Elderly-Sleuth — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8.28K

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

41.0%

Resolved

1,689

Trades

7,002

lifetime

Volume

$57.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$50

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-02

last 08-26 00:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 111 days

Categories

Crypto

86% 49% -$7,222

Other

9% 30% -$851

Politics

4% 35% -$51

Tech

1% 0% -$126

Sports

0% 55% -$22

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No		+50	$33	100¢	$50	+$17	08-03 18:04
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes		+50	$18	0¢	$0	-$18	08-03 18:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 20:15 UTC	701	$6.8K	9,431	7,972	+1,459	Down	-$1,131	02-08 20:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 04:30 UTC	314	$2.1K	4,288	0	+4,288	Up	+$24	02-08 04:42
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 20:15 UTC	172	$1.5K	2,451	1,136	+1,315	Down	-$728	02-08 20:20
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 03:00 UTC	188	$1.5K	2,965	270	+2,695	Up	-$276	02-10 03:10
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 01:30 UTC	179	$1.3K	2,536	0	+2,536	Down	-$15	02-10 01:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 04:15 UTC	2	$1.3K	1,306	0	+1,306	Down	+$41	02-15 04:19
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 01:45 UTC	113	$1.3K	2,709	0	+2,709	Down	-$272	02-10 01:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 15:35 UTC	3	$965	1,001	0	+1,001	Up	+$37	02-15 15:39
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 04:15 UTC	114	$896	1,817	0	+1,817	Down	+$62	02-10 04:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 16:20 UTC	4	$823	860	0	+860	Down	+$37	02-15 16:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-15 16:30 UTC	5	$803	839	0	+839	Down	+$36	02-15 16:44
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-16 06:45 UTC	33	$757	6,521	0	+6,521	Up	-$757	02-16 07:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-16 06:00 UTC	31	$721	6,797	0	+6,797	Down	-$721	02-16 06:15
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 04:30 UTC	70	$647	1,471	0	+1,471	Down	-$186	02-10 04:40
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	5	$626	85,974	0	+85,974	No	-$626	06-04 00:07
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 01:00 UTC	148	$517	1,060	0	+1,060	Up	-$15	02-19 01:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 04:20 UTC	3	$507	522	0	+522	Down	+$16	02-15 04:24
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 01:30 UTC	130	$492	924	0	+924	Up	-$26	02-19 01:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 17:15 UTC	2	$490	510	0	+510	Down	+$20	02-15 17:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 04:30 UTC	115	$474	1,090	0	+1,090	Down	-$103	02-10 04:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 00:10 UTC	3	$466	477	0	+477	Down	+$10	02-15 00:14
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?	7	$464	436	293	+143	No	-$26	08-03 15:58
Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?	2	$460	450	450	+0	open	—	08-04 00:10
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 04:30 UTC	59	$404	935	0	+935	Down	-$153	02-10 04:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 01:45 UTC	1	$398	410	0	+410	Up	+$12	02-15 01:49
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 17:45 UTC	4	$394	443	0	+443	Down	-$394	08-12 17:59
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 02:45 UTC	41	$384	712	0	+712	Up	-$115	02-10 02:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 01:45 UTC	1	$339	362	0	+362	Down	+$23	08-12 02:00
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-15 04:15 UTC	2	$337	347	0	+347	Down	+$10	02-15 04:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 07:45 UTC	42	$336	679	0	+679	Up	+$1	02-08 07:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-26 00:05:03	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	861	18¢	$158	0x605470…
08-25 21:44:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-25 21:40 UTC	Down	BUY	53	76¢	$40	0xf5510e…
08-25 20:14:55	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-25 20:10 UTC	Down	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0x7e3555…
08-25 19:24:57	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-25 19:20 UTC	Down	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x8f1afe…
08-25 19:09:18	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-25 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	106	79¢	$84	0x755d1c…
08-12 18:14:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0xe32a95…
08-12 18:09:51	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-12 18:05 UTC	Up	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x2abfe8…
08-12 17:59:58	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc5c9fa…
08-12 17:59:52	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x9bac54…
08-12 17:59:52	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	32	89¢	$28	0x380fa5…
08-12 17:59:34	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	404	89¢	$359	0xf459a7…
08-12 06:04:43	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-12 06:00 UTC	Up	BUY	154	89¢	$137	0xd2a8c9…
08-12 05:29:46	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-12 05:25 UTC	Up	BUY	18	88¢	$16	0x81ffed…
08-12 03:59:57	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-12 03:55 UTC	Down	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x55fbef…
08-12 02:44:43	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 02:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x02f33a…
08-12 02:00:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 01:45 UTC	Down	BUY	362	94¢	$339	0xfb43ab…
08-12 00:45:03	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-12 00:40 UTC	Down	BUY	224	93¢	$208	0xd8c11f…
08-12 00:14:36	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	68	96¢	$65	0x181516…
08-11 23:54:37	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 23:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x41450b…
08-06 20:01:38	will casemiro attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630260	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x6df897…
08-06 20:01:23	will russia capture vodianske by september 30 20260724162613571	Yes	SELL	30	21¢	$6	0x6c6e0f…
08-06 20:01:03	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0x0a9b21…
08-06 19:54:30	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in August?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0xc21dd9…
08-06 19:53:27	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in August?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xb9dd7f…
08-06 19:44:51	will russia capture vodianske by september 30 20260724162613571	Yes	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0xcc10ed…
08-06 19:39:23	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x9aa7cb…
08-06 19:38:05	will casemiro attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630260	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xc56fd1…
