Upright-Carry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

-$40

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,293

lifetime

Volume

$138.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$107

Open exposure

$273

1 position

First seen

2026-03-24

last 06-08 10:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

68% — —

Other

26% 100% +$11

Tech

5% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 79 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No		+3,037	$314	9¢	$273	$-40	06-08 10:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran strike oman again in march	81	$13.9K	16,513	9,445	+7,068	open	—	04-06 05:08
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	19	$12.0K	6,174	6,174	+0	open	—	04-16 19:28
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	63	$11.5K	8,919	8,931	-12	open	—	04-14 17:22
will turnout in the 2025 honduran general election be between 60 and 65	36	$5.4K	4,710	4,710	+0	open	—	04-10 17:12
will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	49	$4.2K	3,344	2,660	+684	open	—	04-03 08:15
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	28	$4.0K	2,391	2,391	+0	open	—	04-21 13:04
will iran strike uae again in march	19	$3.5K	2,254	2,254	+0	open	—	04-06 05:07
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?	8	$3.0K	1,553	1,553	+0	open	—	04-22 09:48
will iran strike bahrain again in march	22	$3.0K	1,991	1,990	+0	open	—	04-01 22:49
will iran strike iraq again in march	26	$2.7K	1,483	1,483	+0	open	—	03-29 23:00
Will UK strike Iran by April 30?	5	$2.2K	1,162	1,162	+0	open	—	04-01 06:50
will trump say third term in march	13	$2.0K	1,267	1,267	+0	open	—	04-01 11:17
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	9	$1.9K	997	997	+0	open	—	03-28 08:09
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	8	$1.9K	1,089	1,089	+0	open	—	03-31 22:48
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	14	$1.9K	1,068	1,068	+0	open	—	04-22 09:47
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	13	$1.8K	1,138	1,138	+0	open	—	04-12 22:39
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	3	$1.7K	836	836	+0	open	—	03-27 23:53
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	15	$1.6K	945	945	+0	open	—	04-21 14:40
will qatar strike iran by march 31	12	$1.6K	804	804	+0	open	—	03-31 09:40
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	4	$1.4K	767	767	+0	open	—	04-08 22:16
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	13	$1.4K	1,027	1,027	+0	open	—	04-29 08:06
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	7	$1.4K	783	783	+0	open	—	03-25 22:13
Joe Kent charged by April 30?	5	$1.3K	675	675	+0	open	—	04-21 14:39
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?	9	$1.3K	764	764	+0	open	—	04-15 13:58
will trump post potus this week on truth social	10	$1.3K	2,029	184	+1,845	open	—	04-20 14:49
will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	24	$1.3K	958	958	+0	open	—	04-02 21:04
will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	23	$1.3K	1,526	1,426	+100	open	—	04-03 08:45
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 12, 2026?	2	$1.3K	643	643	+0	open	—	04-11 10:34
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	12	$1.2K	723	723	+0	open	—	04-12 08:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	18	$1.2K	838	838	+0	open	—	04-20 21:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 10:39:04	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	188	8¢	$15	0xfacff9…
06-07 14:09:58	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	SELL	200	8¢	$17	0x56333a…
06-07 06:47:24	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	SELL	3,050	8¢	$258	0x9f1617…
06-06 12:35:25	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	60	11¢	$7	0xff7365…
06-06 12:34:40	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x7218db…
06-06 10:55:48	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	308	11¢	$35	0xaeb039…
06-06 10:52:31	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	SELL	485	11¢	$53	0x06b4a2…
06-06 10:22:28	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	202	11¢	$22	0x40b184…
06-06 10:20:22	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	101	10¢	$10	0x2167c9…
06-06 10:18:24	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	2,000	9¢	$188	0x6f8bf6…
06-06 10:17:58	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	640	9¢	$59	0x9032e2…
06-06 10:17:52	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	2,062	9¢	$188	0xc23f94…
06-06 10:17:45	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	59	9¢	$5	0x52c047…
06-06 10:17:40	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	85	9¢	$8	0x6800eb…
06-06 10:17:30	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	121	9¢	$11	0x67d72a…
06-06 10:17:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	428	9¢	$38	0xb4e781…
06-06 10:17:13	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0xbd646b…
06-06 09:53:27	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	BUY	485	12¢	$58	0x92e740…
06-02 07:30:41	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	0¢	$0	0x743126…
06-02 07:30:27	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	0¢	$1	0xb0f493…
06-02 07:30:09	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	126	0¢	$1	0xd2d880…
06-02 07:29:57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	136	0¢	$1	0xf85e22…
06-02 07:23:58	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	240	1¢	$1	0x64ae87…
06-02 07:23:44	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	209	0¢	$1	0x069d17…
06-02 07:23:29	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	176	0¢	$1	0x26d1bd…
06-02 07:23:15	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	202	0¢	$1	0xbb2a43…
06-02 07:22:59	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	240	1¢	$1	0xa81dce…
06-02 07:22:41	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	219	0¢	$1	0xbad5e2…
06-02 07:22:27	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	0¢	$1	0xfb75bb…
06-02 05:40:49	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xe2ca0c…
06-02 04:52:22	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	20¢	$12	0xfe51cd…
06-02 04:52:17	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	188	20¢	$37	0x5de98a…
