Nervous-Microlending — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$416

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.4%

Resolved

546

Trades

1,244

lifetime

Volume

$5.93K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-02 15:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 85 days

Categories

Crypto

59% 53% -$108

Other

20% 43% -$72

Politics

17% 58% -$39

Sports

4% 50% -$196

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	4	$866	441	441	+0	No	+$14	02-11 09:18
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$325	252	81	+171	No	+$8	01-28 02:25
will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	2	$225	116	116	+0	No	+$7	01-29 16:13
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$206	350	0	+350	No	-$206	05-14 06:24
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$153	159	0	+159	Yes	+$6	01-20 05:14
si hit 110 high jan 2026 293 432 128	4	$80	90	0	+90	Yes	-$80	01-22 17:21
si hit 100 high jan 2026 422 587 453	4	$64	84	32	+52	Yes	-$14	01-23 17:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-02 10:15 UTC	13	$62	70	70	+0	Down	+$6	01-02 10:22
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$59	65	65	+0	Yes	+$11	06-04 14:30
will israel strike gaza on february 10 2026	3	$54	95	95	+0	Yes	-$43	02-13 03:22
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-02 09:45 UTC	14	$45	60	60	+0	Up	-$1	01-02 09:55
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17?	1	$43	50	0	+50	No	+$7	06-16 17:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-02 10:00 UTC	12	$40	40	40	+0	Up	+$5	01-02 10:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	2	$40	10	50	-40	Down	+$32	05-31 05:49
will bitcoin reach 110k in january 2026	1	$37	0	37	-37	No	$0	01-27 14:21
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20?	4	$36	40	20	+20	Yes	-$2	06-20 02:41
will baidu have the second best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$35	37	0	+37	No	+$2	01-20 05:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-02 11:00 UTC	9	$34	61	30	+31	Down	-$6	01-02 11:07
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18?	1	$33	40	0	+40	No	+$7	06-17 17:23
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-02 09:45 UTC	6	$33	50	20	+30	Up	-$6	01-02 09:49
will google have the second best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$30	35	0	+35	Yes	+$5	01-20 05:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-12 09:25 UTC	2	$29	58	58	+1	Up	-$1	02-12 09:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 13:45 UTC	4	$28	50	10	+40	Down	+$13	01-24 13:57
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20?	2	$28	20	15	+5	No	-$5	06-20 02:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	7	$27	26	26	+0	Down	+$9	05-30 14:49
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-20 10:15 UTC	4	$26	33	0	+33	Up	-$3	01-20 10:27
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 1?	4	$26	30	0	+30	No	+$4	09-01 03:28
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-02 15:15 UTC	4	$25	30	45	-15	Down	+$13	01-02 15:26
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 01:15 UTC	10	$22	60	0	+60	Up	-$22	01-05 01:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 15:15 UTC	3	$22	0	40	-40	Down	+$2	08-26 15:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-02 15:58:57	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x9415c0…
09-02 15:57:28	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xafcd76…
09-02 15:57:27	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0x1b76fb…
09-02 15:57:24	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0xb64da4…
09-02 15:57:24	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0x032dc2…
09-02 15:56:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0x76425d…
09-02 15:56:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0x098474…
09-02 15:56:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0x00d74f…
09-02 15:55:48	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0xedcbf4…
09-02 15:55:42	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0xec795b…
09-02 15:55:39	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0x7035bd…
09-02 15:55:36	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0x66339b…
09-02 15:55:36	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0x24350c…
09-02 15:52:55	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0x6597b6…
09-02 15:52:55	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x55b37b…
09-01 03:28:37	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 1?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x7e3616…
09-01 03:23:58	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 1?	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0x6cbe1b…
09-01 03:23:58	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 1?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x2bee31…
09-01 03:23:06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 1?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x960d83…
08-31 04:28:37	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x96ccb0…
08-30 05:18:28	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	9	40¢	$4	0xc5de51…
08-30 05:18:27	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xff1f24…
08-30 05:18:27	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0xcdb310…
08-30 05:18:24	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0x3b884c…
08-30 05:18:22	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0x0e9bfc…
08-26 15:25:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 15:25 UTC	Up	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0xc930b2…
08-26 15:19:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 15:20 UTC	Up	SELL	14	55¢	$8	0x679d8f…
08-26 15:15:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 15:15 UTC	Down	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0xc43b70…
08-26 15:15:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 15:15 UTC	Down	SELL	11	55¢	$6	0x2dc8eb…
08-26 15:15:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 15:15 UTC	Up	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0xc456e9…
08-26 15:11:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 15:10 UTC	Down	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0xcb5d8d…
08-26 15:09:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 15:10 UTC	Up	SELL	7	55¢	$4	0x75dabf…