08-05 16:33:17	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	Yes	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0xde4886…
08-05 16:30:45	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by august 31	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0x3d0916…
08-05 16:30:30	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by august 31	Yes	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0xbab948…
08-05 16:03:18	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	Yes	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xe7c354…
08-05 16:03:18	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	SELL	21	27¢	$6	0xe7c354…
08-05 15:48:02	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	BUY	21	26¢	$5	0x8e9d88…
08-05 06:58:06	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	No	SELL	51	77¢	$39	0x93dc21…
08-05 06:17:32	Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	63	71¢	$45	0x1b92aa…
08-05 06:16:45	Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	41	76¢	$31	0x6d309b…
08-05 06:16:36	Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0xf35b34…
08-05 06:13:24	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	No	BUY	51	78¢	$39	0xa75aad…
08-05 03:12:32	beezie fdv above 200m one day after launch 20260804180933887	No	SELL	42	65¢	$27	0x0314e7…
08-05 02:59:24	beezie fdv above 50m one day after launch 20260804180933884	No	SELL	36	26¢	$9	0x0c9521…
08-05 02:59:18	Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	No	SELL	41	16¢	$7	0x11fcec…
08-05 02:59:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	204	18¢	$37	0x00f883…
08-05 02:49:56	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	202	81¢	$164	0xee3e6c…
08-05 02:21:23	beezie fdv above 200m one day after launch 20260804180933887	No	BUY	42	69¢	$29	0xb7e13f…
08-05 02:20:26	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	202	82¢	$166	0xa2f978…
08-05 02:15:24	beezie fdv above 50m one day after launch 20260804180933884	No	BUY	36	29¢	$10	0x10eb1d…
08-05 02:11:41	Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	No	BUY	41	20¢	$8	0xbbcb26…
08-05 02:04:29	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	204	22¢	$45	0xdb5efa…
08-05 01:39:35	will karim benzema attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630270	No	SELL	40	79¢	$32	0x0e1bea…
08-05 00:51:27	will karim benzema attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630270	No	BUY	40	83¢	$34	0xe4216c…
08-04 05:35:15	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	1	59¢	$1	0x7cf7a8…
08-04 05:35:12	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	52	60¢	$31	0x557666…
08-04 05:35:12	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	51	42¢	$21	0x112b45…
08-04 05:34:06	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	1	51¢	$1	0x1ba5d8…
08-04 05:34:03	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	51	56¢	$29	0x22f07d…
08-04 05:34:03	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0x1227d8…
08-04 05:33:00	Will Letitia Plummer win the 2026 Harris County Judge election?	No	SELL	71	9¢	$6	0x99db7d…
08-04 05:32:57	Will Letitia Plummer win the 2026 Harris County Judge election?	No	BUY	141	30¢	$42	0xf28f17…
08-04 05:32:57	Will Letitia Plummer win the 2026 Harris County Judge election?	Yes	BUY	70	72¢	$50	0xdc55e2…
08-04 05:28:17	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0xb41edf…
08-04 05:28:14	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	51	25¢	$13	0x5b9e93…
08-04 05:28:14	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	51	76¢	$39	0x1d3e66…
08-04 05:00:35	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x97fe11…
08-04 05:00:35	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x61c48c…
08-04 00:10:32	Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?	Yes	SELL	450	40¢	$181	0xf3a265…
08-04 00:10:30	Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?	Yes	BUY	450	62¢	$279	0xf6dde4…
08-03 22:50:45	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	21	25¢	$5	0xcfc2b7…
08-03 22:50:44	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	21	50¢	$10	0x529da1…
08-03 22:15:50	Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0x97ab26…
08-03 22:15:47	Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xaf7ba1…
08-03 22:15:47	Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x358311…
08-03 22:06:09	Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?	No	BUY	51	52¢	$27	0xc1194c…
08-03 22:06:08	Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x638a84…
08-03 18:50:51	Will "Pluribus" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xd4653e…
08-03 18:50:51	Will "Pluribus" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0x740698…
08-03 18:50:50	Will "Pluribus" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x3a66d3…
08-03 18:26:41	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x5f935b…
08-03 18:25:59	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xca754d…
08-03 18:05:20	Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x2aa607…
08-03 18:05:18	Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xe54319…
08-03 18:04:38	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	0	65¢	$0	0x7ed694…
08-03 18:04:36	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x7278c1…
08-03 18:04:36	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	BUY	51	66¢	$33	0x2ea37d…
08-03 15:58:45	Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?	Yes	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0x6f3773…
08-03 15:53:50	Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?	Yes	BUY	75	39¢	$29	0xf76874…
08-03 15:53:50	Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?	No	BUY	72	62¢	$44	0x3f4828…
08-03 05:23:20	Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	No	SELL	22	22¢	$5	0x84ebb7…
08-03 05:23:18	Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	No	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0xf23da8…
08-03 05:23:18	Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	78¢	$55	0x4ba34f…
08-03 05:23:18	Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	No	BUY	72	93¢	$67	0x05c34d…
08-03 01:41:39	Will "Widow's Bay" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?	No	SELL	184	59¢	$108	0x91afbf…
08-03 01:41:36	Will "Widow's Bay" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?	No	BUY	184	60¢	$110	0xbce5b5…
08-03 01:14:03	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	SELL	114	50¢	$57	0x043d1e…
08-03 01:14:00	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	114	51¢	$58	0x40148f…
08-03 00:50:15	Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?	No	SELL	165	60¢	$98	0x2b94ef…
08-03 00:50:12	Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?	No	BUY	165	71¢	$117	0xa80f25…
08-03 00:17:03	Will "Widow's Bay" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	SELL	40	50¢	$20	0x32f41e…
08-03 00:17:02	Will "Widow's Bay" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	BUY	40	51¢	$21	0x91ccf3…
08-02 23:45:21	Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x820eb8…
08-02 23:44:11	Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xc04d60…