Diligent-Reflection — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$203

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

42.2%

Resolved

828

Trades

17,871

lifetime

Volume

$50.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-18

last 05-27 15:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 40% $-203

Politics

0% — —

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 624 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	2	$102	10,005	0	+10,005	Down	$-97	05-12 20:15
btc updown 15m 1772226000	4	$51	96	40	+56	open	—	02-27 21:13
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$37	22	22	+0	open	—	02-28 21:41
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	14	$33	40	25	+15	open	—	05-14 19:12
btc updown 15m 1772412300	5	$28	140	0	+140	open	—	03-02 00:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	3	$28	18	18	+0	Down	+$7	05-07 04:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	3	$28	18	18	+0	Up	+$8	05-06 11:23
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	11	$27	30	25	+5	open	—	05-21 18:57
eth updown 15m 1775687400	4	$26	51	0	+51	open	—	04-08 22:32
eth updown 15m 1775695500	4	$26	47	0	+47	open	—	04-09 00:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	3	$26	18	18	+0	Up	+$10	05-06 03:28
btc updown 15m 1772142300	7	$26	117	0	+117	open	—	02-26 21:48
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	11	$24	25	25	+0	open	—	05-14 10:36
btc updown 5m 1772798400	5	$24	70	0	+70	open	—	03-06 12:04
eth updown 15m 1775708100	3	$23	46	0	+46	open	—	04-09 04:20
btc updown 15m 1772153100	8	$23	105	0	+105	open	—	02-27 00:50
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	10	$23	25	25	+0	open	—	05-14 18:48
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	10	$22	22	25	-3	open	—	05-21 19:22
btc updown 15m 1772175600	18	$22	102	0	+102	open	—	02-27 07:04
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	7	$22	20	20	+0	open	—	05-13 19:04
eth updown 15m 1774979100	1	$22	38	0	+38	open	—	03-31 17:47
eth updown 15m 1776446100	11	$21	45	0	+45	open	—	04-17 17:24
btc updown 15m 1772181000	3	$21	96	0	+96	open	—	02-27 08:33
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	3	$21	13	13	+0	Up	+$5	05-07 06:29
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	7	$21	20	15	+5	open	—	05-13 18:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	5	$21	18	18	+0	Up	+$9	05-06 18:13
eth updown 15m 1775498400	2	$20	34	0	+34	open	—	04-06 18:01
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	9	$20	25	20	+5	open	—	05-13 18:28
btc updown 15m 1772210700	6	$20	93	0	+93	open	—	02-27 16:48
btc updown 15m 1773951300	6	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	03-19 20:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-27 15:52:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x0ddca4…
05-27 15:51:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x6a9db3…
05-27 15:30:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x043407…
05-27 15:30:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	58¢	$4	0xd45f21…
05-27 15:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	57¢	$4	0xa2ec4f…
05-27 14:50:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x4f47d4…
05-27 14:50:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x16d1c8…
05-27 14:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	41¢	$3	0x380b12…
05-27 14:49:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0x1e19c6…
05-27 14:37:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xa714d5…
05-27 14:37:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xe21b2a…
05-27 14:37:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x1c1005…
05-27 14:32:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0xabe206…
05-27 14:06:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0xb24475…
05-27 14:06:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	24¢	$2	0xd36dc3…
05-27 14:06:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0xacee7d…
05-27 13:46:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$4	0x7dafed…
05-27 13:46:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0x353dc9…
05-27 13:46:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x505677…
05-27 13:32:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xf1eccd…
05-27 13:32:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x889d5b…
05-27 13:19:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x1a3c17…
05-27 13:19:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	39¢	$3	0x517d9f…
05-27 13:19:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xcf6b23…
05-27 12:34:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x639014…
05-27 12:34:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x5905be…
05-27 12:34:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x7b953e…
05-27 12:34:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x68b1a1…
05-27 12:18:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0xf936f7…
05-27 12:18:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0xaca806…
05-27 12:17:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0x6180ea…
05-27 12:02:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xede0ac…
05-27 12:02:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0xcd9ceb…
05-27 12:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0xca38fb…
05-27 12:02:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0xc7e402…
05-27 11:46:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	54¢	$4	0xa9795e…
05-27 11:46:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0x3d9922…
05-27 11:37:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0xa81baf…
05-27 11:37:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x4c19a7…
05-27 11:36:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xfea22c…
05-27 11:36:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x88e417…
05-27 11:15:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xceb4e4…
05-27 11:15:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0xaee359…
05-27 10:47:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x821599…
05-27 10:47:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x3fef25…
05-27 10:47:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	39¢	$3	0xc62b4c…
05-27 10:47:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x9f1874…
05-27 10:18:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0xe981ff…
05-27 10:18:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	41¢	$3	0xdb22a7…
05-27 10:18:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xc8a558…
05-27 10:18:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x0807a5…
05-27 10:02:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	57¢	$4	0xde274c…
05-27 10:02:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0xa04fd1…
05-27 09:50:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xc38106…
05-27 09:20:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0xb0c897…
05-27 09:20:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$4	0x40d49f…
05-27 09:20:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0x4a9e7f…
05-27 09:20:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0x34c5b4…
05-27 09:16:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xd24709…
05-27 09:16:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x804d7e…
05-27 09:16:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x59bb87…
05-27 08:46:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	39¢	$3	0xdbe7f7…
05-27 08:46:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0x9874e4…
05-27 08:46:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x4ae0b2…
05-27 08:46:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x28fdf7…
05-27 08:37:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0xd269ef…
05-27 08:37:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x6a8d0f…
05-27 08:33:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x8c340b…
05-27 08:33:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x087b0b…
05-27 08:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0xba0849…
05-27 08:02:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0xad86d5…
05-27 08:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0x6a4dde…
05-27 08:01:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0xeedb6c…
05-27 08:01:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x3f1da6…
05-27 08:01:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	24¢	$2	0x605564…
05-27 08:01:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x45ba4b…
05-27 07:50:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0xc04cce…
05-27 07:50:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x63ba76…
05-27 07:49:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x415005…
05-27 07:49:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xa80562…
05-27 07:49:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xaa775a…
05-27 07:32:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xca786a…
05-27 07:32:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x1b7a04…
05-27 07:32:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	40¢	$3	0x33fd58…
05-27 07:30:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x97e1fc…
05-27 07:30:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x3c28b7…
05-27 07:03:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x6d5262…
05-27 07:03:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x8d8e7a…
05-27 07:02:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x10f44b…
05-27 07:02:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	58¢	$4	0xe3feff…
05-27 06:47:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0x5ccb0e…
05-27 06:47:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	0	24¢	$0	0x1e9d35…
05-27 06:47:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0x634c07…
05-27 06:46:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xfdc688…
05-27 06:46:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x347e46…
05-27 06:46:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	40¢	$3	0xdf6570…
05-27 06:46:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xc645ed…
05-27 06:36:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	39¢	$2	0x61372f…
05-27 06:36:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0xb55e90…
05-27 06:35:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0x475618…