Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$181

Unrealized P&L

+$12

Hit rate

54.4%

Resolved

555

Trades

932

lifetime

Volume

$5.59K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$609

18 positions

First seen

2026-09-08

last 10-30 16:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Other

72% 52% +$175

Politics

25% 61% +$10

Sports

2% 56% -$2

Pop-Culture

1% 33% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 72 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+100	$32	100¢	$100	+$68	10-27 19:13
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	+98	$92	92¢	$91	-$1	10-28 18:12
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	+101	$87	88¢	$89	+$3	10-30 16:19
Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?	No	+101	$84	86¢	$87	+$3	10-29 15:20
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+102	$62	71¢	$73	+$11	10-29 19:00
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+99	$69	68¢	$68	-$1	10-30 16:31
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	+99	$28	29¢	$29	+$1	10-30 16:31
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	+102	$35	28¢	$28	-$6	10-29 19:00
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?	No	+101	$16	15¢	$15	-$2	10-29 15:20
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	+101	$13	13¢	$13	$0	10-30 16:19
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+98	$4	5¢	$5	+$1	10-28 18:12
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	+5	$1	99¢	$5	+$4	10-24 11:49
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	+98	$2	2¢	$2	+$0	10-28 18:12
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	+99	$1	1¢	$1	$0	10-30 16:31
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+100	$68	1¢	$1	-$66	10-27 19:13
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+101	$1	1¢	$1	$0	10-30 16:31
Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+103	$2	1¢	$1	-$1	10-29 19:00
Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	+102	$1	1¢	$1	-$1	10-29 19:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Micron (MU) close at $940-$960 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16?	1	$123	146	0	+146	No	+$23	10-15 19:59
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	2	$96	100	2	+98	open	—	10-28 18:12
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close at $155-$160 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16?	2	$94	122	0	+122	No	+$28	10-13 16:59
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	2	$88	50	50	+0	No	$0	10-21 14:44
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	2	$87	101	0	+101	open	—	10-30 16:19
Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?	1	$84	101	0	+101	open	—	10-29 15:20
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	4	$80	132	0	+132	Yes	-$80	10-25 17:31
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	3	$76	97	0	+97	No	+$21	10-25 20:10
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	1	$69	99	0	+99	open	—	10-30 16:31
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$68	100	0	+100	open	—	10-27 19:13
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	2	$62	103	1	+102	open	—	10-29 19:00
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 18?	8	$55	36	36	+0	No	-$1	09-18 05:43
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	3	$49	132	0	+132	No	+$83	10-25 17:31
Will the Republican Party win the CT-01 House seat?	1	$48	50	0	+50	open	—	10-29 05:46
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on October 14?	2	$48	51	0	+51	No	+$4	10-13 22:46
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	2	$46	51	0	+51	No	+$5	10-27 01:29
Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	2	$44	102	0	+102	open	—	10-28 21:00
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?	1	$37	49	0	+49	open	—	10-25 10:03
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on October 24?	4	$36	45	5	+40	Yes	-$29	10-22 12:13
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	2	$35	103	1	+102	open	—	10-29 19:00
Will Delegado Éder Mauro win the most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?	2	$35	20	20	+0	No	+$0	10-04 21:26
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	2	$33	20	20	+0	No	-$1	10-25 00:46
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Pará?	3	$33	21	21	+0	No	-$4	10-04 13:16
Will Democrats win 6 or more House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	2	$32	102	0	+102	open	—	10-28 21:00
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$32	100	0	+100	open	—	10-27 19:13
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	2	$31	23	23	+0	No	$0	09-19 15:09
Will Kyle Barrett win the next Launceston mayoral election?	1	$30	37	0	+37	No	+$7	10-27 17:10
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	3	$29	30	0	+30	No	+$1	09-19 18:56
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	2	$29	101	2	+99	open	—	10-30 16:31
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 24?	2	$28	16	16	+0	No	$0	10-22 10:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 16:39:42	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Lieutenant Governor election?	No	SELL	1	35¢	$0	0xab7388…
