Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$106

Unrealized P&L

-$51

Hit rate

93.6%

Resolved

1,334

Trades

1,542

lifetime

Volume

$9.12K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$59

3 positions

First seen

2026-07-02

last 10-26 14:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 22 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 94% +$87

Other

3% 75% +$19

Politics

3% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+417	$50	11¢	$44	-$6	10-15 09:35
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+1,404	$10	1¢	$11	+$1	10-23 09:33
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+351	$50	1¢	$5	-$45	10-23 09:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	3	$209	962	962	+0	open	—	10-15 09:25
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	2	$105	125	125	+0	open	—	10-23 03:34
Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?	3	$95	575	575	+0	open	—	10-23 09:31
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	2	$78	222	222	+0	No	+$18	10-15 09:39
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	1	$68	113	0	+113	open	—	10-26 14:24
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	1	$50	417	0	+417	open	—	10-15 09:35
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	1	$50	351	0	+351	open	—	10-23 09:31
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-06 11:15 UTC	6	$35	36	0	+36	Up	+$1	07-06 11:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-06 10:30 UTC	8	$35	37	0	+37	Up	+$2	07-06 10:44
Ethereum Up or Down - July 6, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	7	$21	22	0	+22	Up	+$1	07-06 12:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-06 12:15 UTC	4	$20	22	0	+22	Up	+$2	07-06 12:28
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-06 20:30 UTC	2	$17	18	0	+18	Up	+$0	07-06 20:43
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-07 00:45 UTC	2	$17	17	0	+17	Up	+$1	07-07 00:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-07 05:45 UTC	2	$16	17	0	+17	Down	-$16	07-07 05:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-07 05:15 UTC	2	$16	17	0	+17	Up	+$0	07-07 05:26
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-06 14:15 UTC	2	$15	15	0	+15	Up	+$0	07-06 14:26
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-06 16:30 UTC	2	$15	16	0	+16	Up	+$1	07-06 16:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-07 06:30 UTC	2	$15	15	0	+15	Up	+$0	07-07 06:41
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-06 17:15 UTC	2	$15	15	0	+15	Up	+$0	07-06 17:26
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-07 06:45 UTC	2	$15	15	0	+15	Up	+$0	07-07 06:56
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-05 18:45 UTC	2	$15	18	0	+18	Up	+$3	07-05 18:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 10:45 UTC	2	$14	15	0	+15	Down	-$14	07-14 10:58
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 10:15 UTC	2	$14	15	0	+15	Down	+$2	07-14 10:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 10:15 UTC	2	$13	15	0	+15	Down	+$2	07-14 10:27
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 09:45 UTC	2	$13	14	0	+14	Up	+$1	07-14 09:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	2	$13	15	0	+15	Down	-$13	07-20 02:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 09:00 UTC	2	$13	14	0	+14	Down	+$1	07-14 09:13
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 08:45 UTC	2	$13	14	0	+14	Down	+$1	07-14 08:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 12:00 UTC	2	$12	14	0	+14	Up	-$12	07-14 12:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-06 20:15 UTC	1	$12	13	0	+13	Up	+$0	07-06 20:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 14:24:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	113	60¢	$68	0x245950…
10-23 09:33:27	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,404	1¢	$10	0xf414b6…
10-23 09:31:48	Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	443	7¢	$30	0x57ff8e…
10-23 09:31:11	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	351	14¢	$50	0xdc6af2…
10-23 03:34:29	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	125	60¢	$75	0x75ebe3…
10-22 20:04:48	Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	132	12¢	$15	0xa01d10…
10-22 13:33:29	Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	575	9¢	$50	0x6bbace…
10-21 07:48:17	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	125	24¢	$30	0x15d7c2…
10-15 09:39:38	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	222	22¢	$48	0x1a13d2…
10-15 09:35:35	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	417	12¢	$50	0x2ab1a1…
10-15 09:25:59	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	231	12¢	$28	0x37be92…
10-14 13:03:41	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 24 2026	No	BUY	222	14¢	$30	0xd414d8…
10-11 22:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xd7edb4…
10-11 14:36:03	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	731	14¢	$101	0xf8fa45…
09-28 18:36:33	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	962	8¢	$80	0x79f969…
07-22 20:44:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-22 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x5e02eb…
07-22 17:56:07	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-22 17:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x32b8e7…
07-22 16:58:39	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-22 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x744d5b…
07-22 15:41:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-22 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x2a790e…
07-22 14:57:54	Ethereum Up or Down - July 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x910fe6…
07-22 14:41:16	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-22 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc6b8c6…
07-22 13:58:19	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-22 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xed1754…
07-21 09:11:33	Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd31cb0…
07-21 08:28:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x4a99f8…
07-21 08:11:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x055a8f…
07-21 07:28:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x16fbb3…
07-21 07:13:13	Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xd0101c…
07-21 06:26:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x8c6459…
07-21 06:11:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc9f324…
07-21 05:26:48	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x653512…
07-21 05:14:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 05:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x19288e…
07-21 03:29:18	Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x223b73…
07-21 02:26:24	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x3f2b0e…
