Youthful-Compost — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$157

Unrealized P&L

+$19

Hit rate

1.8%

Resolved

Trades

586

lifetime

Volume

$37.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$64

Open exposure

$21

1 position

First seen

2026-01-09

last 06-21 13:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

85% 33% $-157

Other

9% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes		-130	$-40	16¢	$-21	+$19	06-14 22:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	14	$5.8K	24,174	16,108	+8,065	open	—	03-16 21:23
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$5.8K	6,667	6,667	+0	Yes	$-200	01-22 10:50
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	13	$2.5K	1,666	1,666	+0	open	—	04-03 22:45
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	3	$2.1K	15,077	15,077	+0	open	—	02-08 00:00
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	18	$2.0K	1,175	1,149	+26	open	—	04-19 19:43
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$1.6K	950	950	+0	open	—	02-28 19:41
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	19	$1.3K	1,102	1,102	+0	open	—	04-22 18:07
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	2	$1.0K	509	509	+0	open	—	01-16 21:55
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	2	$1.0K	504	504	+0	open	—	01-16 06:02
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$1.0K	7,056	7,056	+0	open	—	01-17 00:00
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	2	$1.0K	520	520	+0	open	—	01-17 08:11
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	5	$930	810	810	+0	open	—	01-15 06:08
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	14	$914	20,321	24,031	-3,710	open	—	01-24 18:16
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	20	$798	553	593	-40	open	—	05-22 01:03
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	19	$696	418	418	+0	open	—	04-21 20:01
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	13	$602	430	287	+143	open	—	05-22 22:29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	23	$562	5,680	5,680	+0	open	—	03-31 08:28
will the dhs shutdown last 60 days or more 988 872 151 791 415 422	5	$527	278	278	+0	open	—	04-13 20:02
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	19	$497	384	384	+0	open	—	04-21 19:39
will trump attend ufc 327	19	$395	208	208	+0	open	—	04-11 00:51
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	21	$382	200	200	+0	open	—	05-16 07:28
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$354	186	186	+0	open	—	05-11 05:30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	2	$295	154	154	+0	open	—	04-24 04:03
will artemis ii launch by april 30 584 422 878 853 499	1	$281	295	0	+295	open	—	04-01 21:17
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	11	$274	169	169	+0	open	—	04-21 18:57
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	3	$229	180	180	+0	open	—	04-21 22:08
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	4	$220	118	118	+0	open	—	05-20 09:40
will the us invade iran by march 31	3	$209	625	625	+0	open	—	03-13 18:41
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	2	$200	103	103	+0	open	—	01-20 16:48
will the dhs shutdown last 90 days or more 828 938	2	$195	130	130	+0	open	—	04-08 22:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-21 13:13:44	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	SELL	27	38¢	$10	0x6a934a…
06-21 06:04:49	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x93eca4…
06-20 13:14:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	77	49¢	$38	0x93ba6d…
06-19 13:16:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	56	7¢	$4	0xf8d402…
06-17 19:31:02	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	5¢	$1	0xbe305a…
06-17 19:30:40	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	187	5¢	$10	0x2b8a73…
06-17 19:25:38	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	65	100¢	$65	0xd7a9e3…
06-15 18:50:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	55	63¢	$35	0x07c0e2…
06-14 23:10:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x78089e…
06-14 22:52:21	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x1a3377…
06-14 22:52:01	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	130	31¢	$40	0x134d9c…
06-13 06:04:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	65	64¢	$42	0xb8fdb2…
06-12 21:49:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x27ff93…
06-12 21:49:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xc828e9…
06-08 01:09:45	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	9	60¢	$6	0x91b795…
06-07 19:45:34	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x05df29…
05-22 22:29:40	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	SELL	110	89¢	$98	0x9c94f2…
05-22 22:24:49	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	110	90¢	$99	0xa8ffbb…
05-22 22:13:13	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	SELL	120	89¢	$107	0xb95ae3…
05-22 21:11:12	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0x9d4459…
05-22 21:06:06	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	13	83¢	$11	0x94c97a…
05-22 21:03:48	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	57	83¢	$47	0xdfa71e…
05-22 18:51:21	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	SELL	19	83¢	$16	0xd04515…
05-22 18:47:28	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	SELL	38	83¢	$31	0x587581…
05-22 18:15:06	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x84947f…
05-22 18:10:17	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	47	80¢	$37	0x854f0a…
05-22 01:03:09	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	SELL	277	99¢	$274	0xf8bb12…
05-22 01:03:07	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	SELL	41	99¢	$40	0xb30e06…
05-22 00:31:53	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	19	69¢	$13	0xeb3ef9…
05-22 00:31:50	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	46	69¢	$32	0xe5b777…
05-22 00:31:27	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	45	69¢	$31	0x325bc1…
