Extra-Small-Outrage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.2%

Resolved

284

Trades

284

lifetime

Volume

$3.22K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-29 08:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 222 days

Categories

Other

95% 100% +$5

Politics

5% 89% -$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 14?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	05-14 14:35
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$25	26	+26	No	-$25	05-15 04:53
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 2?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-02 13:27
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$24	25	+25	Yes	+$1	05-03 03:30
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-30 08:46
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-29 13:40
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on April 28?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-28 10:41
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 27?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-28 01:31
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 27?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-27 10:26
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 26?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-27 01:28
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 26?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-26 09:05
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on April 25?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-25 12:03
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-24 08:59
highest temperature in jakarta on april 24 2026 28corbelow	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-23 22:46
highest temperature in tokyo on april 23 2026 20c	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-23 06:42
highest temperature in manila on april 22 2026 35c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-22 10:11
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	1	$23	24	+24	No	+$1	04-21 04:20
highest temperature in lucknow on april 20 2026 42c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-20 16:38
highest temperature in wellington on april 20 2026 17c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-20 03:40
highest temperature in karachi on april 19 2026 33c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-19 16:18
highest temperature in wellington on april 19 2026 20c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-19 04:41
highest temperature in karachi on april 18 2026 33c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-18 15:12
highest temperature in wellington on april 18 2026 18c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-18 07:33
highest temperature in tokyo on april 17 2026 17c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-17 10:04
highest temperature in seattle on april 16 2026 54 55f	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-17 03:43
highest temperature in ankara on april 16 2026 23c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-16 15:32
highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-16 08:16
highest temperature in atlanta on april 15 2026 86 87f	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-16 04:10
highest temperature in shanghai on april 15 2026 19c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-15 10:53
highest temperature in denver on april 14 2026 56 57f	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-15 03:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 09:32:55	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa4c908…
10-29 08:09:29	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 29?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$8	0x3104e0…
10-28 05:01:23	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x92d6f2…
10-27 08:00:33	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x31b7dd…
10-26 05:35:51	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaecfdc…
10-24 06:54:17	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on October 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9fa844…
10-22 09:54:50	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3f2618…
10-20 04:39:29	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe42bc2…
10-19 07:43:45	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on October 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd3220d…
10-18 07:36:47	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9ec02f…
10-17 07:42:00	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x29559b…
10-16 08:09:00	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x612b6f…
10-15 08:13:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x725daa…
10-14 07:16:32	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on October 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x045a66…
10-13 05:36:09	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on October 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaf1160…
10-12 04:28:26	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on October 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3226ab…
10-11 03:16:18	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or below on October 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2260ff…
10-08 07:16:37	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdc44ed…
10-07 09:05:30	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xee6e3a…
10-06 07:20:19	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x24f9ca…
10-04 08:29:47	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on October 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe8012b…
10-03 04:19:06	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbdbf5f…
10-02 07:24:57	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x819c06…
10-02 03:16:27	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x88496e…
10-01 07:55:33	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc2b989…
09-30 09:30:21	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on September 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6ddf69…
09-29 08:13:44	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcfa93d…
09-28 08:20:36	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x91f055…
09-27 08:14:53	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa41463…
09-25 07:57:11	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on September 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9403ba…
09-24 06:44:44	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa31038…
09-23 05:18:07	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on September 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x439c06…
09-22 06:16:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on September 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x03bf39…
09-21 08:26:06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 21?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x98c60f…
09-20 03:10:09	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on September 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6f439e…
09-19 07:44:16	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on September 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc3f640…
09-18 01:13:34	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbe1064…
09-17 03:45:55	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x75360b…
09-16 08:49:09	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on September 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf2008e…
09-15 23:37:37	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2aca1e…
09-15 02:30:27	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9261f7…
09-14 02:47:16	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on September 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7f379e…
09-12 08:22:33	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 12?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4d368f…
09-11 06:29:30	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C or below on September 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x093ac1…
09-10 01:50:52	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on September 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x709a41…
09-09 09:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2d4bb4…
09-08 15:43:49	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1ec87b…
09-08 01:11:39	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xca9edb…
09-07 01:53:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9f71d4…
09-06 01:27:34	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C or below on September 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4d2cf9…
09-05 09:25:27	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1f7373…
09-04 08:22:40	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xda1f36…
09-03 07:12:30	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3856b7…
09-01 01:27:55	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x26f600…
08-30 01:05:09	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3b83ab…
08-29 05:54:54	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on August 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x922aed…
08-28 02:02:57	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x587cc8…
08-27 01:21:16	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 27?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xb4d3bf…
08-26 02:05:21	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x873f82…
08-25 08:12:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x12862c…
08-24 07:23:34	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaa1bff…
08-23 07:39:43	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 23?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdacb99…
08-22 06:33:36	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe5f0cc…
08-21 01:31:13	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x69fe6b…
08-20 08:06:22	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x538bb3…
08-19 07:25:37	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x75ddde…
08-18 01:16:25	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on August 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x99194e…
08-17 06:09:58	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xff7315…
08-16 10:47:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xad538e…
08-15 05:02:03	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on August 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x63b7f1…
08-14 06:21:57	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on August 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x987ce0…
08-13 01:00:36	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xba5dda…
08-12 06:50:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7de6db…
08-11 00:28:16	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4a7dea…
08-10 00:30:22	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x853528…
08-09 01:00:49	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd1c588…
08-08 07:02:54	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4aa825…
08-07 00:29:47	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x89a8fb…
08-06 00:27:09	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa6624e…
08-05 00:39:02	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0aac07…
08-04 03:30:00	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2df599…
08-03 01:05:54	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on August 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x970998…
08-02 00:32:30	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf8daca…
08-01 00:20:33	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 31?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x57aa66…
07-31 07:19:26	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf5f873…
07-30 00:22:47	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8193b9…
07-29 01:15:51	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9b17b2…
07-28 00:25:49	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf88d49…
07-27 07:21:49	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xec9deb…
07-26 01:13:36	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfccde7…
07-25 00:34:27	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5a1a5e…
07-24 06:14:52	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on July 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe5cd54…
07-23 01:09:37	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on July 22?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x035e3d…
07-22 01:36:03	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xeccea5…
07-20 23:38:46	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4938f0…
07-19 22:31:30	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9dd358…
07-18 22:10:09	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x719848…
07-17 23:47:58	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on July 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1e2b04…
07-17 01:30:36	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x77fc21…
07-15 21:42:53	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8c70ac…