Probable-Ride — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$167

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

44.0%

Resolved

102

Trades

3,177

lifetime

Volume

$18.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 06-06 09:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 42% $-167

Politics

4% — —

Other

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 860 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	83	$1.2K	1,226	1,226	+0	open	—	05-19 14:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	67	$667	1,245	0	+1,245	Down	+$27	05-12 12:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	65	$589	1,126	0	+1,126	Down	$-9	05-13 09:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	71	$551	1,229	0	+1,229	Up	$-55	05-13 09:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	73	$481	1,080	0	+1,080	Up	+$119	05-12 13:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	57	$477	968	0	+968	Down	$-99	05-13 10:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	54	$381	794	0	+794	Down	+$71	05-12 14:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	36	$362	810	0	+810	Up	+$6	05-13 09:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	43	$355	739	0	+739	Down	$-4	05-12 15:13
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$331	233	233	+0	open	—	01-31 09:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	38	$330	678	0	+678	Up	$-10	05-12 14:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	40	$322	639	0	+639	Down	$-4	05-12 13:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	34	$316	652	0	+652	Up	+$34	05-12 12:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	42	$307	692	0	+692	Up	+$26	05-12 13:03
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	4	$304	1,668	1,510	+158	open	—	03-14 21:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	35	$302	586	0	+586	Down	+$49	05-12 15:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	43	$276	577	0	+577	Down	+$10	05-12 14:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	34	$269	594	0	+594	Down	+$112	05-13 09:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	19	$255	613	0	+613	Up	$-76	05-13 10:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	33	$255	499	0	+499	Down	+$1	05-12 14:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	65	$240	475	0	+475	Up	$-44	05-09 11:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	38	$216	454	0	+454	Down	$-22	05-12 12:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	25	$215	497	0	+497	Down	$-11	05-12 12:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	18	$212	466	0	+466	Down	$-2	05-12 13:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	35	$209	415	0	+415	Up	$-31	05-09 11:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	49	$206	416	0	+416	Down	$-4	05-08 19:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	21	$204	399	0	+399	Up	+$12	05-12 12:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	31	$204	405	0	+405	Up	$-11	05-08 19:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	22	$195	376	0	+376	Down	+$12	05-08 20:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	13	$194	420	0	+420	Up	+$22	05-08 18:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-06 09:11:16	eth updown 5m 1780737000	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x95add2…
06-06 09:10:55	eth updown 5m 1780737000	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x5d3194…
06-06 09:10:52	eth updown 5m 1780737000	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xa60e93…
06-06 09:10:40	eth updown 5m 1780737000	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xbee3f6…
06-06 09:10:16	eth updown 5m 1780737000	Up	BUY	1	45¢	$1	0x6fbf4a…
06-06 09:10:16	eth updown 5m 1780737000	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x17e4f4…
06-06 09:10:10	eth updown 5m 1780737000	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x13edd7…
06-06 09:09:04	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x605293…
06-06 09:09:03	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Down	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x180473…
06-06 09:09:01	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xb34662…
06-06 09:08:58	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xe94d22…
06-06 09:08:58	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x3dcbfd…
06-06 09:08:58	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x2ae3d6…
06-06 09:08:54	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xa271cf…
06-06 09:08:49	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xe00e71…
06-06 09:08:48	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xba2f59…
06-06 09:08:43	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x67da98…
06-06 09:08:42	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x5abad4…
06-06 09:08:31	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xd604e7…
06-06 09:08:31	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Down	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0x19d064…
06-06 09:08:15	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Up	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xb8ace3…
06-06 09:07:43	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Down	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x51f2c9…
06-06 09:07:12	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Up	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0x772b2f…
06-06 09:07:10	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Up	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x1d3a51…
06-06 09:06:49	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Up	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x8adcb0…
06-06 09:06:49	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x716198…
06-06 09:06:07	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Down	BUY	3	82¢	$2	0xe43c72…
06-06 09:06:04	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x1d7fb2…
06-06 09:05:22	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x4ebf57…
06-06 09:05:16	eth updown 5m 1780736700	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xcadf2f…
06-06 09:01:04	eth updown 5m 1780736400	Down	BUY	2	26¢	$0	0x620bf0…
06-06 09:01:04	eth updown 5m 1780736400	Down	BUY	3	26¢	$1	0x0ed04b…
06-06 09:01:04	eth updown 5m 1780736400	Down	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x052681…
06-06 09:00:54	eth updown 5m 1780736400	Up	BUY	4	65¢	$2	0x7d17ab…
