Bleak-Cage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$644

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

41.9%

Resolved

Trades

6,167

lifetime

Volume

$64.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-26

last 07-20 15:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

40% 15% $-637

Politics

39% 0% $-7

Other

21% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 338 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	65	$2.9K	43,051	18,998	+24,053	open	—	02-28 02:17
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	14	$2.2K	5,907	5,907	+0	open	—	02-28 01:13
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 3 345	19	$1.5K	4,979	4,979	+0	open	—	03-03 20:47
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	20	$1.2K	1,424	1,424	+0	open	—	03-08 21:11
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	23	$1.2K	7,989	6,973	+1,016	open	—	03-13 15:13
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	10	$984	3,061	3,061	+0	open	—	03-15 19:13
bitcoin above 62k on july 8 2026	26	$984	2,412	2,412	+0	open	—	07-08 08:25
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	6	$901	598	598	+0	open	—	02-28 19:38
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 4 844 575	36	$707	4,328	794	+3,535	open	—	03-05 01:56
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	28	$701	2,727	2,598	+130	open	—	04-24 07:59
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	37	$694	1,540	1,304	+236	open	—	04-27 15:04
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	22	$671	4,711	4,711	+0	open	—	03-16 09:26
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	28	$657	6,751	1,463	+5,288	open	—	03-10 10:04
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	18	$609	24,440	24,440	+0	open	—	03-13 15:10
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3?	38	$609	3,004	945	+2,059	open	—	05-03 14:18
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 30?	19	$600	1,720	1,000	+720	open	—	04-30 15:27
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 29?	31	$592	1,823	1,823	+0	open	—	04-29 15:42
ethereum up or down on march 9	10	$576	1,835	1,824	+11	open	—	03-09 12:31
houthi strike on israel by march 6 2026	28	$559	7,314	3,804	+3,510	open	—	03-09 22:44
bitcoin above 74k on april 22	16	$549	3,651	1,815	+1,836	open	—	04-22 07:35
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	3	$535	835	835	+0	open	—	03-02 11:16
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	4	$505	2,645	2,645	+0	open	—	03-10 06:31
ethereum above 1800 on july 12 2026	9	$415	532	532	+0	open	—	07-12 07:05
bitcoin above 62k on july 6 2026	12	$405	914	914	+0	open	—	07-06 14:48
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 0 39	15	$383	2,010	1,911	+99	open	—	04-15 03:46
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	3	$375	1,220	1,220	+0	open	—	03-05 08:28
us forces enter iran by march 3 882 999	24	$373	24,710	24,710	+0	open	—	03-04 01:52
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?	10	$359	1,412	1,412	+0	Yes	+$13	05-12 07:13
will iran strike syria in march	15	$358	3,345	1,145	+2,200	open	—	03-31 17:48
will any eu country strike iran by march 31	14	$356	4,987	3,768	+1,219	open	—	03-31 08:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 15:08:00	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 20	Yes	BUY	300	5¢	$15	0x8520cd…
07-20 15:01:30	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 20	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x53789d…
07-20 15:00:48	bitcoin above 64k on july 20 2026	No	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xdb0333…
07-20 15:00:19	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 20	Yes	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x7ca223…
07-20 14:00:00	ethereum up or down on july 20 2026	Down	SELL	48	69¢	$33	0x3e4f81…
07-20 13:25:37	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 20	Yes	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0x8d2563…
07-20 12:32:40	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 20	Yes	BUY	350	10¢	$35	0x62606e…
07-20 12:29:33	bitcoin above 64k on july 20 2026	No	BUY	119	13¢	$15	0xc1e3c3…
07-20 12:29:06	ethereum up or down on july 20 2026	Down	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x5214ab…
07-20 12:26:30	bitcoin above 64k on july 20 2026	No	BUY	310	13¢	$40	0x035f03…
07-20 09:13:04	btc updown 15m 1784538000	Down	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xce058c…
07-20 09:12:04	btc updown 15m 1784538000	Down	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xd1d583…
07-20 09:11:55	btc updown 15m 1784538000	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xc7ae3c…
07-20 08:54:42	btc updown 5m 1784537400	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x9915c4…
07-20 08:54:06	btc updown 5m 1784537400	Up	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x8730a7…
07-20 08:47:46	btc updown 15m 1784537100	Down	BUY	22	18¢	$4	0xa65122…
07-20 06:59:45	btc updown 5m 1784530500	Up	SELL	17	23¢	$4	0x3232e0…
07-20 06:59:19	btc updown 5m 1784530500	Up	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x72b8d9…
07-20 06:58:34	bitcoin above 62k on july 20 2026	No	SELL	486	3¢	$17	0x7070d1…
07-20 06:58:27	ethereum above 1800 on july 20 2026	No	SELL	375	7¢	$28	0x0905f3…
07-20 06:57:18	bitcoin above 64k on july 20 2026	No	SELL	222	53¢	$118	0x766584…
07-20 06:53:34	btc updown 5m 1784530200	Down	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xe84e00…
07-20 06:44:04	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xc85b5c…
07-20 06:43:10	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	80	5¢	$4	0xe019de…
07-20 06:38:49	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 2am et	Down	SELL	30	85¢	$26	0xf9af17…
07-20 06:27:10	btc updown 5m 1784528700	Down	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x655589…
07-20 06:16:01	bitcoin up or down july 20 2026 2am et	Down	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xebddcc…
07-20 06:09:31	btc updown 5m 1784527500	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x72dfd6…
07-20 05:49:16	btc updown 5m 1784526300	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xf25aab…
07-20 05:48:58	btc updown 5m 1784526300	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xd36ae2…
07-20 05:48:39	btc updown 5m 1784526300	Up	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x72bbeb…
07-20 05:44:52	btc updown 5m 1784526000	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xbbb3ee…
07-20 05:44:34	btc updown 5m 1784526000	Down	SELL	42	14¢	$6	0xdbcefa…
07-20 05:43:57	btc updown 5m 1784526000	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x23f9f9…
