Ill-Informed-Hurt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.21K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

77.7%

Resolved

2,507

Trades

6,000

lifetime

Volume

$274.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$46

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 10-27 06:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 82 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 70% -$1,943

Other

1% 27% -$265

Politics

0% 40% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 23:10 UTC	5	$1.6K	1,078	553	+525	Up	+$18	03-22 23:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 15:30 UTC	5	$1.2K	856	500	+356	Down	+$43	03-29 15:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 13:35 UTC	3	$1.1K	972	476	+496	Down	-$487	04-07 13:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 23:00 UTC	4	$1.1K	581	580	+1	Up	+$56	03-22 23:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 15:45 UTC	5	$1.0K	865	728	+137	Down	+$80	03-29 15:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 09:30 UTC	5	$1.0K	746	515	+231	Up	+$45	04-07 09:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 20:30 UTC	3	$1.0K	515	515	+0	Down	+$14	03-20 20:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 20:25 UTC	17	$984	506	506	+0	Down	+$18	03-20 20:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 17:25 UTC	8	$943	528	523	+5	Down	+$87	03-30 17:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 02:50 UTC	4	$942	520	519	+1	Up	+$21	03-29 02:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-27 13:45 UTC	5	$935	476	476	+0	Down	+$14	03-27 13:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-25 19:00 UTC	5	$917	1,096	517	+580	Up	+$1	03-25 19:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 23:30 UTC	4	$915	489	488	+0	Down	-$18	03-22 23:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 20:15 UTC	4	$884	520	517	+3	Up	+$24	03-25 20:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 15:55 UTC	2	$879	651	643	+8	Down	+$30	03-29 15:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 13:15 UTC	3	$875	508	504	+4	Up	+$117	03-29 13:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 22:20 UTC	2	$869	445	445	+0	Up	+$12	03-22 22:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 22:35 UTC	2	$839	440	439	+1	Up	+$31	03-22 22:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 15:15 UTC	6	$802	488	485	+3	Down	+$5	03-29 15:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 14:45 UTC	2	$793	564	549	+15	Down	+$108	04-05 14:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 17:30 UTC	4	$783	591	585	+6	Up	+$23	03-30 17:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 19:00 UTC	5	$765	649	472	+177	Up	+$33	04-01 19:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 02:55 UTC	3	$763	586	224	+362	Down	+$17	03-25 02:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 15:05 UTC	3	$762	554	280	+274	Down	+$53	03-29 15:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 22:40 UTC	9	$760	397	396	+0	Up	+$25	03-25 22:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 22:15 UTC	4	$759	437	433	+3	Up	+$102	03-22 22:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 14:45 UTC	3	$758	532	451	+82	Up	+$40	03-27 14:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 13:30 UTC	2	$749	378	378	+0	Down	+$6	03-27 13:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-01 19:45 UTC	12	$745	762	741	+21	Up	-$4	04-01 19:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 21:20 UTC	7	$739	404	403	+1	Down	+$32	03-25 21:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 06:33:54	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xc54db2…
10-27 06:31:56	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	123	3¢	$4	0x60d7f8…
10-27 06:29:27	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	61	1¢	$0	0x15be4b…
10-26 17:22:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0xe16dca…
10-26 16:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	87¢	$3	0x4f1802…
10-26 16:53:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x6adf41…
10-26 16:25:39	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	84	4¢	$3	0xcf56bf…
10-26 16:25:05	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	43	42¢	$18	0xf29604…
10-26 14:14:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	84	12¢	$10	0x28a19c…
10-26 14:11:45	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x2d6425…
10-25 23:49:42	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0xaec66a…
10-25 23:49:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0x0a6b1b…
10-25 23:41:57	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x3b4203…
10-25 23:38:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	73	96¢	$70	0x4358f0…
10-24 20:54:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	45	99¢	$45	0xad66e5…
10-24 20:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	45	88¢	$40	0xbf9dc5…
10-24 20:47:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on October 25?	Yes	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x6ca4e8…
10-24 20:46:53	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	31	33¢	$10	0xaa8cca…
10-24 20:37:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	61	77¢	$47	0xd27486…
10-23 12:17:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xf787bb…
10-23 12:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0x7b8324…
10-22 21:21:21	Will the lowest temperature in Austin be 66°F or higher on October 23?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x36cefd…
10-22 10:11:50	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0xf6bfb1…
10-22 05:00:36	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on October 23?	Yes	BUY	16	60¢	$10	0x62e197…
10-22 05:00:32	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 23?	Yes	SELL	16	29¢	$5	0xa67a8a…
10-22 05:00:32	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 23?	Yes	SELL	8	29¢	$2	0x88778a…
10-22 04:29:05	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 22?	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x8d0e0a…
10-22 01:34:57	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x489eb6…
10-22 01:34:56	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x46a672…
10-22 01:07:09	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x16b81a…
10-22 01:07:08	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0xc96a63…
10-22 00:34:12	Will the lowest temperature in Austin be 66°F or higher on October 23?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x37df64…
