Scratchy-Party — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

91.7%

Resolved

Trades

121

lifetime

Volume

$686

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 05-28 16:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

55% 50% +$8

Other

26% — —

Sports

9% — —

Tech

8% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	6	$78	53	53	+0	open	—	03-28 13:48
another us government shutdown by february 14	3	$37	61	41	+20	open	—	02-13 14:25
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	3	$34	19	19	+0	open	—	02-20 16:07
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	3	$33	28	28	+0	Yes	+$11	05-02 15:56
Will Meghan Frank be the next CEO of Lululemon?	3	$33	35	10	+26	open	—	04-01 19:17
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	3	$29	20	20	+0	open	—	03-12 14:33
will kenneth walker iii win the super bowl lx mvp	2	$26	16	16	+0	open	—	02-09 04:06
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$24	14	14	+0	open	—	04-06 18:09
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	2	$23	15	15	+0	open	—	02-20 16:08
will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	2	$22	32	0	+32	open	—	02-20 16:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$22	16	16	+0	open	—	04-27 18:47
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	2	$19	11	11	+0	open	—	02-09 01:55
bad bunny wears a dress at the super bowl	2	$18	10	10	+0	open	—	02-09 01:40
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	2	$16	11	11	+0	open	—	04-07 22:53
will trump say election at fort bragg on friday	1	$15	20	0	+20	open	—	02-13 17:55
Will Teri List be the next CEO of Lululemon?	1	$15	15	0	+15	open	—	02-19 02:55
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	4	$13	17	17	+0	open	—	04-07 23:13
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	05-21 17:56
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?	1	$11	15	0	+15	open	—	02-26 19:35
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	05-28 16:40
will trump say biden during the black history month reception	1	$8	15	0	+15	open	—	02-18 16:35
will frankenstein win best makeup and hairstyling at the 98th academy awards	2	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	03-16 00:09
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	05-25 17:31
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	05-20 21:56
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	05-15 12:37
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	1	$7	11	0	+11	open	—	04-23 21:53
will google gemini 3 score at least 60 on the frontiermath benchmark by	1	$6	25	0	+25	open	—	01-07 14:06
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	1	$6	7	0	+7	open	—	02-27 13:54
will trump be said at the oscars	2	$5	6	6	+0	open	—	03-16 01:17
will leavitt say tariff during the next white house press briefing	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	03-04 18:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-28 16:40:39	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0xefd4a9…
05-25 17:31:05	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x166c82…
05-25 17:29:37	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0xda5324…
05-22 22:18:44	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xaecae9…
05-22 17:11:26	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xb71be7…
05-21 21:12:41	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xdde3d5…
05-21 17:56:44	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x0dbaae…
05-20 21:56:47	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0xffe5e9…
05-15 17:17:47	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x59ddd7…
05-15 12:37:19	Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x5d7041…
05-14 21:03:57	Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xaac58d…
05-14 18:53:03	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xeda53e…
05-14 18:52:39	Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xb5f568…
05-14 13:10:59	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	3	84¢	$3	0xa5d884…
05-13 23:24:09	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	3	72¢	$2	0x671254…
05-13 16:57:55	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x7a55aa…
05-13 16:56:50	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x344c6d…
05-08 02:52:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0xab87d5…
05-08 02:38:08	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xb221c5…
05-02 15:56:14	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	28	80¢	$22	0x8157ac…
04-29 03:35:10	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x5f22dc…
04-27 18:47:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x82a02c…
04-27 15:51:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x30dcaf…
04-25 16:18:32	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x2e6ccd…
04-24 03:54:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xc014a6…
04-23 21:53:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	65¢	$7	0x15c213…
04-23 19:50:54	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	BUY	28	7¢	$2	0xd49939…
04-19 23:50:54	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0xac3451…
04-18 03:49:08	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	Yes	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x44d9e3…
04-18 03:48:34	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xb44adb…
04-10 16:32:17	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xfd0650…
04-08 18:13:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	8	72¢	$6	0xe2d03d…
04-08 02:38:01	will trump say greenland during events with rutte	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x11a246…
04-08 02:34:29	will trump say eight wars or eighth war during events with rutte	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x86b0e3…
04-08 02:26:41	will trump praise allah again by april 15	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x7f97b4…
04-08 02:26:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	8	41¢	$3	0x515db6…
04-07 23:36:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xd4192b…
04-07 23:13:03	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	Yes	SELL	9	2¢	$0	0x025ca3…
04-07 22:53:25	trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	Yes	SELL	11	94¢	$11	0xa47d8d…
04-07 17:56:17	trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xbb4fae…
04-07 16:13:03	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x486069…