07-20 05:43:36	btc updown 5m 1784526000	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x5082f6…
07-20 05:43:01	btc updown 5m 1784526000	Down	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xc2996d…
07-20 05:42:48	btc updown 5m 1784526000	Down	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xdbcba2…
07-20 05:41:51	btc updown 5m 1784526000	Down	SELL	16	39¢	$6	0xa7e4f5…
07-20 05:41:09	btc updown 5m 1784526000	Down	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x96f06f…
07-20 05:40:45	btc updown 5m 1784526000	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xaa62a2…
07-20 05:39:43	btc updown 5m 1784525700	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x2b93f4…
07-20 05:39:28	btc updown 5m 1784525700	Down	SELL	26	23¢	$6	0x9fbec8…
07-20 05:38:57	btc updown 5m 1784525700	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x1bd24a…
07-20 05:38:42	btc updown 5m 1784525700	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xf16c55…
07-20 05:37:25	btc updown 5m 1784525700	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x240686…
07-20 05:30:03	ethereum above 1800 on july 20 2026	No	BUY	85	6¢	$5	0x52a57a…
07-20 03:38:51	bitcoin above 64k on july 20 2026	No	BUY	127	16¢	$20	0x366f00…
07-20 03:38:30	btc updown 15m 1784518200	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x397781…
07-20 03:37:04	btc updown 15m 1784518200	Down	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x5e337b…
07-20 03:36:55	btc updown 15m 1784518200	Down	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x89766d…
07-20 03:36:43	btc updown 15m 1784518200	Down	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x03dded…
07-19 21:14:57	btc updown 15m 1784494800	Down	SELL	33	35¢	$12	0x58fbb7…
07-19 21:14:15	btc updown 15m 1784494800	Down	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x7e79d8…
07-19 20:59:18	btc updown 15m 1784493900	Down	BUY	53	6¢	$3	0xb3a20d…
07-19 20:59:01	btc updown 15m 1784493900	Down	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x48e9e7…
07-19 20:57:13	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts second half	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0xa67b88…
07-18 21:44:52	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 btts first half	Yes	BUY	77	14¢	$11	0x47dcf8…
07-18 21:38:54	bitcoin above 64k on july 20 2026	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x5a49b3…
07-18 21:38:07	bitcoin above 64k on july 20 2026	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x2d5c9d…
07-18 21:37:18	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 18	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x4497d4…
07-18 21:34:49	bitcoin above 64k on july 20 2026	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x391208…
07-18 21:31:33	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 18	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x6175bc…
07-18 21:30:49	bitcoin above 64k on july 20 2026	No	BUY	80	28¢	$22	0xc50854…
07-18 21:29:55	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 18	Yes	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0x40eda7…
07-18 21:28:39	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 18	Yes	BUY	67	2¢	$1	0xf2f03f…
07-18 18:27:24	btc updown 15m 1784398500	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x4a8bbb…
07-18 18:25:04	ethereum above 1800 on july 20 2026	No	BUY	290	13¢	$38	0x027bec…
07-18 18:24:55	bitcoin above 62k on july 20 2026	No	BUY	180	5¢	$8	0x0030c2…
07-18 18:23:06	bitcoin above 62k on july 20 2026	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe27819…
07-18 18:21:06	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 18	Yes	BUY	300	4¢	$11	0xfeedd7…
07-18 17:16:07	btc updown 5m 1784394900	Down	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xc54414…
07-18 17:14:04	btc updown 5m 1784394600	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x0c582f…
07-18 17:13:39	btc updown 5m 1784394600	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x0868a0…
07-18 17:12:46	btc updown 5m 1784394600	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xda6bbe…
07-18 17:12:16	btc updown 5m 1784394600	Down	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x3b0c6a…
07-18 17:04:21	btc updown 5m 1784394000	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xc56887…
07-18 17:03:27	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 18	Yes	BUY	89	6¢	$5	0xfa322c…
07-18 17:02:12	bitcoin above 62k on july 20 2026	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x450a59…
07-18 17:00:54	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 18	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2e09af…
07-18 17:00:24	btc updown 5m 1784394000	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xf738a4…
07-18 16:58:34	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0xd333cf…
07-18 16:58:22	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	643	0¢	$2	0x736414…
07-18 16:54:22	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 18	Yes	BUY	300	5¢	$15	0xfdd144…
07-18 16:49:40	btc updown 5m 1784393100	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x68db59…
07-18 02:19:37	btc updown 5m 1784340900	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x321980…
07-18 02:18:36	btc updown 5m 1784340900	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xac0227…
07-18 02:17:03	btc updown 5m 1784340900	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xbcd63a…
07-18 02:16:49	btc updown 5m 1784340900	Down	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x8bd283…
07-17 15:56:46	bitcoin above 62k on july 20 2026	No	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x64f6cb…
07-17 15:56:22	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x54b85e…
07-17 15:54:43	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	11	6¢	$1	0xf535d2…
07-17 15:53:58	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x7a0f96…
07-17 15:53:33	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x591ade…
07-17 15:37:52	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x8d88aa…
07-17 15:37:36	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xa20a10…
07-17 15:37:19	btc updown 5m 1784302500	Down	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xe405b9…
07-17 15:36:30	btc updown 5m 1784302500	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xe2fc12…
07-17 15:36:12	btc updown 5m 1784302500	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x748def…
07-17 14:59:51	btc updown 5m 1784300100	Down	SELL	17	29¢	$5	0xd79a43…
07-17 14:59:33	btc updown 5m 1784300100	Down	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x8cec99…