10-22 00:34:12	Will the lowest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or higher on October 23?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x2bea02…
10-22 00:34:05	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	22	95¢	$21	0x7c75a6…
10-21 20:34:00	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 22?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xa56744…
10-21 20:33:59	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 22?	Yes	SELL	24	30¢	$7	0x82740a…
10-21 19:08:45	Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or higher on October 22?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xdc13ed…
10-21 19:08:44	Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C or below on October 22?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x4ef964…
10-21 19:08:32	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 21?	Yes	SELL	19	88¢	$16	0x6afdcf…
10-21 19:03:56	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 21?	Yes	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0x91339c…
10-21 19:02:59	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 21?	Yes	SELL	3	91¢	$3	0xbdc7f3…
10-21 18:50:41	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 22?	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x8719b8…
10-21 18:50:39	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x69eae4…
10-21 17:23:35	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 21?	Yes	SELL	16	31¢	$5	0xb24e56…
10-21 13:04:30	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xd160f7…
10-21 13:04:27	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	16	44¢	$7	0xeac1eb…
10-21 11:22:38	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0x890e69…
10-21 10:06:05	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$9	0x9d256e…
10-21 10:06:03	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	18	27¢	$5	0x0aa97b…
10-21 09:31:23	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on October 21?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xc52562…
10-21 06:41:12	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	18	53¢	$9	0x73a3ab…
10-21 06:41:11	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0x292529…
10-21 06:41:09	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	11	34¢	$4	0x9d6baa…
10-21 04:54:17	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0xdd2a5d…
10-21 04:53:54	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	16	57¢	$9	0x1161f3…
10-21 04:53:53	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	19	25¢	$5	0x6db48e…
10-21 04:30:45	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0xcb1a40…
10-21 04:30:45	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	11	25¢	$3	0xbfd889…
10-21 01:34:45	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x3893f4…
10-21 01:34:44	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	18	44¢	$8	0x6fbe60…
10-21 01:32:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x0a8141…
10-20 23:44:48	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	3	44¢	$1	0x1c0d1d…
10-20 22:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x0f8e62…
10-20 22:36:17	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$6	0x30d200…
10-20 22:03:47	Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 9°C or below on October 22?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x830696…
10-20 22:03:44	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	14	39¢	$6	0x6aadc8…
10-20 20:02:03	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	6	39¢	$3	0x23673c…
10-20 19:02:30	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 21?	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xcc156c…
10-20 19:01:54	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x6d434f…
10-20 19:00:45	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	16	36¢	$6	0x5757a1…
10-20 18:54:56	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0xfab4c3…
10-20 18:54:54	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x950b4a…
10-20 18:54:54	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	21	45¢	$10	0x6ee9f0…
10-20 18:54:53	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xec48c9…
10-20 18:54:53	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x603c56…
10-20 18:54:51	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	19	49¢	$9	0xea28db…
10-20 18:54:51	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	22	41¢	$9	0x8a02cc…
10-20 18:54:51	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	9	36¢	$3	0x7e7648…
10-20 18:44:17	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	19	50¢	$9	0xb98a18…
10-20 18:44:17	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	21	40¢	$8	0x4645b3…
10-20 18:44:15	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xace429…
10-20 18:44:14	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x9619b1…
10-20 18:44:14	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	26	37¢	$9	0x6755fc…
10-20 18:44:14	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on October 21?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x2e23de…
10-20 18:44:14	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 21?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x2b1b94…
10-20 18:44:14	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x1e2a69…
10-20 18:44:14	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x1053e0…
10-20 18:44:12	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	24	39¢	$9	0xaf034f…
10-20 18:44:12	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	22	42¢	$9	0x54e1ec…
10-20 18:44:02	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0x98b317…
10-20 18:19:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0xfb4820…
10-20 18:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xdee187…
10-20 18:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x489948…
10-20 18:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x3a384f…
10-20 18:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x000fe0…
10-20 14:55:54	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	21	18¢	$4	0x68e569…
10-20 12:39:03	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	21	34¢	$7	0xeee734…
10-20 12:38:21	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0xf761ef…
09-05 22:16:04	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x6d4b97…
09-05 22:03:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xd41984…