Bleak-Cage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$644

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

41.9%

Resolved

Trades

4,014

lifetime

Volume

$52.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-26

last 06-30 12:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Politics

47% 0% $-7

Crypto

27% 15% $-637

Other

25% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 191 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	65	$2.9K	43,051	18,998	+24,053	open	—	02-28 02:17
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	14	$2.2K	5,907	5,907	+0	open	—	02-28 01:13
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 3 345	19	$1.5K	4,979	4,979	+0	open	—	03-03 20:47
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	20	$1.2K	1,424	1,424	+0	open	—	03-08 21:11
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	23	$1.2K	7,989	6,973	+1,016	open	—	03-13 15:13
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	10	$984	3,061	3,061	+0	open	—	03-15 19:13
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	6	$901	598	598	+0	open	—	02-28 19:38
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 4 844 575	36	$707	4,328	794	+3,535	open	—	03-05 01:56
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	28	$701	2,727	2,598	+130	open	—	04-24 07:59
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	37	$694	1,540	1,304	+236	open	—	04-27 15:04
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	22	$671	4,711	4,711	+0	open	—	03-16 09:26
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	28	$657	6,751	1,463	+5,288	open	—	03-10 10:04
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	18	$609	24,440	24,440	+0	open	—	03-13 15:10
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3?	38	$609	3,004	945	+2,059	open	—	05-03 14:18
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 30?	19	$600	1,720	1,000	+720	open	—	04-30 15:27
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 29?	31	$592	1,823	1,823	+0	open	—	04-29 15:42
ethereum up or down on march 9	10	$576	1,835	1,824	+11	open	—	03-09 12:31
houthi strike on israel by march 6 2026	28	$559	7,314	3,804	+3,510	open	—	03-09 22:44
bitcoin above 74k on april 22	16	$549	3,651	1,815	+1,836	open	—	04-22 07:35
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	3	$535	835	835	+0	open	—	03-02 11:16
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	4	$505	2,645	2,645	+0	open	—	03-10 06:31
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 0 39	15	$383	2,010	1,911	+99	open	—	04-15 03:46
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	3	$375	1,220	1,220	+0	open	—	03-05 08:28
us forces enter iran by march 3 882 999	24	$373	24,710	24,710	+0	open	—	03-04 01:52
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?	10	$359	1,412	1,412	+0	Yes	+$13	05-12 07:13
will iran strike syria in march	15	$358	3,345	1,145	+2,200	open	—	03-31 17:48
will any eu country strike iran by march 31	14	$356	4,987	3,768	+1,219	open	—	03-31 08:16
will another country strike iran by march 7 528	12	$348	2,740	683	+2,057	open	—	03-07 23:47
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	12	$347	56,500	56,500	+0	open	—	03-13 15:11
houthi strike on israel by february 28	25	$340	2,815	0	+2,815	open	—	03-01 02:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 15:11:46	btc updown 15m 1782831600	Up	BUY	70	10¢	$7	0x80f492…
06-30 15:11:35	btc updown 15m 1782831600	Up	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0xf6f794…
06-30 15:10:56	btc updown 15m 1782831600	Up	BUY	38	16¢	$6	0x1776af…
06-30 15:04:08	btc updown 5m 1782831600	Up	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x42f456…
06-30 15:03:32	btc updown 5m 1782831600	Down	SELL	25	38¢	$9	0x272897…
06-30 15:02:16	btc updown 5m 1782831600	Down	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x39c921…
06-30 15:01:58	btc updown 5m 1782831600	Down	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xfefddf…
06-30 14:59:50	btc updown 5m 1782831300	Down	SELL	67	36¢	$24	0xaa24f2…
06-30 14:59:20	btc updown 5m 1782831300	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x65e0fe…
06-30 14:58:32	btc updown 5m 1782831300	Up	SELL	59	59¢	$35	0x1c44dd…
06-30 14:58:08	btc updown 5m 1782831300	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x997739…
06-30 14:57:40	btc updown 5m 1782831300	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x3fbc44…
06-30 14:57:28	btc updown 5m 1782831300	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x65582e…
06-30 14:56:52	btc updown 5m 1782831300	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x0a7922…
06-30 14:52:17	btc updown 5m 1782831000	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xbd3ddc…
06-30 14:51:20	btc updown 5m 1782831000	Up	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0x5016cd…
06-30 14:39:05	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 10am et	Down	SELL	101	69¢	$69	0x292593…
06-30 14:23:55	btc updown 5m 1782829200	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x5e2d67…
06-30 14:23:44	btc updown 5m 1782829200	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x2fb676…
06-30 14:23:11	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	32	19¢	$6	0xedb08f…
06-30 14:22:11	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xe45be0…
06-30 14:21:52	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xa55ccb…
06-30 14:05:59	btc updown 15m 1782828000	Down	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x84b2bf…
06-30 14:05:10	btc updown 15m 1782828000	Down	SELL	146	16¢	$23	0x2e3572…
06-30 14:02:35	btc updown 15m 1782828000	Down	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xcb5bbb…
06-30 14:02:32	btc updown 15m 1782828000	Down	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xcc2f76…
06-30 14:02:11	btc updown 5m 1782828000	Down	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x92cc8d…
06-30 13:58:17	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x0cda40…
06-30 13:57:49	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	202	1¢	$2	0xcb935b…
06-30 13:57:32	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	211	1¢	$2	0x8f50d8…
06-30 13:56:32	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	201	1¢	$2	0x5e4470…
06-30 13:55:58	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	111	2¢	$2	0x3b3cd7…
