Determined-Down — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$532

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

48.0%

Resolved

Trades

129

lifetime

Volume

$13.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$102

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-20

last 08-17 19:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Crypto

75% 37% -$274

Politics

23% 44% -$308

Other

2% 100% +$49

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	1	$1000	11,111	0	+11,111	Yes	-$1,000	05-04 15:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	2	$1000	1,481	0	+1,481	Up	+$481	05-03 13:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	4	$501	702	369	+333	Up	+$133	05-03 13:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	5	$454	3,174	134	+3,039	Down	-$199	05-03 13:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	1	$400	823	0	+823	Down	+$423	05-04 11:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	3	$377	1,208	144	+1,064	Up	-$123	05-03 14:02
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	3	$374	3,423	0	+3,423	Yes	-$374	05-10 14:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	3	$355	929	200	+729	Up	+$5	05-03 13:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	2	$329	341	341	+0	Down	+$79	05-03 14:14
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$300	6,411	0	+6,411	Yes	-$300	05-04 15:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	1	$300	448	0	+448	Up	+$148	04-26 20:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	2	$289	244	234	+10	Up	+$100	04-26 19:07
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	2	$254	156	156	+0	No	+$54	05-30 17:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$239	139	139	+0	No	+$39	05-10 14:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	4	$211	4,681	0	+4,681	Up	-$211	04-26 19:13
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	2	$209	294	294	+0	Yes	+$9	05-30 17:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	1	$200	505	0	+505	Down	+$305	04-27 19:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	1	$200	386	0	+386	Up	-$200	04-27 19:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	1	$200	690	0	+690	Down	+$490	04-27 19:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	1	$200	392	0	+392	Down	-$200	04-27 19:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	2	$200	1,650	0	+1,650	Up	-$200	04-27 19:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	2	$200	10,238	0	+10,238	Down	-$200	04-27 19:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	1	$200	1,606	0	+1,606	Up	-$200	04-27 18:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	1	$200	327	0	+327	Down	-$200	04-27 19:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	2	$175	912	0	+912	Down	-$175	05-03 13:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	1	$150	629	0	+629	Down	+$479	04-26 20:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	1	$150	239	0	+239	Up	-$150	04-26 20:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	3	$150	301	0	+301	Up	-$150	05-04 11:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	4	$141	102	102	+0	Down	+$41	05-10 14:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	1	$125	234	0	+234	Up	-$125	05-03 13:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-17 19:31:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xe9790d…
08-17 19:31:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xdf48ce…
08-17 19:31:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x295a2a…
06-22 11:30:50	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x50030c…
06-12 12:35:21	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xbacdff…
05-30 18:17:07	Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	680	7¢	$50	0x4a0ebd…
05-30 18:16:40	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0xec3de0…
05-30 18:16:33	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0x1b6cc3…
05-30 18:16:21	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	267	19¢	$50	0x60ef55…
05-30 17:54:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	1,413	7¢	$100	0xa14ac8…
05-30 17:51:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	294	37¢	$109	0x0cc2e0…
05-30 17:50:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	156	99¢	$154	0xaf08e4…
05-16 13:27:25	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	426	5¢	$20	0x675e65…
05-16 13:27:18	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	465	4¢	$20	0xb03346…
05-16 13:27:14	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	402	5¢	$20	0xacaae6…
05-10 14:56:08	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	89	9¢	$8	0xd83493…
05-10 14:52:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	146	3¢	$5	0xd8db0b…
05-10 14:52:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	144	3¢	$5	0xdcadf9…
05-10 14:51:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	625	4¢	$25	0xb21f8a…
05-10 14:46:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0x1bd8b8…
05-10 14:45:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	SELL	45	63¢	$29	0x47c9e6…
05-10 14:45:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x7b73f8…
05-10 14:43:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	28	97¢	$28	0x8d8570…
05-10 14:43:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0x2e112f…
05-10 14:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	74	86¢	$63	0xd4d467…
05-10 14:40:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	74	34¢	$25	0x2fb7c5…
05-10 14:39:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	101	25¢	$25	0x0abf1a…
05-10 14:30:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	181	55¢	$100	0x019500…
05-10 14:26:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	73	34¢	$25	0x9133fe…
05-10 14:26:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0xb768f4…
05-10 14:25:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x896ae5…
05-10 14:24:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	SELL	89	86¢	$77	0xe57cfb…
