Trusting-Lard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,110

lifetime

Volume

$21.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-02

last 04-28 09:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

49% — —

Tech

28% — —

Politics

24% 100% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 152 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	58	$2.3K	1,249	1,126	+123	open	—	04-28 09:00
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	47	$1.9K	1,078	950	+128	open	—	04-23 09:00
will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	46	$1.5K	766	766	+0	open	—	04-15 08:17
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	57	$1.3K	737	614	+123	open	—	04-23 09:00
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	59	$874	438	438	-0	open	—	04-15 03:24
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?	39	$845	496	373	+123	open	—	04-23 09:00
Trump out as President by April 30?	44	$720	424	300	+123	open	—	04-23 09:00
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	44	$719	424	300	+123	open	—	04-23 09:00
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	42	$696	413	289	+123	open	—	04-23 09:00
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	35	$574	350	227	+123	open	—	04-23 09:00
will google have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 941	44	$565	400	183	+216	open	—	03-29 09:00
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	35	$563	410	193	+217	open	—	03-29 09:00
x banned in uk by march 31	35	$558	390	174	+217	open	—	03-29 09:00
will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	38	$557	391	175	+217	open	—	03-29 09:00
minneapolis border patrol shooter charged	37	$495	362	145	+218	open	—	03-29 09:00
will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	35	$456	358	104	+254	open	—	03-11 09:31
will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	35	$456	360	104	+255	open	—	03-11 09:31
will leonardo dicaprio win best actor at the 98th academy awards	28	$434	363	96	+267	open	—	03-12 09:00
will paul thomas anderson win best director at the 98th academy awards	27	$430	365	98	+267	open	—	03-11 09:31
Iran leadership change by April 30?	16	$422	220	220	+0	open	—	04-18 13:20
deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	26	$417	328	106	+222	open	—	03-31 09:03
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	11	$408	212	212	+0	open	—	04-18 13:24
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	11	$406	216	216	-0	open	—	04-18 13:22
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	25	$400	354	51	+303	open	—	03-18 09:01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	34	$389	280	157	+124	open	—	04-28 09:00
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	10	$369	193	193	+0	open	—	04-18 13:23
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 240 259	21	$354	343	66	+277	open	—	03-17 09:29
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	23	$299	213	89	+123	open	—	04-23 09:00
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	22	$288	207	83	+123	open	—	04-23 09:00
will ethan hawke win best actor at the 98th academy awards	24	$279	270	15	+255	open	—	03-11 09:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
04-28 09:00:36	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xca3769…
04-28 09:00:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x50bd32…
04-24 09:05:42	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x20fbd3…
04-24 09:03:42	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xd83bff…
04-24 09:00:26	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	44	92¢	$40	0x860851…
04-24 09:00:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	90¢	$37	0x374c62…
04-23 09:11:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	No	BUY	42	99¢	$41	0xb1be4b…
04-23 09:09:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	No	BUY	42	99¢	$41	0x4bbbe9…
04-23 09:07:50	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	No	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0x3096d1…
04-23 09:03:48	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	8	69¢	$6	0x6f0ae0…
04-23 09:00:28	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xf1e2ab…
04-23 09:00:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xc9d15b…
04-23 09:00:28	Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xc1efe1…
04-23 09:00:28	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	68¢	$23	0xbc7ae9…
04-23 09:00:28	Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xb434c7…
04-23 09:00:28	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xa34581…
04-23 09:00:28	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	8	96¢	$7	0xa1e22d…
04-23 09:00:28	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x869ceb…
04-23 09:00:28	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x85895d…
04-23 09:00:28	Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x801253…
04-23 09:00:28	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x7907f3…
04-23 09:00:28	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0x74ac6d…
04-23 09:00:28	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x659ed1…
04-23 09:00:28	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$7	0x5fe0c7…
04-23 09:00:28	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x0cb995…
04-22 09:07:48	Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Yes	BUY	44	98¢	$43	0xd5fe5c…
04-22 09:05:48	Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Yes	BUY	44	98¢	$43	0x013275…
04-22 09:03:46	Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Yes	BUY	44	98¢	$43	0x135b03…
04-22 09:00:26	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$8	0xffd4c7…
04-22 09:00:26	Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xf0ab70…