07-21 02:11:34	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x9b5d7e…
07-21 01:14:15	Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xabdb79…
07-21 00:11:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x67f97b…
07-20 16:41:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 16:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x9d7a22…
07-20 14:57:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xf3a50e…
07-20 14:43:51	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x7a1281…
07-20 13:41:07	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 13:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x1ffca3…
07-20 12:58:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 12:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xcfe9cc…
07-20 12:43:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x6d15c9…
07-20 11:56:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 11:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x90b0d3…
07-20 10:58:24	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	7	91¢	$7	0x08acc2…
07-20 10:58:00	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	7	92¢	$7	0x97f2e5…
07-20 10:41:31	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0xb8ab99…
07-20 10:41:09	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x0fa62e…
07-20 09:58:49	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 09:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x06f307…
07-20 09:41:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 09:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x85a168…
07-20 08:56:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 08:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x24aecd…
07-20 08:12:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0xf6f1af…
07-20 08:11:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	88¢	$8	0x9d713d…
07-20 07:57:22	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x5bac61…
07-20 07:56:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0x201ef3…
07-20 07:11:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 07:00 UTC	Up	BUY	9	88¢	$7	0x313c11…
07-20 06:56:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x006144…
07-20 06:56:07	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x5c769e…
07-20 06:26:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0xc528ba…
07-20 06:13:03	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 06:00 UTC	Up	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0xff8e0c…
07-20 06:12:40	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 06:00 UTC	Up	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x7f7615…
07-20 05:56:09	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0xe6a3ee…
07-20 05:56:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x2fbc1b…
07-20 05:43:13	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	84¢	$8	0xaacb41…
07-20 05:41:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0xa0c2c4…
07-20 05:28:31	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 05:15 UTC	Down	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0xee79e1…
07-20 04:42:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	87¢	$7	0xe7622b…
07-20 04:42:01	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0xa84b4f…
07-20 04:27:21	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 04:15 UTC	Up	BUY	9	86¢	$7	0x45a611…
07-20 04:26:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 04:15 UTC	Up	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0xcf81db…
07-20 03:56:16	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0x4015d4…
07-20 03:56:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	95¢	$7	0x09bcd1…
07-20 03:41:07	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 03:30 UTC	Up	BUY	8	95¢	$7	0x883972…
07-20 03:13:13	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 03:00 UTC	Up	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xe0af4e…
07-20 03:11:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 03:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x69e8a7…
07-20 02:56:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x34ed48…
07-20 02:56:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x54e61c…
07-20 02:56:37	Ethereum Up or Down - July 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	92¢	$8	0xff65e0…
07-20 01:42:36	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 01:30 UTC	Down	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0x7ed66c…
07-20 01:41:15	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 01:30 UTC	Down	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x0859e4…
07-20 01:26:36	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 01:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x0863cd…
07-20 01:26:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 01:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x0e9f84…
07-20 00:43:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0xfad70e…
07-20 00:41:07	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x8ef794…
07-20 00:26:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 00:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	97¢	$8	0xfab1b9…
07-19 23:56:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 23:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xc7a88b…
07-19 23:43:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 23:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xe657c8…
07-19 21:56:40	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x0ef4e9…
07-19 21:14:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 21:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x9ee5af…
07-19 20:43:58	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xfa0859…
07-19 19:56:33	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x82104c…
07-19 19:12:37	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 19:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0x029b74…
07-19 19:11:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0x409f43…
07-19 18:56:43	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 18:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x9b67e2…
07-19 18:27:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0xd5a953…
07-19 18:27:24	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	10	87¢	$8	0x31ddf0…
07-19 17:56:42	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 17:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	91¢	$8	0x39ad28…
07-19 17:43:48	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0x1f20f0…
07-19 17:42:31	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0x7744da…
07-19 17:27:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 17:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0xfab745…
07-19 17:26:37	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 17:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x5d6577…