Wary-Deviation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$730

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.2%

Resolved

6,352

Trades

15,747

lifetime

Volume

$36.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-17

last 10-15 11:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 130 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 55% -$715

Other

1% 41% -$19

Politics

0% 100% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 445 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 23:35 UTC	58	$177	187	167	+20	Up	-$3	02-24 23:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 23:25 UTC	55	$162	164	161	+3	Up	-$1	02-24 23:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 23:40 UTC	45	$145	158	117	+41	Down	-$13	02-24 23:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 23:30 UTC	50	$144	147	150	-3	Down	-$4	02-24 23:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 23:20 UTC	40	$106	119	115	+4	Up	-$3	02-24 23:21
por fam cas 2026 02 23 fam	24	$90	74	74	-0	Yes	-$1	02-23 01:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 00:45 UTC	29	$80	85	78	+7	Down	-$3	02-25 00:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	2	$78	80	80	+0	Down	+$30	09-24 07:08
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-26 05:45 UTC	6	$78	80	80	+0	Down	+$30	09-26 05:51
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-25 10:15 UTC	2	$77	80	80	+0	Up	+$29	09-25 10:23
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 02:45 UTC	3	$76	80	80	+0	Down	+$28	09-30 02:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	4	$76	80	80	+0	Down	+$28	09-29 20:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-31 05:00 UTC	5	$76	80	80	+0	Up	+$28	08-31 05:05
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-01 03:15 UTC	3	$76	80	80	+0	Up	+$28	09-01 03:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-26 11:45 UTC	2	$75	80	80	+0	Down	+$27	09-26 11:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-31 16:15 UTC	5	$75	80	80	+0	Down	+$27	08-31 16:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 20:45 UTC	6	$75	80	80	+0	Down	+$27	09-30 20:52
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 06:45 UTC	9	$75	80	80	+0	Down	+$27	09-30 06:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 01:15 UTC	2	$74	80	80	+0	Up	+$31	10-01 01:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	5	$74	80	80	+0	Down	+$26	09-25 03:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	3	$74	80	80	+0	Up	+$26	09-23 07:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 14:30 UTC	2	$74	80	80	+0	Down	+$26	09-29 14:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-25 08:45 UTC	3	$74	80	80	+0	Up	+$26	09-25 08:51
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-25 13:30 UTC	2	$74	80	80	+0	Down	+$26	09-25 13:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	4	$74	80	80	+0	Down	+$26	09-22 22:49
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 05:15 UTC	5	$74	80	80	+0	Up	+$26	09-30 05:18
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 09:00 UTC	8	$73	80	80	+0	Up	+$25	10-14 09:07
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-31 04:45 UTC	2	$73	80	80	+0	Up	+$25	08-31 04:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 21:15 UTC	2	$73	80	80	+0	Down	+$25	09-30 21:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	4	$73	80	80	+0	Down	+$25	09-22 15:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-15 11:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xdc206d…
10-15 11:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x6987f7…
10-15 11:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	31	30¢	$9	0x530200…
10-15 11:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	24	30¢	$7	0x1bac11…
10-15 11:49:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x60046d…
10-15 11:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x0ac3aa…
10-15 11:49:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xcccb5c…
10-14 10:18:02	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0xf9774b…
10-14 10:18:02	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0xd4b230…
10-14 10:18:02	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	64	30¢	$19	0x8f871c…
10-14 09:20:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x6374b2…
10-14 09:20:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x414cc7…
10-14 09:20:50	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x9b21dd…
10-14 09:20:50	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x04c8ed…
10-14 09:18:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0xe795e9…
10-14 09:07:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 09:00 UTC	Down	SELL	80	62¢	$49	0x596c78…
10-14 09:04:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0x386d18…
10-14 09:04:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0x29cb52…
10-14 09:04:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	15	30¢	$4	0x183dea…
10-14 09:04:23	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x4c8a13…
10-14 09:04:23	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	30¢	$0	0x32c7a1…
10-14 09:04:23	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x2d1179…
10-14 09:04:23	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x139a92…
10-11 11:48:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xfb1c74…
10-11 11:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	39	30¢	$12	0xc6ea23…
10-11 11:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x35d54c…
10-11 11:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x0f58a9…
10-11 11:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x0109ff…
10-11 11:48:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xed7cda…
10-11 11:48:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x9135c9…
10-11 11:48:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x5dd4b4…
10-11 11:17:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	80	30¢	$24	0x13b89a…
10-11 08:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	62	64¢	$40	0x3b568b…
10-11 08:31:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x75c78e…
10-11 08:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0xdd9724…
10-11 08:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	30¢	$4	0xae3446…
