Expensive-Covariate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

61.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$91

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-28

last 06-11 21:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

53% 0% $-5

Other

47% 50% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		-62	$-3	4¢	$-2	+$1	06-11 21:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce	2	$22	15	15	+0	Zalgiris Kaunas	+$8	05-06 19:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	2	$9	6	6	+0	open	—	04-28 10:01
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce	1	$9	20	0	+20	Fenerbahce	$-9	05-08 17:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	2	$8	15	0	+15	open	—	05-01 23:42
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	04-28 07:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	04-28 19:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	04-28 18:45
Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas	2	$4	17	0	+17	open	—	04-28 19:05
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$3	0	62	-62	open	—	06-11 21:00
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	1	$3	8	0	+8	open	—	04-28 18:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	1	$3	6	0	+6	open	—	04-28 13:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	1	$3	7	0	+7	Up	$-3	05-06 17:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	1	$2	9	0	+9	Down	$-2	05-06 17:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	1	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	04-29 05:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	1	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	04-29 17:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	1	$2	7	0	+7	open	—	04-30 08:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	1	$2	415	0	+415	open	—	04-29 15:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	1	$1	20	0	+20	open	—	04-29 05:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	04-28 18:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 21:00:52	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	5¢	$3	0x11c2aa…
05-08 17:28:57	Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce	Zalgiris Kaunas	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xef5ab7…
05-06 19:18:26	Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce	Zalgiris Kaunas	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x865137…
05-06 17:30:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x3837a8…
05-06 17:29:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0xc46eb9…
05-06 17:12:45	Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce	Zalgiris Kaunas	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0x5728b1…
05-01 23:42:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc7d593…
05-01 23:41:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x0ae368…
04-30 08:51:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xfae95c…
04-29 17:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x9d6a49…
04-29 15:26:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	415	0¢	$2	0xb54b0a…
04-29 05:23:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x607776…
04-29 05:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x228ba3…
04-28 19:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x6e0634…
04-28 19:05:12	Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas	Zalgiris Kaunas	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x5b4d55…
04-28 18:45:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x86b28f…
04-28 18:13:16	Dogecoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x35001d…
04-28 18:07:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xc85fdb…
04-28 13:51:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x9db7c6…
04-28 13:48:58	Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas	Zalgiris Kaunas	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xda3a89…
04-28 10:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xd03da2…
04-28 09:54:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x35cbee…
04-28 07:50:06	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x265c16…