Essential-Mathematics — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.51K

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

61.5%

Resolved

365

Trades

1,248

lifetime

Volume

$36.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

$21

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 11-09 17:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 141 days

Categories

Other

91% 51% -$1,864

Crypto

9% 21% -$655

Sports

0% 75% +$8

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 121 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
elon musk of tweets november 12 november 14 2026 0 39	No		+11	$10	96¢	$11	+$1	11-09 17:11
elon musk of tweets november 9 november 11 2026 0 39	No		+11	$10	95¢	$10	+$0	11-07 17:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will England win on 2026-07-05?	2	$2.0K	1,125	1,125	+0	Yes	+$224	07-06 03:06
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	5	$1.6K	1,853	700	+1,153	Yes	+$408	06-13 21:32
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	2	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$453	07-04 18:54
fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 spread home 1pt5	6	$1.4K	1,000	1,000	+0	Mexico	+$574	07-01 04:01
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	2	$1.3K	1,000	750	+250	Yes	+$265	06-24 00:45
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?	3	$1.3K	1,010	1,010	+0	Yes	+$703	07-15 21:02
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	2	$1.1K	700	695	+5	Yes	+$335	06-15 03:46
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 spread home 1pt5	2	$780	1,000	1,000	+0	Cabo Verde	-$560	07-03 23:40
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	1	$640	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$360	06-20 14:00
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	2	$634	447	447	+0	Yes	+$234	07-10 20:58
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	3	$574	700	0	+700	No	-$574	06-13 13:14
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	13	$562	300	300	+0	No	$0	06-12 13:59
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	1	$530	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$530	06-15 12:33
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	12	$471	700	557	+143	No	-$75	07-02 03:58
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	2	$437	367	367	+0	Yes	-$69	06-12 13:57
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	2	$424	615	0	+615	Yes	+$191	06-11 02:18
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	1	$400	435	0	+435	No	+$35	06-18 06:20
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	3	$362	200	200	+0	No	+$14	06-08 15:19
fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 spread away 1pt5	2	$350	1,000	1,000	+0	Australia	-$10	07-03 15:08
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	1	$340	500	0	+500	No	-$340	06-15 12:21
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-23?	2	$334	200	200	+0	Yes	+$66	08-23 14:57
fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 1pt5	4	$333	200	200	+0	Portugal	+$61	06-23 18:04
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	1	$310	500	0	+500	No	-$310	06-15 12:10
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	3	$289	535	0	+535	No	-$289	06-12 14:24
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	1	$276	300	0	+300	No	-$276	06-15 11:51
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	1	$275	500	0	+500	Yes	+$225	06-27 00:27
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Team to Advance	3	$270	175	175	-0	Fenerbahçe SK	+$80	08-27 01:09
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	2	$253	155	155	+0	Yes	+$48	05-30 14:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-02 12:45 UTC	6	$253	200	200	+0	Down	+$121	08-02 12:58
fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 spread away 1pt5	2	$240	200	200	+0	Morocco	+$132	07-04 18:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-09 17:11:48	elon musk of tweets november 12 november 14 2026 0 39	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xde5793…
11-07 17:09:12	elon musk of tweets november 9 november 11 2026 0 39	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xbb6f43…
11-03 05:04:03	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x6a09aa…
10-24 16:12:24	elon musk of tweets october 26 october 28 2026 0 39	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x7b30f1…
10-22 16:36:06	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x38b0e6…
10-22 16:12:00	elon musk of tweets october 24 october 26 2026 0 39	No	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0xef9e5b…
10-19 16:40:18	elon musk of tweets october 22 october 24 2026 0 39	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x6539c4…
10-18 13:45:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	31	42¢	$13	0xd40763…
10-18 13:17:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	16	48¢	$8	0xdf8929…
10-18 13:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	70	27¢	$19	0xbf4cd5…
10-18 12:49:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	25	48¢	$12	0xe61eca…
10-18 12:49:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xd98f1d…
10-18 12:49:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x9f4b20…
10-18 12:49:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x712f3a…
10-18 12:45:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x17d412…
10-18 12:18:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x993cb8…
10-18 12:02:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x2c5304…
10-18 12:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0x0cc2fb…
10-18 11:49:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xb7fc8d…
10-18 11:49:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x964037…
10-18 05:21:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-18 05:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0xcf12a8…
10-18 05:21:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-18 05:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	43¢	$0	0xe78bc7…
10-17 11:45:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	42	47¢	$20	0x2f12b0…
10-17 11:41:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xd44335…
10-17 10:38:38	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x0174aa…
10-17 10:17:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0xe368e5…
10-17 09:06:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0xc5f553…
10-17 05:53:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 05:45 UTC	Up	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0xd8b708…
10-17 04:59:31	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 05:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	49¢	$2	0xaf1a1e…
10-17 04:59:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 05:00 UTC	Down	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x6e2a83…
10-17 04:58:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 05:00 UTC	Down	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x71b8e0…
10-17 04:56:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 05:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	49¢	$0	0x5f8c99…
10-17 04:49:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 05:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xbc5313…