08-26 15:09:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 15:10 UTC	Up	SELL	3	55¢	$1	0x3972cb…
08-26 15:04:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 15:05 UTC	Down	SELL	1	55¢	$1	0xc41176…
08-26 15:04:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 15:05 UTC	Down	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x6aedf8…
08-26 15:04:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 15:05 UTC	Down	SELL	7	55¢	$4	0x3c86d4…
08-26 15:04:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 15:05 UTC	Up	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0xd20b1a…
08-26 15:00:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 15:00 UTC	Up	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0xfeca77…
08-26 14:59:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 15:00 UTC	Down	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0x0fc9d9…
08-26 14:55:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 14:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x19e1b6…
08-12 03:27:10	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 12?	No	BUY	3	86¢	$2	0x52b18f…
08-12 03:19:58	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 12?	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x241ca2…
08-12 03:17:55	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xff4198…
08-11 04:44:42	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x5d42a6…
08-10 01:52:49	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x161a2a…
08-09 05:27:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 05:25 UTC	Down	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0x540610…
08-09 05:27:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 05:25 UTC	Down	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x1c0de8…
08-09 03:58:21	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x815956…
08-06 18:50:29	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xb6224c…
08-06 02:44:03	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3102a7…
08-06 02:10:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x1e3047…
08-06 01:26:39	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x985965…
08-06 01:26:17	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0xd68b51…
08-05 03:22:48	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 5?	Yes	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x9e1507…
08-03 02:22:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x3ba90e…
08-03 02:21:29	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x9f1eec…
07-02 04:08:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xb30d35…
06-30 14:52:41	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 1?	No	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0x075a5b…
06-30 14:49:53	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 1?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x0f61e2…
06-30 05:07:28	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x6d172f…
06-30 02:40:14	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30?	Yes	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0x8a245f…
06-30 02:40:13	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	15¢	$1	0xb6e56f…
06-30 02:40:13	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0xa7c32b…
06-28 03:25:40	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x911016…
06-28 03:21:04	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28?	No	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0xf43f90…
06-28 03:20:46	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x92c685…
06-27 04:13:46	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x17ead7…
06-26 04:04:19	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xd1451d…
06-25 01:34:28	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	1	55¢	$1	0xe41d52…
06-25 01:30:07	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x125e75…
06-25 01:25:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x41c12d…
06-22 08:27:07	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xb8d8de…
06-22 00:46:25	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xd3c728…
06-21 23:59:22	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x6c717d…
06-21 10:27:32	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x8f0758…
06-21 09:45:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	7	34¢	$3	0x8f08c3…
06-21 09:38:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0xc761a6…
06-21 04:23:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xb3a445…
06-21 04:23:28	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x168eac…
06-21 03:33:25	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x6372de…
06-20 22:51:38	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x3a3406…
06-20 08:43:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x37586a…
06-20 05:01:46	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xa392e7…
06-20 02:53:17	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x68b458…
06-20 02:41:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x4a392b…
06-20 02:19:07	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xda2573…
06-20 02:09:08	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20?	No	SELL	15	58¢	$9	0xfbe403…
06-20 02:06:50	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x0c5b7d…
06-20 02:06:28	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20?	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0xa9d7d6…
06-20 01:54:11	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x6f1453…
06-19 19:20:14	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xb7bcb0…
06-19 18:20:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x0b9703…
06-19 15:45:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-19 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0xb9294d…
06-19 15:45:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-19 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0x97659a…
06-19 15:44:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 15:45 UTC	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xd52aed…
06-19 15:29:11	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x054137…
06-19 05:24:05	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x65a238…
06-18 16:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x250a59…
06-18 16:09:32	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19?	Yes	BUY	14	18¢	$3	0x2d420a…
06-18 15:09:14	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x555a1a…