Identical-Island — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$893

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

56.9%

Resolved

190

Trades

346

lifetime

Volume

$19.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$56

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-30

last 08-05 12:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 57 days

Categories

Other

40% 21% +$732

Politics

37% 56% -$118

Crypto

23% 59% +$279

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-05).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?	3	$2.4K	1,205	1,205	+0	No	-$1	02-04 00:43
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	23	$2.2K	1,400	1,400	+0	No	-$159	05-15 13:29
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	5	$2.2K	1,120	1,120	+0	No	+$5	03-21 14:50
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$0	03-04 07:53
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	3	$1.0K	656	356	+300	No	+$4	03-15 05:40
trump out as president by march 31	1	$985	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$15	03-06 04:05
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	2	$703	365	365	+0	No	+$3	03-15 04:30
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	6	$542	300	300	+0	Yes	+$56	06-27 14:38
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	4	$493	251	251	+0	No	-$7	02-06 13:38
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao?	2	$373	360	360	+0	Yes	+$343	06-21 01:55
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$362	200	200	+0	Yes	+$38	06-18 04:53
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	3	$354	200	200	+0	Yes	+$14	07-30 12:32
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	5	$291	163	163	+0	Yes	+$16	02-27 04:01
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$288	300	0	+300	No	+$12	03-18 04:47
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	4	$286	239	100	+139	No	+$4	03-23 11:52
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	5	$280	200	200	+0	Yes	+$8	06-22 14:36
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 04:30 UTC	3	$208	108	104	+4	Down	$0	03-09 04:36
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?	2	$207	123	123	+0	Yes	+$5	04-29 09:18
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 06:20 UTC	2	$206	107	107	+0	Down	+$6	03-09 06:25
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 07:40 UTC	2	$203	103	103	+0	Up	+$1	03-09 07:45
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 06:35 UTC	2	$202	102	102	+0	Down	+$0	03-09 06:39
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	2	$199	100	100	+0	No	+$0	03-09 10:32
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands?	2	$197	210	210	+0	Yes	+$168	06-26 00:51
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$189	200	0	+200	Yes	+$11	05-19 14:37
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$146	200	200	+0	Yes	+$10	06-22 12:22
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	4	$143	100	100	+0	Yes	+$55	05-05 04:08
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?	3	$139	100	100	+0	Yes	+$59	06-18 05:35
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 07:50 UTC	2	$131	83	81	+1	Down	+$32	03-06 07:54
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama?	4	$130	130	100	+30	No	+$34	06-18 00:50
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 07:15 UTC	2	$117	84	82	+1	Up	+$19	03-06 07:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-05 12:36:42	squid fdv above 75m one day after launch 994	Yes	SELL	55	99¢	$54	0x38eef8…
08-04 10:09:00	squid fdv above 75m one day after launch 994	Yes	BUY	55	66¢	$36	0xcdb19b…
08-04 10:08:47	squid fdv above 50m one day after launch 893	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x5f5b31…
07-30 12:32:41	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	170	92¢	$156	0xcc4ec3…
07-30 12:31:23	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	92¢	$28	0x93c659…
07-16 06:07:58	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	850	2¢	$18	0xbc719c…
07-16 06:07:32	Exact Score: France 2 - 1 England?	Yes	BUY	160	11¢	$18	0x08c0a5…
07-14 07:17:25	Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	180	8¢	$14	0xa4a2b9…
07-13 06:40:17	Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Spain?	Yes	BUY	180	8¢	$14	0x763e7d…
07-08 11:22:10	Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0xc8e954…
07-08 11:20:52	Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 England?	Yes	BUY	145	10¢	$14	0x5bf1a2…
07-08 11:19:38	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Belgium?	Yes	BUY	290	5¢	$14	0x7dc5b4…
07-08 11:18:35	Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	360	4¢	$15	0xe88f11…
07-06 08:35:20	Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Colombia?	Yes	BUY	110	13¢	$14	0x0d6587…
07-06 08:34:37	Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	BUY	210	7¢	$15	0x396d99…
07-06 08:33:58	Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Belgium?	Yes	BUY	160	9¢	$14	0x9516a2…
07-06 08:33:05	Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Spain?	Yes	BUY	210	7¢	$15	0x3258ae…
07-05 12:31:41	Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 England?	Yes	BUY	90	16¢	$14	0x8e5b81…
07-05 12:31:08	Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Norway?	Yes	BUY	120	12¢	$14	0xa70a92…
07-02 15:18:49	Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x71ce3b…
07-02 15:16:19	Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Ghana?	Yes	BUY	250	6¢	$15	0x961f55…
07-02 15:15:17	Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Egypt?	Yes	BUY	120	12¢	$14	0xe9382a…
07-02 02:14:17	Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Algeria?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x16f4c1…
07-02 02:13:23	Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Croatia?	Yes	BUY	450	3¢	$15	0xe0de81…
07-02 02:12:19	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Austria?	Yes	BUY	150	10¢	$15	0x111335…
07-02 01:57:13	Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?	Yes	SELL	110	70¢	$77	0x7a5ff0…
07-01 14:53:44	Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?	Yes	BUY	110	13¢	$14	0x4101c8…
07-01 14:53:19	Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Senegal?	Yes	BUY	210	7¢	$15	0x125eb3…
07-01 14:52:10	Exact Score: England 2 - 1 DR Congo?	Yes	BUY	150	10¢	$15	0x9cc170…
06-30 14:13:53	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x857860…
06-29 11:47:04	Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	120	12¢	$14	0xe69380…
06-29 11:46:23	Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay?	Yes	BUY	500	3¢	$15	0x341dc0…
06-29 11:45:43	Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan?	Yes	BUY	500	3¢	$15	0x2327f6…
