Excited-Judgment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$127

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-11

last 06-05 17:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

71% 0% $-2

Crypto

14% — —

Politics

13% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes		+33	$3	3¢	$1	$-2	06-05 17:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ucl bog1 spo1 2026 03 11 spo1	2	$17	555	0	+555	open	—	03-11 21:06
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	2	$15	11	11	+0	open	—	03-20 20:23
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	2	$11	56	0	+56	open	—	03-13 15:07
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	1	$10	33	0	+33	open	—	03-12 20:26
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	1	$10	23	0	+23	open	—	03-12 20:25
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	1	$10	17	0	+17	open	—	03-12 19:31
btc updown 5m 1773258000	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	03-11 19:40
ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 mnc1	4	$4	582	0	+582	open	—	03-11 21:25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	3	$3	33	0	+33	open	—	06-05 17:40
btc updown 5m 1774038300	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	03-20 20:27
will wti reach 150 in june 2026 555	1	$2	88	0	+88	open	—	06-05 17:51
ucl psg1 cfc1 2026 03 11 cfc1	2	$2	20	0	+20	open	—	03-11 21:05
btc updown 5m 1780681500	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	06-05 17:49
Will Erling Haaland be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	1	$1	27	0	+27	open	—	03-12 15:59
btc updown 5m 1773255600	1	$1	25	0	+25	open	—	03-11 19:03
btc updown 5m 1773264000	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	03-11 21:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	1	$1	100	0	+100	open	—	04-30 11:25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	1	$1	111	0	+111	open	—	05-07 05:56
ucl psg1 cfc1 2026 03 11 draw	1	$1	4	0	+4	open	—	03-11 19:54
ucl bog1 spo1 2026 03 11 btts	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	03-11 19:59
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	1	$1	4	0	+4	open	—	03-11 19:27
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	1	$1	17	0	+17	open	—	03-12 20:25
ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 halftime result draw	1	$1	7	0	+7	open	—	03-11 20:29
Will Julian Alvarez be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	1	$1	21	0	+21	No	$-1	03-12 15:59
btc updown 5m 1773259200	1	$1	4	0	+4	open	—	03-11 20:01
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	03-11 18:59
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	1	$1	11	0	+11	Over	$-1	05-06 17:12
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	03-11 19:24
ucl bog1 spo1 2026 03 11 draw	1	$1	4	0	+4	open	—	03-11 19:54
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	03-13 14:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 17:51:49	will wti reach 150 in june 2026 555	Yes	BUY	88	2¢	$2	0xf5a612…
06-05 17:49:19	btc updown 5m 1780681500	Down	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x167ee7…
06-05 17:47:15	btc updown 5m 1780681500	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xe48401…
06-05 17:40:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xc3a6b3…
06-05 17:40:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xdbb945…
06-05 17:40:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x667534…
05-07 05:57:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x6109dd…
05-07 05:56:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x9ea6d9…
05-06 17:12:57	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x8c9817…
04-30 11:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x58d932…
03-20 20:27:37	btc updown 5m 1774038300	Down	SELL	2	88¢	$1	0x989610…
03-20 20:25:33	btc updown 5m 1774038300	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x8c2b3b…
03-20 20:23:41	will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	No	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0xf34755…
03-13 15:07:15	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xccc4ea…
03-13 14:20:19	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xe7c263…
03-12 20:26:09	will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x6bbe87…
03-12 20:25:53	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xa6d37e…
03-12 20:25:05	will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x7fce94…
03-12 19:35:29	ucl ars lev 2026 03 17 lev	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x955441…
03-12 19:35:05	ucl spo1 bog1 2026 03 17 bog1	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x9f5ea7…
03-12 19:31:03	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x1bcec1…
03-12 16:07:41	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xcee1d7…
03-12 15:59:41	Will Erling Haaland be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x145624…
03-12 15:59:27	Will Julian Alvarez be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x59d710…
03-12 15:59:01	Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x026e74…
03-11 21:34:05	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x7bbdf4…
03-11 21:32:53	will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	No	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xaff316…
03-11 21:25:51	ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 mnc1	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xeba451…
03-11 21:20:49	btc updown 5m 1773264000	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xbc69e8…
03-11 21:17:31	btc updown 5m 1773263700	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x33fbd2…
03-11 21:07:17	ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 mnc1	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x8cd1a4…
03-11 21:06:43	ucl bog1 spo1 2026 03 11 spo1	Yes	BUY	522	3¢	$16	0x14a8be…
03-11 21:05:59	ucl psg1 cfc1 2026 03 11 cfc1	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x1d722a…
03-11 21:05:13	ucl bog1 spo1 2026 03 11 spo1	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xa9d386…
03-11 20:38:07	ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 mnc1	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xeff9ee…
03-11 20:29:09	ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 halftime result draw	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x49881f…
03-11 20:28:11	ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 mnc1	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x734dc1…
03-11 20:17:53	ucl psg1 cfc1 2026 03 11 cfc1	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xa8c8b8…
03-11 20:01:19	btc updown 5m 1773259200	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xe81c25…
03-11 19:59:25	ucl bog1 spo1 2026 03 11 btts	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x7fa51d…
03-11 19:59:15	ucl bog1 spo1 2026 03 11 total 1pt5	Under	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x8ac79e…
03-11 19:54:45	ucl bog1 spo1 2026 03 11 draw	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x3dbe16…
03-11 19:54:23	ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 draw	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x626082…
03-11 19:54:13	ucl psg1 cfc1 2026 03 11 draw	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xbc6e91…
03-11 19:51:19	btc updown 5m 1773258600	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xa7fe72…
03-11 19:40:35	btc updown 5m 1773258000	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x6974e8…
03-11 19:37:19	btc updown 5m 1773257700	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xd02087…
03-11 19:28:07	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x9ec253…
03-11 19:27:57	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x5dc366…
03-11 19:24:31	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x81d22b…
03-11 19:17:47	north korea missile test by march 31 472	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xb6902a…
03-11 19:11:39	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xd85eb9…
03-11 19:05:49	btc updown 5m 1773255900	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x720b4b…
03-11 19:03:35	btc updown 5m 1773255600	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x218d88…
03-11 19:02:23	will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xf00e07…
03-11 19:00:17	Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0xb7dd90…
03-11 18:59:45	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x02429a…