05-10 14:20:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	89	28¢	$25	0xf4bd12…
05-10 14:18:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x1b1a39…
05-10 14:12:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	139	100¢	$139	0xef45f9…
05-06 18:47:45	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	2,803	9¢	$266	0x7d7393…
05-06 18:40:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	435	23¢	$100	0x13febe…
05-06 18:35:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x56afe2…
05-04 15:12:10	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	6,411	5¢	$300	0x2b5967…
05-04 15:11:58	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	11,111	9¢	$1,000	0x9ddd62…
05-04 15:11:56	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	531	19¢	$100	0x31c616…
05-04 11:46:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0xd09af2…
05-04 11:46:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x9513b9…
05-04 11:46:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x137e56…
05-04 11:36:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	823	49¢	$400	0x90a499…
05-04 11:33:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0x33943d…
05-04 11:23:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	495	2¢	$9	0x791a47…
05-04 11:21:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0xc44821…
05-04 11:15:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0xd6df73…
05-03 14:14:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	341	60¢	$204	0xaf3d23…
05-03 14:10:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	341	37¢	$125	0x4ebaed…
05-03 14:02:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1,064	12¢	$125	0x7148bb…
05-03 14:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	SELL	144	88¢	$127	0x762eda…
05-03 14:02:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	144	87¢	$125	0x9132ff…
05-03 13:58:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	56	16¢	$9	0xb8b98f…
05-03 13:58:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	277	18¢	$50	0x079d83…
05-03 13:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	369	86¢	$317	0x4e6fc2…
05-03 13:56:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	369	34¢	$125	0xd6a03e…
05-03 13:52:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	237	12¢	$28	0x7c09db…
05-03 13:47:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	434	28¢	$120	0x7afaca…
05-03 13:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1,122	7¢	$75	0x96b74b…
05-03 13:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	463	11¢	$50	0x8df1a2…
05-03 13:42:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1,454	5¢	$76	0xc4c4c7…
05-03 13:42:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	134	95¢	$128	0xbd4b20…
05-03 13:41:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	134	93¢	$125	0x78dca7…
05-03 13:36:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	234	53¢	$125	0x941fc1…
05-03 13:33:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	729	7¢	$50	0x97ec90…
05-03 13:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	200	90¢	$180	0xb364da…
05-03 13:31:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	200	63¢	$125	0xd83f06…
05-03 13:27:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	668	7¢	$50	0x244649…
05-03 13:26:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	244	51¢	$125	0xce81e5…
05-03 13:21:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	720	69¢	$500	0x402d7a…
05-03 13:21:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	762	66¢	$500	0x7e7bbb…
05-03 13:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	996	5¢	$48	0x96af77…
05-03 13:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1,354	3¢	$41	0x375045…
05-03 13:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	182	5¢	$9	0x3153ab…
05-03 13:17:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	110	23¢	$25	0xc3aa1e…
05-03 13:10:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	392	26¢	$100	0x642476…
05-03 12:29:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x1920fd…
05-03 12:29:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0xcff545…
05-03 12:29:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0x577eef…
04-27 19:46:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	140	30¢	$42	0x177bf7…
04-27 19:41:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	369	13¢	$48	0x981a43…
04-27 19:41:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1,280	12¢	$152	0x14c57f…
04-27 19:36:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	386	52¢	$200	0x3a9bbf…
04-27 19:31:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	327	61¢	$200	0xc99775…
04-27 19:29:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10,000	1¢	$100	0xff89a1…
04-27 19:25:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	238	42¢	$100	0x4541c1…
04-27 19:21:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	392	51¢	$200	0x8b4281…
04-27 19:17:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	505	40¢	$200	0xb6f016…
04-27 19:12:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	190	53¢	$100	0x8c9d0c…
04-27 19:06:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	585	15¢	$85	0x211ba9…
04-27 19:01:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	690	29¢	$200	0xfc3640…
04-27 18:52:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1,606	12¢	$200	0xce81c6…
04-27 18:45:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	156	38¢	$59	0xb24372…
04-27 18:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	475	21¢	$100	0x853f6e…
04-27 18:37:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	309	32¢	$100	0xfd47ba…
04-27 18:17:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	426	17¢	$72	0xf21ffb…
04-26 21:33:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1,020	5¢	$48	0xdc83d6…
04-26 21:33:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3,426	2¢	$52	0x863f0e…