04-22 09:00:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xd912c1…
04-22 09:00:26	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0xc9d4e6…
04-22 09:00:26	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xa2906c…
04-22 09:00:26	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x802d39…
04-22 09:00:26	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x77f3aa…
04-22 09:00:26	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x5e66c2…
04-22 09:00:26	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x5726a2…
04-22 09:00:26	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	9	68¢	$6	0x500e19…
04-22 09:00:26	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x4631dd…
04-22 09:00:26	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x2bc419…
04-22 09:00:26	Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x0a9365…
04-21 09:29:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0xf72701…
04-21 09:26:46	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xe3c51d…
04-21 09:23:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xe23fcb…
04-21 09:20:22	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xc43bd4…
04-21 09:17:08	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xaa9a45…
04-21 09:13:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x24adff…
04-21 09:10:44	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x3623c5…
04-21 09:07:30	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xae9875…
04-21 09:04:18	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x1d5c41…
04-21 09:01:04	Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xf48fc6…
04-21 09:01:04	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	48	72¢	$35	0x2b42a3…
04-21 09:01:04	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x0c1820…
04-21 09:01:02	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xcaa20b…
04-21 09:01:02	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x71688d…
04-21 09:01:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x63b317…
04-21 09:01:02	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x397cdd…
04-21 09:01:02	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$5	0x2afab3…
04-21 09:01:02	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x11060d…
04-20 09:37:36	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xceeb48…
04-20 09:37:36	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 180 199	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xb8c0e8…
04-20 09:37:36	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x870071…
04-20 09:37:36	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x80c228…
04-20 09:37:36	Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x41b1df…
04-20 09:34:18	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	BUY	14	97¢	$14	0xe441cf…
04-20 09:34:18	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 180 199	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xddc6c2…
04-20 09:34:18	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0xb0873f…
04-20 09:34:18	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x60de1d…
04-20 09:34:18	Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x584caf…
04-20 09:34:18	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x3934f2…
04-20 09:34:06	Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xaa9b44…
04-20 09:30:50	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xfce4f8…
04-20 09:30:50	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	BUY	14	97¢	$14	0xfc135c…
04-20 09:30:50	Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x95e44f…
04-20 09:30:50	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x73fc31…
04-20 09:30:50	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 180 199	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x62c5ce…
04-20 09:30:50	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x5d7602…
04-20 09:30:50	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x534780…
04-20 09:30:50	Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x2b5af2…
04-20 09:30:50	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	92¢	$7	0x2a190a…
04-20 09:30:50	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x15b96b…
04-20 09:30:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$7	0x061227…
04-20 09:30:48	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xee8f8b…
04-20 09:30:48	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xb2d2bb…
04-20 09:30:48	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$5	0x97b527…
04-20 09:30:48	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x597afd…
04-20 09:27:26	Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xf76e23…
04-20 09:27:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$7	0xef20b0…
04-20 09:27:26	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xcd51bb…
04-20 09:27:26	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xc09971…
04-20 09:27:26	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xaff0bb…
04-20 09:27:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	92¢	$7	0x83dce2…
04-20 09:27:26	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x77a74e…
04-20 09:27:26	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x77806c…
04-20 09:27:26	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$5	0x751bfd…
04-20 09:27:26	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x6c8f9d…
04-20 09:27:26	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	BUY	14	97¢	$14	0x6a5f21…
04-20 09:27:26	Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x3bfd09…
04-20 09:27:26	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 180 199	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x1286a4…
04-20 09:27:26	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x0a7a33…