06-06 09:00:54	eth updown 5m 1780736400	Up	BUY	1	65¢	$1	0x0d2d5c…
06-06 09:00:51	eth updown 5m 1780736400	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xd38742…
06-06 09:00:37	eth updown 5m 1780736400	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x2fe24b…
06-06 09:00:36	eth updown 5m 1780736400	Down	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0xcd0d13…
06-06 09:00:34	eth updown 5m 1780736400	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x03aeae…
06-06 09:00:33	eth updown 5m 1780736400	Up	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0xd1b6f8…
06-06 09:00:27	eth updown 5m 1780736400	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xed1336…
06-06 09:00:27	eth updown 5m 1780736400	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x347b69…
06-06 08:58:30	eth updown 5m 1780736100	Down	BUY	4	88¢	$4	0xc26595…
06-06 08:58:30	eth updown 5m 1780736100	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x6e9e38…
06-06 08:57:49	eth updown 5m 1780736100	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x6aef68…
06-06 08:57:33	eth updown 5m 1780736100	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x8cc7d6…
06-06 08:57:16	eth updown 5m 1780736100	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x1a97b8…
06-06 08:56:42	eth updown 5m 1780736100	Down	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0xec95b4…
06-06 08:56:42	eth updown 5m 1780736100	Down	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0x32c5f8…
06-06 08:56:36	eth updown 5m 1780736100	Down	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0xfdad79…
06-06 08:56:36	eth updown 5m 1780736100	Down	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x347e0b…
06-06 08:56:34	eth updown 5m 1780736100	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xe970bf…
06-06 08:56:18	eth updown 5m 1780736100	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x0650dc…
06-06 08:56:12	eth updown 5m 1780736100	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x31ed59…
06-06 08:55:34	eth updown 5m 1780736100	Down	BUY	7	53¢	$4	0x80cbcb…
06-06 08:55:34	eth updown 5m 1780736100	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x303b1c…
06-06 08:55:18	eth updown 5m 1780736100	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xdbde24…
06-06 08:55:07	eth updown 5m 1780736100	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xb7cb44…
06-06 08:53:43	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Down	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xd762b5…
06-06 08:53:27	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xee7316…
06-06 08:53:27	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x8e13c0…
06-06 08:53:22	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Down	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x78dc4c…
06-06 08:53:19	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Down	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0xb53240…
06-06 08:53:19	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Down	BUY	3	12¢	$0	0x93d964…
06-06 08:52:28	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Up	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0xa4a798…
06-06 08:52:18	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xf68618…
06-06 08:52:06	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Down	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xf81baf…
06-06 08:52:06	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Down	BUY	4	35¢	$2	0x4cb8de…
06-06 08:51:55	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Up	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x5983c8…
06-06 08:51:22	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Up	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0x82ea9f…
06-06 08:51:21	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x1c1988…
06-06 08:51:19	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xa62381…
06-06 08:51:09	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x174efc…
06-06 08:51:04	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Up	BUY	6	58¢	$3	0x3f4d45…
06-06 08:51:03	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xae8e5a…
06-06 08:50:49	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x6ae0f5…
06-06 08:50:40	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Down	BUY	1	44¢	$1	0x7059d9…
06-06 08:50:40	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x0e9842…
06-06 08:50:30	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x9fcf76…
06-06 08:50:30	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Up	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x5b795f…
06-06 08:50:24	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x2b0624…
06-06 08:50:12	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xe716cc…
06-06 08:50:10	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x84499e…
06-06 08:50:09	eth updown 5m 1780735800	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x9e36b6…
06-06 08:48:57	eth updown 5m 1780735500	Up	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x95f72c…
06-06 08:48:52	eth updown 5m 1780735500	Up	BUY	2	13¢	$0	0x2ed88a…
06-06 08:48:40	eth updown 5m 1780735500	Up	BUY	3	19¢	$1	0xe9f07e…
06-06 08:48:39	eth updown 5m 1780735500	Up	BUY	2	19¢	$0	0xdc4c8e…
06-06 08:48:19	eth updown 5m 1780735500	Down	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0x6b4311…
06-06 08:48:09	eth updown 5m 1780735500	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xbe608f…
06-06 08:47:36	eth updown 5m 1780735500	Down	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xa7e4fc…
06-06 08:47:36	eth updown 5m 1780735500	Down	BUY	9	84¢	$7	0x9db687…
06-06 08:46:30	eth updown 5m 1780735500	Up	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x9e23ac…
06-06 08:46:16	eth updown 5m 1780735500	Up	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xa6a749…
06-06 08:46:10	eth updown 5m 1780735500	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x07670d…
06-06 08:46:07	eth updown 5m 1780735500	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x541981…
06-06 08:46:04	eth updown 5m 1780735500	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x853203…
06-06 08:46:03	eth updown 5m 1780735500	Up	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xb1c341…
06-06 08:45:06	eth updown 5m 1780735500	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x75e127…
05-31 12:20:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0xdec2fd…