Prudent-Underground — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.15K

Unrealized P&L

-$50

Hit rate

62.9%

Resolved

770

Trades

5,002

lifetime

Volume

$56.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$87

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 10-27 12:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 86 days

Categories

Other

61% 23% -$174

Crypto

27% 37% -$1,427

Politics

12% 8% -$1,516

Sports

0% 0% -$28

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes		+1,138	$102	4¢	$46	-$55	10-16 20:34
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		+108	$35	38¢	$41	+$6	10-27 21:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 300 319	50	$5.3K	3,270	3,470	-200	Yes	+$171	02-27 16:15
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 320 339	71	$1.9K	4,050	4,050	+0	No	-$159	02-27 16:08
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 340 359	46	$1.9K	1,362	1,262	+100	No	+$155	02-24 16:40
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	165	$1.7K	38,892	2,770	+36,123	Yes	+$107	03-02 19:26
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	171	$1.5K	29,702	14,000	+15,701	Yes	+$147	03-04 17:39
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	101	$882	2,233	2,350	-117	Yes	-$72	02-28 06:18
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 65 89	9	$840	466	466	+0	Yes	+$64	02-23 16:06
elon musk of tweets march 2 march 4 40 64	16	$837	1,062	762	+300	No	+$103	03-04 15:49
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 40 64	11	$817	581	571	+10	No	+$253	04-15 18:06
another us government shutdown by february 14	142	$777	36,930	630	+36,300	No	+$67	02-15 05:25
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	123	$769	12,708	8,100	+4,608	No	-$121	03-04 15:24
elon musk of tweets february 26 february 28 65 89	56	$760	910	1,105	-195	No	-$104	02-28 14:43
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	15	$731	20,581	581	+20,000	Yes	-$192	02-02 21:53
elon musk of tweets february 23 february 25 65 89	15	$716	400	400	+0	Yes	+$56	02-25 16:16
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 360 379	17	$621	685	763	-78	Yes	-$60	02-24 16:21
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	25	$589	500	500	+0	Yes	+$87	04-29 06:22
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	80	$526	5,050	1,050	+4,000	Yes	-$329	04-06 19:49
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 115 139	5	$511	952	912	+41	Yes	+$269	04-12 20:58
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	1	$499	1,188	0	+1,188	Yes	-$499	04-07 20:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 20:10 UTC	4	$475	362	357	+5	Down	+$67	02-18 20:15
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	4	$471	306	301	+5	Yes	+$68	04-27 20:22
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	147	$468	6,465	968	+5,496	Yes	-$225	04-07 03:18
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	5	$429	370	370	+0	Yes	+$118	05-03 10:36
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	86	$414	2,250	875	+1,375	No	-$85	05-04 15:26
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 300 319	2	$411	357	349	+8	No	+$19	04-14 15:24
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 65 89	3	$405	326	326	+0	Yes	+$215	02-02 16:00
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 90 114	4	$389	745	713	+31	No	+$144	04-13 01:32
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 0 39	8	$364	358	354	+4	No	+$57	04-15 07:41
bl2 dyn svd 2026 02 27 total 3pt5	2	$350	250	250	+0	Over	+$150	02-27 19:28
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	2	$341	216	216	+0	Yes	+$71	05-01 13:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 21:20:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0xba81f0…
10-27 12:09:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0x64dbd9…
10-16 20:34:29	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	162	6¢	$10	0xdf4500…
10-03 21:41:19	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	5¢	$5	0x160a7b…
09-20 10:20:34	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	7¢	$5	0x17999e…
09-19 03:55:36	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	8¢	$5	0x600889…
09-17 13:03:55	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	128	7¢	$10	0x78502b…
09-17 02:20:10	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	7¢	$5	0xef73b9…
09-16 19:40:07	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	6¢	$5	0xcabd6f…
09-16 17:55:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	47	14¢	$7	0x51b327…
09-16 17:55:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x08d9d5…
09-16 17:55:03	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x725f34…
09-16 17:54:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x29c3aa…
09-15 19:17:37	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	153	7¢	$11	0x1a1d3b…
09-15 18:22:40	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	15¢	$9	0x9c9f30…
09-15 17:13:06	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	121	16¢	$19	0x39bc8e…
09-15 15:20:21	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	164	12¢	$20	0x440347…
06-03 20:37:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15,867	0¢	$48	0xe57f40…
05-30 11:54:09	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x8ce6ce…
05-30 08:17:30	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x713b42…
05-30 08:17:14	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x79328a…
05-30 08:16:55	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x94cb00…
05-30 08:16:53	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0x9246ce…
05-30 08:16:46	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x685f7c…
05-30 08:15:54	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x4156f6…
05-30 08:05:43	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x27ec21…
05-30 07:49:41	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x255a55…
05-30 07:48:10	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0x13155e…
05-30 07:47:49	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	18¢	$1	0x02a73a…