10-17 03:51:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0xb09cec…
10-17 03:51:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	38	47¢	$18	0xab9a82…
10-17 03:51:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	47¢	$2	0xab0b0a…
10-16 14:22:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0x8e75ab…
10-16 07:22:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	42	71¢	$30	0xee3234…
10-16 06:59:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	25	52¢	$13	0xf7c466…
10-15 15:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	249	52¢	$130	0x197c77…
10-15 15:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	62	53¢	$33	0xf87a3d…
10-15 15:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	63	53¢	$33	0x7e7b01…
10-15 15:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	75	53¢	$40	0x1ca0ef…
10-15 15:13:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x6100b9…
10-15 14:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0xea0f4f…
10-15 13:48:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x786d0c…
10-15 13:25:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0x010fd5…
10-15 13:15:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$2	0xfe1498…
10-15 13:15:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x985966…
10-15 13:15:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x7e96f1…
10-15 03:30:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-15 03:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x221335…
10-12 18:38:29	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x77c3e1…
10-12 07:34:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xf468f9…
10-12 06:42:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0x15de7d…
10-12 06:33:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x958140…
10-12 06:27:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xb890d5…
10-12 06:14:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0x253d6b…
10-12 05:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x27ff26…
10-12 05:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xaedc1d…
10-12 05:42:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x7d170b…
10-09 18:58:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3PM ET	Up	SELL	1	55¢	$1	0xa2c638…
10-09 18:58:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3PM ET	Up	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0xb1c3a2…
10-09 15:31:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 11AM ET	Up	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0xffe234…
10-09 12:51:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4PM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x9aa9a9…
10-09 12:51:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7AM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xe26213…
10-09 12:51:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5PM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xbdfdd4…
10-09 12:51:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2PM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xaf1e57…
10-09 12:51:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3AM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xd7d749…
10-09 12:50:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 9AM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xdb6d25…
10-09 12:50:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7PM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x2a958e…
10-09 12:50:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 1PM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x4004cf…
10-09 12:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xbb1fa7…
10-09 12:50:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 1AM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xafcee5…
10-09 12:50:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2AM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x68d6fe…
10-09 12:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 8PM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x2c67d0…
10-09 12:49:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1AM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x5cbcc6…
10-09 12:49:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12AM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x37ac68…
10-09 12:49:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9PM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xa0ebd7…
10-09 12:49:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 9PM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x57fa4a…
10-09 12:48:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7AM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xcb172f…
10-09 12:48:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5AM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x1f982b…
10-09 12:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3PM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x462d56…
10-09 12:48:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11PM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xbe4c90…
10-09 12:48:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4AM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xbaeb28…
10-09 12:47:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 10AM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xe1d112…
10-09 12:47:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9AM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x7a63be…
10-09 12:47:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7PM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x181d2c…
10-09 12:47:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5AM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x1e92b5…
10-09 12:47:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3AM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xb545cb…
10-09 12:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6PM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x87b8ee…
10-09 12:46:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8PM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x261c7f…
10-09 12:46:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 10PM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x97ffb3…
10-09 12:45:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 8AM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x333132…
10-09 12:42:54	bitcoin up or down october 10 2026 6am et	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x1e19e9…
10-09 12:42:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 11PM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xa51913…
10-09 12:42:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4PM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x2140e5…
10-09 12:42:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 12AM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x4e520c…
10-09 12:41:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4AM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x116223…
10-09 12:41:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 5PM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x024253…
10-09 12:41:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2AM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x5ce0f3…