10-11 08:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	30¢	$4	0x5dba82…
10-02 18:33:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xea9163…
10-02 18:33:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x787214…
10-02 18:33:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x10357a…
10-02 18:16:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	40	30¢	$12	0x9cd635…
10-02 18:00:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	0	30¢	$0	0x2c87be…
10-02 18:00:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xf99cb2…
10-02 18:00:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	14	30¢	$4	0x37a353…
10-02 17:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$1	0xe9e775…
10-02 17:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xc9b00b…
10-02 17:15:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x635fe7…
10-02 17:08:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0xb05f2d…
10-02 17:01:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x2702b0…
10-02 16:56:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xedd8a1…
10-02 16:45:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xcdf21b…
10-02 16:23:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x43d0a2…
10-02 16:17:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x38c9d8…
10-02 16:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x8c417c…
10-02 16:01:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x9c2d59…
10-02 14:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	SELL	80	60¢	$48	0xc08e68…
10-02 14:48:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x204a2b…
10-02 14:48:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	74	30¢	$22	0xa0fbc6…
10-02 14:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	26	30¢	$8	0x1903de…
10-02 14:33:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xde5c3a…
10-02 14:33:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	49	30¢	$15	0x9ced20…
10-01 06:18:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 06:15 UTC	Up	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xf32ccd…
10-01 06:18:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 06:15 UTC	Up	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x9db009…
10-01 06:18:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 06:15 UTC	Up	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x7e3318…
10-01 06:05:23	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	29	30¢	$9	0xacb2c8…
10-01 06:05:23	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	51	30¢	$15	0x7c35f6…
10-01 05:20:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 05:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x6738a9…
10-01 05:19:54	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 05:15 UTC	Down	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0xab91e0…
10-01 05:19:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 05:15 UTC	Down	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0x35974f…
10-01 05:19:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 05:15 UTC	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x44a2d6…
10-01 05:19:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 05:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xea24de…
10-01 05:03:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 05:00 UTC	Up	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x1ba79e…
10-01 05:02:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 05:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	30¢	$0	0x66d262…
10-01 05:02:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 05:00 UTC	Up	BUY	18	30¢	$6	0x1af7b4…
10-01 04:46:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x2daf08…
10-01 03:36:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 03:30 UTC	Up	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x575b55…
10-01 03:31:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 03:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0xcaec23…
10-01 03:31:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 03:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x322d5d…
10-01 03:11:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 03:00 UTC	Up	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x0ffd44…
10-01 03:04:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x43bd98…
10-01 02:51:36	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 02:45 UTC	Up	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x8718f6…
10-01 02:49:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xcce075…
10-01 02:37:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0x1225cd…
10-01 02:30:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 02:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xba481c…
10-01 02:30:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 02:30 UTC	Down	BUY	14	30¢	$4	0x746bc6…
10-01 02:18:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 02:15 UTC	Up	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x07bc49…
10-01 02:16:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x4e878a…
10-01 02:16:38	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x72c545…
10-01 02:00:38	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x8a81d9…
10-01 01:30:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0x4c5488…
10-01 01:30:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xb2dacb…
10-01 01:17:57	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 01:15 UTC	Up	SELL	80	66¢	$53	0x705d20…
10-01 01:15:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 01:15 UTC	Up	BUY	80	27¢	$22	0x89a9ef…
10-01 00:16:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 00:15 UTC	Up	BUY	77	30¢	$23	0xb1ec19…
10-01 00:16:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 00:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xe0e5c3…
09-30 23:53:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 23:45 UTC	Up	SELL	16	60¢	$10	0xe8a9ea…
09-30 23:48:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0x3991ce…
09-30 23:47:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x07231d…
09-30 23:47:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xd22964…
09-30 23:46:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x7dc77d…