05-30 07:30:24	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xe266b7…
05-30 07:25:54	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x7bbf46…
05-30 07:16:27	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x92a4c0…
05-30 07:09:01	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x55b9ee…
05-29 23:50:14	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xbc9711…
05-29 22:01:30	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xf81636…
05-29 21:57:46	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x54faed…
05-29 21:09:12	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xae3370…
05-29 21:06:35	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x9dc192…
05-29 17:39:25	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x839c49…
05-29 11:44:45	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x17bb4f…
05-29 10:59:30	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x32df1e…
05-24 19:34:05	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	32¢	$40	0xb5778c…
05-24 19:33:34	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	5¢	$4	0xc9a82a…
05-24 19:33:20	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	161	2¢	$4	0x9f2eb4…
05-24 19:29:09	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	5¢	$4	0x0b1404…
05-23 07:13:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x795315…
05-23 07:13:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	58	17¢	$10	0x81fa85…
05-23 07:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	24	73¢	$18	0xf0ae2c…
05-23 07:12:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xb2e851…
05-23 07:11:34	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	215	3¢	$7	0xd39fa8…
05-23 07:11:29	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	222	3¢	$6	0x312699…
05-23 07:06:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	87	11¢	$10	0xa9efa8…
05-23 07:05:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	220	23¢	$50	0x62a9d5…
05-23 07:03:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x978de1…
05-23 07:02:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x974703…
05-23 06:59:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	35	28¢	$10	0x8bf188…
05-23 06:58:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	SELL	60	47¢	$28	0x59ad25…
05-23 06:57:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xe69e9b…
05-23 06:57:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xc63378…
05-23 06:54:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x33a9c4…
05-23 04:50:49	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	3¢	$8	0x594e12…
05-23 04:50:24	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	215	5¢	$11	0x08dd81…
05-22 13:14:06	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	102	79¢	$81	0x7905be…
05-22 13:13:10	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	27¢	$12	0x55d724…
05-22 13:12:38	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	27¢	$7	0x94e015…
05-22 13:12:14	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x466dd3…
05-22 13:10:10	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	133	64¢	$84	0x6f67e0…
05-21 03:26:03	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	2¢	$2	0xd609d1…
05-21 03:25:35	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	133	24¢	$32	0x7e143d…
05-21 03:25:26	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	22¢	$30	0xebfc48…
05-21 03:24:13	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	43¢	$68	0xa7ef1a…
05-19 21:00:55	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	17¢	$27	0xc07c0e…
05-19 21:00:20	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	158	13¢	$21	0xbb1ecd…
05-19 20:59:26	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	214	3¢	$6	0xe144a0…
05-19 20:59:05	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	297	0¢	$1	0x195bfb…
05-19 14:16:24	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	157	97¢	$152	0x2c2ac2…
05-19 14:15:34	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	4¢	$1	0xc571d9…
05-19 14:15:32	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xe04fb2…
05-19 14:15:32	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x7c5f93…
05-19 14:15:32	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x2c37ff…
05-19 14:14:50	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	4¢	$1	0x426cc3…
05-19 14:14:29	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x6d76f2…
05-19 13:03:01	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x1f248c…
05-19 12:55:44	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0xaf9eef…
05-19 12:40:11	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x82b7ff…
05-19 12:39:59	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x05038a…
05-19 11:09:34	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	167	99¢	$166	0xd71d5d…
05-19 03:59:42	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x4a71dc…
05-19 03:59:21	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	179	6¢	$10	0xdfc8e8…
05-19 03:58:38	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	9	94¢	$8	0x0fb39b…
05-18 21:20:02	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	174	86¢	$150	0xb0c656…
05-18 10:40:19	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	155	94¢	$145	0x5c5ff3…
05-18 10:38:54	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	6¢	$4	0x425f7f…
05-18 10:38:12	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	6¢	$2	0xefc0e6…
05-18 10:37:37	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	107	6¢	$6	0x43ca89…
05-18 08:22:43	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	217	13¢	$28	0xbee1a1…
05-18 08:22:36	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	No	SELL	153	86¢	$132	0xc6f5bb…
05-18 04:21:58	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	No	BUY	153	97¢	$149	0xedad37…
05-18 04:18:27	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	No	SELL	165	91¢	$150	0x8a96f1…
05-17 11:39:24	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	No	BUY	165	47¢	$78	0xde6a88…