10-30 16:39:40	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Lieutenant Governor election?	No	BUY	1	39¢	$0	0x51c38d…
10-30 16:31:45	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	2	26¢	$0	0x684563…
10-30 16:31:43	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	101	28¢	$28	0xba69c0…
10-30 16:31:43	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0x41a951…
10-30 16:31:43	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x0e1b3a…
10-30 16:31:42	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0xaec0fd…
10-30 16:31:42	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	99	69¢	$69	0x512aa0…
10-30 16:19:54	Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x482885…
10-30 16:19:52	Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	BUY	101	86¢	$87	0xf8f7ed…
10-30 16:19:52	Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	BUY	101	13¢	$13	0xe6013d…
10-30 10:01:13	Democratic Senate odds 66-68% on November 1?	No	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x9d3656…
10-30 10:01:13	Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 1?	No	BUY	4	62¢	$2	0x36f3c0…
10-30 10:01:13	Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on November 1?	No	BUY	4	63¢	$3	0x25b4ab…
10-30 10:01:13	Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on November 1?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x06910b…
10-29 19:00:27	Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	1	31¢	$0	0x270dbc…
10-29 19:00:25	Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	1	52¢	$0	0x36bb3a…
10-29 19:00:24	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	103	2¢	$2	0x7869c2…
10-29 19:00:24	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	102	1¢	$1	0x665f43…
10-29 19:00:24	Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	103	60¢	$62	0x42d2cd…
10-29 19:00:24	Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	103	34¢	$35	0x1041b2…
10-29 15:20:37	Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?	No	BUY	101	83¢	$84	0xe11757…
10-29 15:20:37	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?	No	BUY	101	16¢	$16	0xb1a8f0…
10-29 08:05:20	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?	Yes	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0xcc9256…
10-29 08:05:20	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0xaa76b9…
10-29 08:05:19	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0xa8f13c…
10-29 08:05:19	Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$1	0x3bd98c…
10-29 08:05:19	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	30	31¢	$9	0x2ac47a…
10-29 08:05:19	Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	29	9¢	$3	0x17d394…
10-29 08:05:19	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	29	46¢	$13	0x01a074…
10-29 05:46:16	Will the Democratic Party win the CT-01 House seat?	No	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0xcfa9c9…
10-29 05:46:16	Will the Republican Party win the CT-01 House seat?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x089ac9…
10-28 23:22:43	Will the Kansas Republican perform worst among these tossup Senate races?	Yes	BUY	50	43¢	$21	0xdba6c2…
10-28 23:22:43	Will the Nebraska Republican perform worst among these tossup Senate races?	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x67ddda…
10-28 23:22:43	Will the Iowa Republican perform worst among these tossup Senate races?	Yes	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x1dfc2a…
10-28 21:00:52	Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	0	29¢	$0	0xe88dc6…
10-28 21:00:52	Will Democrats win 6 or more House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0xdfeca5…
10-28 21:00:52	Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	0	15¢	$0	0xb4f6a0…
10-28 21:00:52	Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x0cf468…
10-28 21:00:50	Will Democrats win 6 or more House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	102	31¢	$32	0xeb78ae…
10-28 21:00:50	Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	102	43¢	$44	0xea1f7b…
10-28 21:00:50	Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	102	6¢	$6	0xe70fdb…
10-28 21:00:50	Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	102	2¢	$2	0xe29187…
10-28 21:00:50	Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	102	16¢	$16	0x77567f…
10-28 18:12:26	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	3	4¢	$0	0xa714cd…
10-28 18:12:26	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0x12cb62…
10-28 18:12:23	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	98	2¢	$2	0xd243c5…
10-28 18:12:23	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x8d15e9…
10-28 18:12:23	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	101	4¢	$4	0x7e9b52…
10-28 08:41:56	Will the Democrats win Maricopa County in the Arizona governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	62	4¢	$2	0xeeaeea…
10-28 08:41:53	Will the Democrats win Maricopa County in the Arizona governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	41	7¢	$3	0x2dc34d…
10-28 08:41:52	Will the Democrats win Maricopa County in the Arizona governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	103	8¢	$8	0x58edb9…
