Identical-Island — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$58

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

247

lifetime

Volume

$17.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$70

Open exposure

$174

1 position

First seen

2026-01-30

last 06-30 14:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

42% — —

Other

34% 100% +$3

Crypto

24% 100% +$55

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes		+200	$170	87¢	$174	+$4	06-30 14:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?	3	$2.4K	1,205	1,205	+0	open	—	02-04 00:43
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	23	$2.2K	1,400	1,400	+0	open	—	05-15 13:29
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	5	$2.2K	1,120	1,120	+0	open	—	03-21 14:50
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-04 07:53
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	3	$1.0K	656	356	+300	open	—	03-15 05:40
trump out as president by march 31	1	$985	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	03-06 04:05
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	2	$703	365	365	+0	No	+$3	03-15 04:30
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	6	$542	300	300	+0	open	—	06-27 14:38
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	4	$493	251	251	+0	open	—	02-06 13:38
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$362	200	200	+0	open	—	06-18 04:53
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	5	$291	163	163	+0	open	—	02-27 04:01
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$288	300	0	+300	open	—	03-18 04:47
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	4	$286	239	100	+139	open	—	03-23 11:52
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	5	$280	200	200	+0	open	—	06-22 14:36
sol updown 5m 1773030600	3	$208	108	104	+4	open	—	03-09 04:36
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?	2	$207	123	123	+0	open	—	04-29 09:18
sol updown 5m 1773037200	2	$206	107	107	+0	open	—	03-09 06:25
sol updown 5m 1773042000	2	$203	103	103	+0	open	—	03-09 07:45
sol updown 5m 1773038100	2	$202	102	102	+0	open	—	03-09 06:39
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	2	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	03-09 10:32
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$189	200	0	+200	open	—	05-19 14:37
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$170	200	0	+200	open	—	06-30 14:13
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$146	200	200	+0	open	—	06-22 12:22
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	4	$143	100	100	+0	Yes	+$55	05-05 04:08
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?	3	$139	100	100	+0	open	—	06-18 05:35
sol updown 5m 1772783400	2	$131	83	81	+1	open	—	03-06 07:54
sol updown 5m 1772781300	2	$117	84	82	+1	open	—	03-06 07:17
will trump visit china by march 31	4	$115	269	269	+0	open	—	03-17 08:26
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	1	$100	102	0	+102	open	—	03-06 03:41
Nexus FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$98	100	0	+100	open	—	05-20 13:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 14:13:53	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x857860…
06-27 14:38:49	Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5438e9…
06-27 14:31:02	Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	299	100¢	$298	0xa6f08e…
06-27 13:55:01	cap fdv above 300m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	65	46¢	$30	0x98f32f…
06-27 03:30:35	cap fdv above 300m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	35	34¢	$12	0x47562f…
06-26 12:06:49	cap fdv above 300m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x9fadf2…
06-26 07:30:40	fifwc ury esp 2026 06 26 spread away 3pt5	Spain	BUY	250	6¢	$15	0x63fd01…
06-24 16:59:59	Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	98	80¢	$78	0x8c804c…
06-24 16:58:16	Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x0e2369…
06-24 16:58:14	Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x595cc1…
06-24 16:45:35	Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x024de2…
06-23 07:48:46	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 spread home 3pt5	England	BUY	2	19¢	$0	0xd83046…
06-23 06:38:08	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 spread home 3pt5	England	BUY	17	19¢	$3	0xe2c29a…
06-23 06:12:25	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 spread home 3pt5	England	BUY	60	19¢	$11	0xe3bf0b…
06-23 06:11:19	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 4pt5	Portugal	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xb7bf3c…
06-23 06:11:19	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 4pt5	Portugal	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x07243c…
06-23 06:11:17	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 4pt5	Portugal	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xffb92f…
06-23 06:11:17	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 4pt5	Portugal	BUY	102	11¢	$11	0x9c3481…
06-23 06:11:17	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 4pt5	Portugal	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x98a23d…
06-22 14:36:55	Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	90	72¢	$65	0xab46ec…
06-22 14:36:04	Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	42	72¢	$30	0x92b5b0…
06-22 14:31:25	Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	68	72¢	$49	0x9fbc7f…
06-22 12:22:55	Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	200	39¢	$78	0x55be2a…
06-22 08:04:41	Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0x2e7b3b…
06-22 07:47:49	Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0x9dc0d9…
06-22 07:46:31	Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	198	68¢	$135	0x12dc84…
06-18 05:35:50	o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x340488…
06-18 05:23:13	o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	95	99¢	$94	0x0d4bc2…
06-18 04:53:28	o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x833e9a…
06-15 13:14:18	o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0xf2c157…
05-29 18:01:22	o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0x319e56…
05-25 12:55:04	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	35¢	$35	0x945e43…
05-23 18:23:54	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	68	33¢	$22	0xed274c…