04-07 16:12:01	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	No	SELL	8	68¢	$5	0xfa55b7…
04-07 13:10:37	will trump praise allah again by april 15	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb972fe…
04-07 13:08:47	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x1111a9…
04-06 18:09:49	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x2574e6…
04-01 19:17:45	Will Meghan Frank be the next CEO of Lululemon?	No	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0x44f68e…
04-01 19:16:51	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0xec69c5…
04-01 15:43:51	will trump say god 3 times during address to the nation	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x520642…
04-01 15:43:35	will trump say fake news during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x544e2a…
04-01 15:43:19	will trump say peace through strength during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x1c6f8d…
03-30 15:21:33	will leavitt say houthi or houthis during the next white house press briefing	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x8fe72a…
03-30 02:51:28	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x9581cd…
03-28 13:52:43	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x105f61…
03-28 13:48:37	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	15	97¢	$14	0xa3508c…
03-26 01:23:43	will trump say tariff or tax 20 times during national agriculture day events	No	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0xb492c1…
03-25 22:59:55	will trump say favored nation at the nrcc dinner on march 25 338	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x1142f5…
03-25 22:59:41	will trump say egg at the nrcc dinner on march 25 988	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xf35b4d…
03-25 18:54:33	will trump say hell 8 times at the nrcc dinner on march 25	No	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xea53ef…
03-19 21:38:23	will leavitt say ice during the next white house press briefing 894	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x5b56a9…
03-19 21:38:07	will leavitt say sponsor of terror during the next white house press briefing	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xbdb2b0…
03-17 17:28:55	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0x59ef81…
03-17 01:40:31	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xe395ca…
03-16 01:24:59	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xd2a2c1…
03-16 01:17:29	will trump be said at the oscars	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x82bbfc…
03-16 01:01:11	will peace be said at the oscars	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x29c5b7…
03-16 01:00:17	will ukraine be said at the oscars	Yes	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0x8f6107…
03-16 00:10:41	will hottest be said at the oscars	No	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x1a5849…
03-16 00:09:43	will the secret agent win best international feature film at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x22cdeb…
03-16 00:09:03	will frankenstein win best makeup and hairstyling at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xcdccbb…
03-15 23:52:41	will f1 the movie win best film editing at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	16	14¢	$2	0x149565…
03-15 23:51:25	will frankenstein win best makeup and hairstyling at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x0d9b2e…
03-15 23:49:19	will shame be said at the oscars	No	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xeb0239…
03-15 23:48:57	will chalamet be said 5 times at the oscars	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x058d3c…
03-15 23:46:07	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0xc29675…
03-15 22:58:09	will epstein be said at the oscars	No	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0x74a1fa…
03-15 22:58:03	will trump be said at the oscars	Yes	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x4f6214…
03-15 20:11:45	will ukraine be said at the oscars	Yes	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x14b51f…
03-15 19:45:03	will will smith or punch be said at the oscars	No	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0xcc5aab…
03-14 16:34:01	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xa73b82…
03-13 18:03:21	will vance say fake news during his rocky mount visit	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x991b87…
03-13 18:01:33	will vance say border 4 times during his rocky mount visit	No	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xc0f65b…
03-12 14:36:15	will trump say movie star during womens history month event	No	BUY	7	38¢	$3	0x548e4f…
03-12 14:34:51	will trump say biden during womens history month event	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x240d91…
03-12 14:34:09	will trump say kristi or noem during womens history month event	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x80f3ad…
03-12 14:33:51	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0x9ef860…
03-10 21:03:07	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	26	68¢	$18	0xe0ad3e…
03-10 12:37:51	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	27	67¢	$18	0x812c21…
03-06 00:54:47	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	11	70¢	$8	0x84fd7b…
03-05 19:06:51	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	SELL	10	73¢	$8	0x9d5bc6…
03-05 18:12:55	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x8c516b…
03-05 16:24:33	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x434446…
03-04 18:22:29	will leavitt say border during the next white house press briefing	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xe10404…
03-04 18:15:25	will leavitt say tariff during the next white house press briefing	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x498e04…
03-04 18:05:43	epl new mun 2026 03 04 mun	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xa6a67f…
03-04 13:50:37	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x42f9c2…
02-27 13:54:27	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0xfe0864…
02-26 19:35:32	US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?	No	BUY	15	71¢	$11	0x567c24…
02-20 16:09:14	will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	Yes	BUY	19	69¢	$13	0x71a5f0…
02-20 16:08:58	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	SELL	15	86¢	$13	0x8065ae…
02-20 16:08:20	will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xa4c1cc…