06-02 04:30:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	251	20¢	$50	0x5f2004…
06-02 04:17:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	320	20¢	$64	0x6ec48b…
06-02 04:17:06	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0xc179ee…
06-02 04:14:23	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	278	20¢	$55	0xe16c9c…
06-02 00:48:39	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	20¢	$20	0x440d59…
06-02 00:48:27	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	20¢	$20	0x39294e…
06-02 00:48:20	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x91958f…
06-01 22:14:35	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	6¢	$1	0xdf841d…
06-01 19:41:58	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	6¢	$1	0x7637d1…
06-01 18:24:31	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x27046b…
06-01 18:23:44	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	21¢	$14	0xf0b86c…
06-01 18:23:37	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	21¢	$8	0xeb532e…
06-01 18:09:25	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	30¢	$5	0x9ddb0b…
06-01 18:09:16	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	17¢	$3	0x90e70d…
06-01 18:07:12	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$1	0x02756c…
06-01 17:54:52	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0x657b24…
06-01 17:54:48	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x5362eb…
06-01 16:50:45	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	69¢	$35	0x57887b…
06-01 16:45:34	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0xc16acd…
06-01 16:44:27	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0xd8319d…
06-01 12:06:30	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	571	60¢	$343	0x92e073…
06-01 12:06:30	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	60¢	$7	0x8f9c29…
06-01 09:43:38	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	582	11¢	$62	0x80e1f6…
05-28 20:22:38	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	396	83¢	$329	0x40565a…
05-28 17:52:36	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	396	86¢	$340	0x7a1ef7…
05-28 17:27:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	7	44¢	$3	0x712055…
05-28 17:26:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xe9346a…
05-28 17:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	6	91¢	$5	0x04be1b…
05-28 17:25:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x9a1fd5…
05-28 17:18:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	SELL	9	97¢	$8	0x0319fa…
05-28 17:15:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x0fdafd…
05-28 17:10:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xa35632…
05-01 00:13:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	SELL	15	92¢	$14	0x19cfd8…
05-01 00:10:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xa71e9c…
05-01 00:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xdd0db4…
05-01 00:09:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xc97e5f…
05-01 00:08:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0x1c1182…
05-01 00:08:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xc3a5da…
05-01 00:06:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x2148d3…
05-01 00:05:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xabd626…
05-01 00:05:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x08360b…
05-01 00:02:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	SELL	29	94¢	$27	0x4b4fdc…
05-01 00:00:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x381bfe…
05-01 00:00:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x597603…
05-01 00:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x2d5dad…
05-01 00:00:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x756731…
04-30 23:59:46	Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during King Charles visit?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x1cf123…
04-30 07:21:30	The Devil Wears Prada 2 vs. Michael Opening Weekend Box Office	Michael	SELL	17	96¢	$17	0xb5edf4…
04-30 07:13:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	213	25¢	$54	0x78c745…
04-30 07:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	65	19¢	$12	0x0d8339…
04-30 07:13:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x4ba2bd…
04-30 07:12:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	49	52¢	$25	0xcd0b48…
04-30 07:12:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x97568b…
04-30 07:12:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xfe7e84…
04-30 07:11:58	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	183	98¢	$179	0x5f7470…
04-30 07:05:52	Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0x5a3079…
04-30 07:04:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x71ff31…
04-30 07:04:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x9ab914…
04-30 07:04:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x6c4f1d…
04-29 13:33:52	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	SELL	123	13¢	$16	0xed4129…
04-29 13:10:48	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	66	15¢	$10	0x31746d…
04-29 13:10:44	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	3	15¢	$0	0x40d449…
04-29 13:10:26	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x9e4f3b…
04-29 13:10:26	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x00bc9d…
04-29 13:10:24	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x56ccdf…
04-29 13:10:24	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x336ec5…
04-29 13:10:22	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0xe569c6…
04-29 13:10:22	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xdca02b…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	147	$526.9K	37,229	06-01 04:52
Fragrant-Dandelion 0x1408…b4f8	147	$73.7K	16,300	05-06 10:26
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	144	$21.6M	30,960	06-08 14:08
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	136	$650.5K	43,289	06-07 07:03
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	128	$88.7K	9,485	06-02 06:53
(anonymous) 0xa3c2…df3d	120	$273.1K	21,389	04-27 15:52
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	118	$1.02M	18,692	06-09 15:20
Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a	116	$580.7K	7,666	06-09 16:04