40	40	+0	open	—	11-05 10:49
Flying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch?	2	$79	87	87	+0	Yes	-$1	02-10 14:51
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-12 18:15 UTC	78	$77	67	64	+3	Up	-$2	01-12 18:28
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$76	75	75	+0	Yes	-$4	03-30 08:56
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 14:00 UTC	74	$70	59	56	+3	Down	-$5	01-10 14:11
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	2	$63	61	61	+0	No	-$4	07-05 20:59
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 12:30 UTC	57	$62	43	41	+1	Down	+$5	01-10 12:40
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-03 21:30 UTC	25	$59	48	48	+0	Up	-$1	01-03 21:41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	5	$58	44,667	0	+44,667	Yes	-$58	05-09 18:35
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	6	$58	719	118	+601	Yes	+$13	03-24 21:25
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 13:00 UTC	51	$57	38	37	+1	Down	+$6	01-10 13:11
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 14:15 UTC	60	$55	43	42	+1	Down	-$5	01-10 14:30
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 15:45 UTC	53	$53	41	37	+4	Down	-$1	01-10 15:59
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 18:30 UTC	45	$49	44	27	+17	Up	-$5	01-05 18:40
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 19:30 UTC	54	$48	51	40	+11	Up	-$3	01-10 19:44
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 11:30 UTC	36	$43	30	27	+3	Down	+$0	01-10 11:44
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-04 17:00 UTC	39	$42	33	26	+7	Down	-$2	01-04 17:14
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-11 11:00 UTC	44	$42	37	34	+3	Up	-$3	01-11 11:12
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 12:15 UTC	39	$41	27	26	+1	Up	+$3	01-10 12:28
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$40	67	0	+67	open	—	11-05 10:49
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 11:45 UTC	37	$40	24	23	+1	Down	+$4	01-10 11:59
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 10:15 UTC	38	$39	33	27	+6	Down	-$1	01-05 10:29
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 19:00 UTC	38	$39	37	21	+15	Up	-$8	01-05 19:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 10:51:51	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x0040a2…
11-05 10:49:55	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	67	60¢	$40	0x3e268a…
11-05 10:49:36	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	40	98¢	$40	0x01c91d…
11-05 10:49:22	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x68672d…
11-02 09:28:04	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	123	73¢	$90	0x0da160…
10-21 13:25:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5a1e92…
10-21 13:25:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4c6298…
10-21 13:18:53	Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0xd375a0…
10-21 13:18:29	Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2027?	No	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0x27ae0b…
09-25 11:53:38	Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x3f49ec…
09-25 11:52:09	Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2027?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x2ccd3b…
07-05 20:59:55	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 team to advance	Brazil	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0xc87863…
07-05 20:59:17	Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	SELL	61	48¢	$29	0x0b8012…
07-05 19:05:31	Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	61	55¢	$34	0x549d49…
05-30 13:06:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x5d2f73…
05-30 13:04:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xfa53b7…
05-30 13:04:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xaa50ba…
05-30 12:53:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0x1fd5db…
05-30 12:53:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	23¢	$1	0x8d9d04…
05-30 12:53:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x42f65a…
05-30 12:53:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x04e42c…
05-30 12:51:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xfe1b66…
05-30 12:51:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xd5b224…
05-30 12:51:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x8916a4…
05-30 12:51:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x1c75ce…
05-30 12:43:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xdab3eb…
05-30 12:43:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x4241e6…
05-30 12:43:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x35a4d4…
05-30 12:43:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xe5ff1a…
05-30 12:43:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x9dbe2b…
05-30 12:43:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x663a3b…
05-30 12:43:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x4ced4f…
05-30 12:43:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	43	8¢	$4	0x2ab6fd…
05-30 12:43:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xc80e3a…
05-30 12:43:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xc29746…
05-30 12:43:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xc0f444…
05-30 12:43:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xe5087d…
05-30 12:43:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x6eb69e…
05-30 12:42:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0x148495…
05-30 12:40:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x6b5d65…
05-30 12:40:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x28cc41…
05-30 12:40:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x7e4461…
05-30 12:40:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x572ffb…
05-30 12:40:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x1ee4ce…
05-28 10:11:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x66e5af…
05-28 10:10:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x5a50b7…
05-28 10:10:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x37ad90…
05-28 10:09:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xe061ba…
05-27 12:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x193ef8…
05-27 12:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x761be9…
05-27 12:42:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x99936e…
05-27 12:24:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	187	3¢	$6	0x4d3bf6…
05-27 12:21:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xeb881f…
05-27 12:21:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x62099c…
05-27 12:19:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x6bf54e…
05-27 12:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xe437df…
05-27 12:07:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x230587…
05-27 12:07:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xdd9d31…
05-27 11:37:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	SELL	13	25¢	$3	0x268903…
05-27 11:37:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	25¢	$1	0xdae5ca…
05-27 11:32:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xc41ac2…
05-27 11:31:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xfe18c0…
05-27 11:29:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x70cd80…
05-27 11:28:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	SELL	6	24¢	$1	0xa8abcb…
05-27 11:21:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x33958e…
05-27 11:17:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x62f938…
05-27 11:17:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x917ead…
05-27 11:16:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	SELL	8	49¢	$4	0xab039c…
05-27 11:16:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x2924b7…
05-27 11:15:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x336575…
05-27 11:12:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xdfbc94…
05-27 11:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	12	4¢	$0	0xb61e31…
05-27 11:08:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x8de1b9…
05-27 11:05:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	14	15¢	$2	0x81b242…
05-27 11:02:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x18247c…
05-27 11:01:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	22¢	$1	0xc8b90b…
05-27 10:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	4	96¢	$3	0xe17fee…
05-27 10:58:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0x712086…
05-27 06:53:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	SELL	14	18¢	$3	0x5588ab…
05-27 06:52:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xe7dcb1…
05-27 06:43:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x921e61…
05-27 06:38:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	SELL	6	24¢	$1	0xa6e631…
05-27 06:37:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xee45a3…
05-27 06:34:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0x2eaa69…
05-27 06:33:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xa761f0…
05-27 06:31:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x2db7a0…
05-27 06:31:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xe5ffb6…
05-27 06:27:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	SELL	8	18¢	$1	0xf19bc5…
05-27 06:26:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xb34ed7…
05-27 06:23:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x3d4b27…
05-27 06:23:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x220aa8…
05-09 18:35:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6,000	0¢	$6	0x060426…
05-09 18:20:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x29ee80…
05-09 18:20:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20,000	0¢	$20	0x25099a…
05-09 18:20:11	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6,667	0¢	$20	0xbc586b…
05-09 18:11:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x7b4ea8…
04-07 20:24:49	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x780a12…
03-31 13:19:15	EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	62	93¢	$57	0x542743…
03-30 17:48:25	EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x18ba85…
03-30 17:48:03	EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	21	16¢	$3	0x73cbbe…