05-23 17:26:40	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	27	33¢	$9	0xaa0332…
05-23 13:50:48	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x2afcd9…
05-20 13:11:04	Nexus FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xd3a201…
05-19 14:37:12	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$189	0xe43164…
05-15 13:29:07	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	462	70¢	$324	0x21a1bc…
05-15 13:28:53	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	12	70¢	$8	0xa3f6e8…
05-15 13:28:27	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	42	70¢	$29	0x5f5725…
05-15 13:09:35	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	813	76¢	$619	0x774226…
05-15 13:06:13	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	71	76¢	$54	0xe8f524…
05-15 09:29:13	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	156	80¢	$124	0xc5ff8c…
05-15 09:07:28	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	64	82¢	$52	0xc05de7…
05-15 09:07:16	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	36	82¢	$30	0xeb7373…
05-15 09:05:24	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	44	80¢	$36	0x440d21…
05-15 09:02:51	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x12b90a…
05-15 08:52:41	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	115	85¢	$98	0x093c80…
05-15 08:52:39	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	85	85¢	$72	0x961565…
05-15 08:48:22	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	89	86¢	$77	0x98bcb0…
05-15 08:48:18	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	11	86¢	$9	0x337a6c…
05-15 08:45:02	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	74	87¢	$64	0x458a5d…
05-15 08:45:02	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x4298b3…
05-15 08:44:53	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	56	87¢	$49	0xc6c00e…
05-15 08:44:48	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	60	87¢	$52	0xfbe4d3…
05-15 08:37:39	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x55e65a…
05-15 08:33:50	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x4dc639…
05-15 08:30:55	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x67f4a9…
05-15 08:17:21	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xee6ea7…
05-15 08:01:03	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x1f64b3…
05-05 04:08:30	Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x0ca0fa…
05-05 04:07:18	Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	91	99¢	$90	0x3f2514…
05-03 08:11:20	Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	68	44¢	$30	0xbc1765…
05-03 07:59:02	Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	32	44¢	$14	0x22c310…
04-29 09:18:26	Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	123	86¢	$106	0xdfd71e…
04-29 07:57:38	Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	123	82¢	$101	0xb6f3a1…
03-23 11:52:53	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	139	84¢	$117	0xd757c0…
03-23 11:24:17	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0x8b1bce…
03-21 22:27:21	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x963348…
03-21 14:56:19	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	60	93¢	$56	0x1fb8bd…
03-21 14:50:23	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	SELL	120	100¢	$120	0x610f18…
03-18 06:11:45	btc updown 5m 1773813900	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$1	0xf49192…
03-18 06:09:21	btc updown 5m 1773813900	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xee81ce…
03-18 05:11:05	btc updown 5m 1773810600	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xf81449…
03-18 05:05:15	btc updown 5m 1773810000	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x24d437…
03-18 05:04:17	btc updown 5m 1773810000	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x28f2b3…
03-18 04:47:35	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	300	96¢	$288	0xdb7cab…
03-18 04:28:27	btc updown 5m 1773807900	Up	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0xf0a9ba…
03-18 04:27:27	btc updown 5m 1773807900	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xb929b5…
03-18 04:16:59	btc updown 5m 1773807300	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x2e8ce1…
03-18 04:14:31	btc updown 5m 1773807000	Down	SELL	6	9¢	$0	0x801259…
03-18 04:13:59	btc updown 5m 1773807000	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x118157…
03-18 04:08:01	btc updown 5m 1773806700	Up	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x42b605…
03-18 04:06:23	btc updown 5m 1773806700	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xf1aaac…
03-18 04:03:41	btc updown 5m 1773806400	Down	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x0df0fe…
03-18 04:01:57	btc updown 5m 1773806400	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xef3156…
03-18 03:41:05	btc updown 5m 1773804900	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x0f359b…
03-18 03:37:07	btc updown 5m 1773804900	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xc1e566…
03-18 03:22:37	btc updown 5m 1773804000	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xc46942…
03-18 02:47:53	btc updown 5m 1773801900	Down	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x22a010…
03-18 02:46:15	btc updown 5m 1773801900	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x800eff…
03-18 02:44:51	btc updown 5m 1773801600	Up	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x417e28…
03-18 02:44:11	btc updown 5m 1773801600	Up	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xd47713…
03-18 02:39:37	btc updown 5m 1773801300	Up	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x828669…
03-18 02:36:47	btc updown 5m 1773801300	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x8c80eb…
03-17 09:34:13	btc updown 5m 1773739800	Down	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xd242ba…
03-17 09:33:41	btc updown 5m 1773739800	Down	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xd5242a…
03-17 08:26:03	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	SELL	169	4¢	$7	0x781311…
03-17 08:00:59	btc updown 5m 1773734400	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xdf28ad…
03-17 07:30:25	btc updown 5m 1773732300	Down	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xd4298a…