05-21 23:41:27	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	76	50¢	$38	0x4fc517…
05-21 23:40:59	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	24	50¢	$12	0x2298d1…
05-21 23:37:22	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	No	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0xfa6898…
05-21 23:37:21	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	No	SELL	36	55¢	$20	0x208dc9…
05-21 23:33:49	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	No	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xcb1694…
05-21 21:55:09	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0xe09ca8…
05-21 21:51:25	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0xb154fe…
05-21 21:47:25	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	SELL	61	95¢	$58	0x5cc54a…
05-21 20:36:20	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	68	47¢	$32	0x57d8d1…
05-21 20:34:35	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	50	65¢	$32	0x292257…
05-21 06:01:03	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	BUY	61	93¢	$57	0x92431f…
05-21 05:51:53	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	SELL	50	25¢	$12	0x90b0c6…
05-21 05:46:40	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	75	65¢	$49	0xc2364f…
05-20 20:42:53	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x9097d1…
05-20 19:22:14	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	30	55¢	$16	0x78dd94…
05-20 19:21:43	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xf37573…
05-20 17:25:53	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	SELL	600	1¢	$4	0x6eb4cb…
05-20 09:40:34	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xbb9837…
05-20 05:22:39	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	SELL	108	78¢	$84	0xf7fea2…
05-19 19:06:14	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	600	2¢	$15	0x1aa614…
05-19 17:56:56	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	90	98¢	$88	0xf0865e…
05-17 14:07:06	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	89	77¢	$68	0x76fd66…
05-17 14:03:18	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	19	76¢	$14	0x7141ba…
05-17 13:28:29	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	6	90¢	$6	0x1fc9c5…
05-17 13:27:03	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	83	90¢	$75	0x56506c…
05-17 13:16:52	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x0f6ef6…
05-17 09:53:23	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0xce9f00…
05-17 09:29:10	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	28	27¢	$8	0x3f1f4b…
05-17 07:09:24	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	28	57¢	$16	0xddddad…
05-17 07:08:58	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	SELL	40	43¢	$17	0x4c00cf…
05-17 06:39:36	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	92	87¢	$80	0x30e242…
05-16 19:56:28	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	40	51¢	$20	0x4036c3…
05-16 19:56:11	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	110	88¢	$97	0xa4b733…
05-16 07:28:59	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0xf57429…
05-14 22:09:40	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xa23cf0…
05-14 22:09:24	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xd933e2…
05-14 22:09:09	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x18a165…
05-14 22:08:56	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x93059c…
05-14 22:08:39	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xa8452b…
05-14 22:08:25	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xb6d85c…
05-14 22:08:09	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x4f246e…
05-14 22:07:55	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x0b5b9f…
05-14 22:07:41	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x9d5edb…
05-14 22:07:25	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x7d1ba7…
05-14 22:07:10	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x14b491…
05-14 22:06:56	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x09bb87…
05-14 22:06:40	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xb01d71…
05-14 22:06:24	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x42ab4c…
05-14 22:06:10	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xcfeaf8…
05-14 22:05:54	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xbbc310…
05-14 21:33:09	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	75	92¢	$69	0x709a8d…
05-14 21:11:11	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xf4b338…
05-14 20:22:31	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0xf0989e…
05-14 19:39:49	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0x9cb006…
05-11 05:30:54	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	SELL	186	99¢	$184	0x67fb26…
05-08 19:51:58	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	186	91¢	$170	0x7d6a02…
04-24 18:21:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	88¢	$150	0x2c56e9…
04-24 04:03:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	SELL	154	97¢	$150	0x1c4225…
04-23 16:54:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	154	94¢	$145	0x878508…
04-22 18:07:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	No	SELL	150	98¢	$147	0x216fd3…
04-21 22:08:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	No	BUY	110	89¢	$98	0xa3d52d…
04-21 22:08:04	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	180	54¢	$97	0xa7ac22…
04-21 21:58:20	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x2280c1…
04-21 20:59:40	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xb6a886…
04-21 20:47:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	No	BUY	40	85¢	$34	0xd4cdfa…
04-21 20:45:44	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xb6efaa…
04-21 20:38:48	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	SELL	100	47¢	$47	0xce8ab5…
04-21 20:31:36	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	160	74¢	$118	0x9af20c…
04-21 20:28:30	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	Yes	SELL	57	26¢	$15	0xf44af3…