06-27 14:38:49	Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5438e9…
06-27 14:31:02	Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	299	100¢	$298	0xa6f08e…
06-27 13:55:01	cap fdv above 300m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	65	46¢	$30	0x98f32f…
06-27 12:57:58	Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xd12bc1…
06-27 12:57:05	Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 0 Austria?	Yes	BUY	390	4¢	$15	0xb34638…
06-27 12:53:55	Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Yes	BUY	180	8¢	$14	0xa1755f…
06-27 12:53:05	Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal?	Yes	BUY	160	9¢	$14	0x30edc0…
06-27 12:52:26	Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana?	Yes	BUY	150	10¢	$15	0xc3a6fe…
06-27 12:51:14	Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 England?	Yes	BUY	180	8¢	$14	0xbcb758…
06-27 03:30:35	cap fdv above 300m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	35	34¢	$12	0x47562f…
06-26 12:06:49	cap fdv above 300m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x9fadf2…
06-26 07:34:13	Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran?	Yes	BUY	90	16¢	$14	0x732492…
06-26 07:30:40	fifwc ury esp 2026 06 26 spread away 3pt5	Spain	BUY	250	6¢	$15	0x63fd01…
06-26 00:51:31	Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands?	Yes	SELL	210	87¢	$183	0x4207a5…
06-25 14:14:37	Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States?	Yes	BUY	160	9¢	$14	0x775ed7…
06-25 14:14:08	Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia?	Yes	BUY	80	18¢	$14	0xf57c07…
06-25 14:13:35	Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden?	Yes	BUY	130	11¢	$14	0xdb15f1…
06-25 14:12:58	Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands?	Yes	BUY	210	7¢	$15	0xf1be97…
06-25 14:12:19	Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany?	Yes	BUY	150	10¢	$15	0x1fee4f…
06-25 14:11:31	Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Yes	BUY	390	4¢	$15	0xb05fb0…
06-24 16:59:59	Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	98	80¢	$78	0x8c804c…
06-24 16:58:16	Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x0e2369…
06-24 16:58:14	Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x595cc1…
06-24 16:45:35	Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x024de2…
06-24 05:33:43	Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 Mexico?	Yes	BUY	160	9¢	$14	0xaf4a5a…
06-24 05:32:28	Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic?	Yes	BUY	130	11¢	$14	0xa30dde…
06-24 05:31:11	Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil?	Yes	BUY	150	10¢	$15	0xdb66cc…
06-24 05:30:23	Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 0 Haiti?	Yes	BUY	130	11¢	$14	0x079376…
06-24 05:29:01	Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar?	Yes	BUY	300	5¢	$15	0xd53e2d…
06-24 05:28:01	Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada?	Yes	BUY	130	11¢	$14	0xbb80e1…
06-24 03:49:58	Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	SELL	105	19¢	$20	0x067dc7…
06-23 07:48:46	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 spread home 3pt5	England	BUY	2	19¢	$0	0xd83046…
06-23 06:38:08	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 spread home 3pt5	England	BUY	17	19¢	$3	0xe2c29a…
06-23 06:14:01	Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	BUY	105	14¢	$15	0x75b3e0…
06-23 06:13:10	Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia?	Yes	BUY	130	11¢	$14	0xbd5275…
06-23 06:12:25	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 spread home 3pt5	England	BUY	60	19¢	$11	0xe3bf0b…
06-23 06:11:19	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 4pt5	Portugal	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xb7bf3c…
06-23 06:11:19	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 4pt5	Portugal	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x07243c…
06-23 06:11:17	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 4pt5	Portugal	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xffb92f…
06-23 06:11:17	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 4pt5	Portugal	BUY	102	11¢	$11	0x9c3481…
06-23 06:11:17	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 4pt5	Portugal	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x98a23d…
06-22 15:21:22	Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria?	Yes	BUY	180	8¢	$14	0x2bb5c5…
06-22 15:19:44	Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal?	Yes	BUY	130	11¢	$14	0x8326cc…
06-22 15:06:52	Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq?	Yes	BUY	110	13¢	$14	0xf89650…
06-22 15:06:17	Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x8a7259…
06-22 14:36:55	Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	90	72¢	$65	0xab46ec…
06-22 14:36:04	Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	42	72¢	$30	0x92b5b0…
06-22 14:31:25	Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	68	72¢	$49	0x9fbc7f…
06-22 12:22:55	Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	200	39¢	$78	0x55be2a…
06-22 08:04:41	Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0x2e7b3b…
06-22 07:47:49	Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0x9dc0d9…
06-22 07:46:31	Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	198	68¢	$135	0x12dc84…
06-21 15:10:50	Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x0f600a…
06-21 15:10:43	Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xb6f8a7…
06-21 15:10:32	Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xb1504f…
06-21 15:10:22	Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x87bf23…
06-21 15:10:14	Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x83b611…
06-21 15:10:04	Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xf3516d…
06-21 15:09:56	Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0x7b649a…
06-21 15:09:47	Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	BUY	319	2¢	$5	0x925f68…
06-21 15:09:46	Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x60cf25…
06-21 15:07:52	Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Yes	BUY	135	11¢	$15	0x7d7129…
06-21 15:06:50	Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran?	Yes	BUY	410	4¢	$15	0xc81667…
06-21 15:05:26	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Yes	BUY	88	17¢	$15	0xc7a6b7…
06-21 01:55:19	Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao?	Yes	SELL	360	99¢	$358	0x66206e…
06-20 12:41:14	Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan?	Yes	BUY	90	16¢	$14	0x71ca58…
06-20 12:40:37	Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao?	Yes	BUY	360	4¢	$15	0x5df053…