06-30 13:55:41	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 9am et	Down	SELL	204	5¢	$10	0xa258e9…
06-30 13:55:13	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x1d062b…
06-30 13:55:02	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	58	2¢	$1	0x2946d0…
06-30 13:54:58	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0xd5a2ee…
06-30 13:48:05	btc updown 15m 1782827100	Down	SELL	36	67¢	$24	0x151875…
06-30 13:47:49	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xeb809f…
06-30 13:46:01	btc updown 15m 1782827100	Down	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x9528c5…
06-30 13:44:41	btc updown 15m 1782826200	Down	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xd01be9…
06-30 13:44:31	btc updown 15m 1782826200	Down	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x9ec6f5…
06-30 13:44:14	btc updown 15m 1782826200	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x317c2c…
06-30 13:43:19	btc updown 5m 1782826800	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x3160e7…
06-30 13:39:25	btc updown 5m 1782826500	Up	SELL	38	48¢	$18	0x69bf86…
06-30 13:38:25	btc updown 5m 1782826500	Up	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0xcd69a0…
06-30 13:35:23	btc updown 15m 1782826200	Up	SELL	28	32¢	$9	0xcaae9c…
06-30 13:34:55	btc updown 15m 1782826200	Up	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x0da151…
06-30 13:34:32	btc updown 15m 1782826200	Up	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0xb4485e…
06-30 13:31:10	btc updown 5m 1782826200	Down	BUY	72	11¢	$8	0x3d0845…
06-30 13:28:56	btc updown 5m 1782825900	Down	SELL	45	14¢	$6	0x211499…
06-30 13:27:49	btc updown 5m 1782825900	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x70e97a…
06-30 13:27:22	btc updown 5m 1782825900	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xd73042…
06-30 13:26:49	btc updown 5m 1782825900	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xa43ec1…
06-30 13:26:37	btc updown 5m 1782825900	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x0a29c9…
06-30 13:24:47	btc updown 5m 1782825600	Up	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x273232…
06-30 12:48:05	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0x33e0f6…
06-30 12:47:46	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	113	1¢	$1	0xe082ec…
06-30 12:46:56	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb93464…
06-30 12:46:50	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5cc6be…
06-30 12:46:40	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	51	2¢	$1	0xe00bab…
06-30 12:46:10	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x8e250d…
06-30 12:45:53	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0x8153a2…
06-30 12:44:46	btc updown 5m 1782823200	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xfd5e73…
06-30 12:44:40	btc updown 5m 1782823200	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x96ae19…
06-30 12:44:23	btc updown 5m 1782823200	Up	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xf7e0da…
06-30 12:42:07	btc updown 5m 1782823200	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x8bdf7d…
06-30 12:41:49	btc updown 5m 1782823200	Up	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x68736e…
06-30 12:41:41	btc updown 5m 1782823200	Up	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x55f43f…
06-30 12:40:56	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0x51a642…
06-30 12:36:43	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x9fc8ec…
06-30 12:34:31	btc updown 5m 1782822600	Up	BUY	22	8¢	$2	0xb120f6…
06-30 12:30:08	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x1871de…
06-30 12:28:02	btc updown 5m 1782822300	Down	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xb24c25…
06-30 12:27:20	btc updown 5m 1782822300	Up	SELL	32	42¢	$13	0xd52124…
06-30 12:27:02	btc updown 5m 1782822300	Up	BUY	32	21¢	$7	0x7ef466…
06-30 12:25:44	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x80d9f5…
06-30 12:25:16	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xcefd54…
06-30 12:24:34	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	225	8¢	$18	0xed903c…
06-30 12:19:43	btc updown 5m 1782821700	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x42fab3…
06-30 12:19:35	btc updown 5m 1782821700	Down	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xe2f2d1…
06-30 12:19:23	btc updown 5m 1782821700	Down	SELL	79	22¢	$17	0xcddbac…
06-30 12:18:50	btc updown 5m 1782821700	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x13b807…
06-30 12:18:29	btc updown 5m 1782821700	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xdd2011…
06-30 12:18:08	btc updown 5m 1782821700	Down	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x2da203…
06-30 12:17:14	btc updown 5m 1782821700	Down	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x2816b7…
06-30 12:17:05	btc updown 5m 1782821700	Down	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x01e641…
06-30 12:16:20	btc updown 5m 1782821700	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x1764be…
06-30 12:14:41	btc updown 5m 1782821400	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x18e84d…
06-30 12:14:37	btc updown 5m 1782821400	Up	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x346fed…
06-30 12:13:07	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	75	1¢	$1	0x47e525…
06-30 12:12:43	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x96c3e4…
06-30 12:11:07	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x54e03b…
06-30 12:09:52	btc updown 5m 1782821100	Up	SELL	44	32¢	$14	0x46b748…
06-30 12:09:20	btc updown 5m 1782821100	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x2bf7e4…
06-30 12:08:58	btc updown 5m 1782821100	Up	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0xdfd0f2…
06-30 12:04:04	btc updown 5m 1782820800	Up	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x0501bb…
06-30 12:03:58	btc updown 5m 1782820800	Up	BUY	128	1¢	$1	0x5d1c12…
06-30 11:59:29	btc updown 5m 1782820500	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xe2d75c…
06-30 11:58:58	btc updown 5m 1782820500	Up	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xd265f8…
06-30 11:57:43	btc updown 5m 1782820500	Up	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xaff2ed…