10-28 04:46:32	Will Troy Jackson run 9 or more points behind Hannah Pingree?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xcd7a91…
10-28 04:46:32	Will Troy Jackson run 0 to 3 points behind Hannah Pingree?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xa2ceec…
10-28 04:46:32	Will Troy Jackson run 3 to 6 points behind Hannah Pingree?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x9f3f58…
10-28 04:46:32	Will Troy Jackson run ahead of Hannah Pingree?	Yes	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x973188…
10-28 04:46:32	Will Troy Jackson run 6 to 9 points behind Hannah Pingree?	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0x1928f1…
10-28 04:26:08	ven1 cfc dlg 2026 10 28 dlg	No	BUY	26	81¢	$21	0xd53410…
10-28 04:26:08	ven1 cfc dlg 2026 10 28 draw	No	BUY	26	73¢	$19	0x250a42…
10-28 04:26:08	ven1 cfc dlg 2026 10 28 cfc	No	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x09cfe0…
10-28 00:52:42	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	15	41¢	$6	0x7d203e…
10-28 00:52:41	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0x07095b…
10-27 19:56:21	Will Democrats win fewer than 7 of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	19	8¢	$2	0xe3a1db…
10-27 19:56:21	Will Democrats win 7 or 8 of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	19	22¢	$4	0x9b3db7…
10-27 19:56:21	Will Democrats win 9 or more of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	19	69¢	$13	0x82b031…
10-27 19:13:50	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0xc53eda…
10-27 19:13:50	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x968ab3…
10-27 17:10:18	Will Kyle Barrett win the next Launceston mayoral election?	No	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0xc5eb85…
10-27 17:10:18	Will Matthew Garwood win the next Launceston mayoral election?	No	BUY	37	12¢	$4	0x04e3b4…
10-27 16:13:33	Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?	Yes	SELL	2	19¢	$0	0x34181c…
10-27 16:13:30	Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?	Yes	SELL	49	20¢	$10	0x225957…
10-27 16:13:29	Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	51	20¢	$10	0x32a4ab…
10-27 01:29:35	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0xbc8a51…
10-27 01:29:33	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	BUY	51	90¢	$46	0xc52f88…
10-27 01:29:33	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	BUY	51	8¢	$4	0x5994e0…
10-27 00:00:53	Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	No	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x4c6f11…
10-27 00:00:51	Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x9ef950…
10-27 00:00:51	Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	No	BUY	17	8¢	$1	0x8b36c1…
10-26 23:05:53	Will AD Sporting Hortaleza vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	26	89¢	$23	0xf81b91…
10-26 23:05:53	Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-10-29?	No	BUY	26	25¢	$6	0x253de7…
10-26 23:05:53	Will AD Sporting Hortaleza win on 2026-10-29?	No	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x065b0d…
10-26 21:26:26	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 27?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xce0e1e…
10-26 21:26:23	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 27?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xd37699…
10-26 00:33:23	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on October 27?	No	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xc50c45…
10-26 00:33:23	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on October 27?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xabbf59…
10-26 00:33:23	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on October 27?	No	BUY	3	84¢	$3	0x71a51c…
10-25 20:10:39	Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0xf9ed2b…
10-25 20:10:38	Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	No	BUY	47	78¢	$37	0x809ee9…
10-25 20:10:38	Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x592627…
10-25 20:10:38	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x442ff2…
10-25 20:10:38	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	No	BUY	47	20¢	$9	0x152aa5…
10-25 20:09:20	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0xf8ca03…
10-25 20:09:20	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0xd71e04…
10-25 17:31:17	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	51	40¢	$20	0xf7f92a…
10-25 17:31:17	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	51	57¢	$29	0xbaf3c2…
10-25 17:31:17	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	0	59¢	$0	0x1044e1…
10-25 16:57:50	Will the US national average gas price be less than $4.2700 on October 26?	No	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0xba5520…
10-25 16:57:48	Will the US national average gas price be less than $4.2700 on October 26?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xbf535a…
10-25 16:57:48	Will the US national average gas price be between $4.2800 and $4.2899 on October 26?	No	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x0c8d62…
10-25 15:49:54	Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	No	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x46b8c8…