Used-Panic — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$187

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

87.8%

Resolved

152

Trades

835

lifetime

Volume

$4.45K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$10

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 07-12 01:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

71% 58% $-194

Other

22% 50% +$2

Politics

6% 100% +$5

Sports

1% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 130 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		+9	$5	99¢	$9	+$4	06-23 16:16
Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7?	Yes		+3	$1	24¢	$1	$-0	06-25 20:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	15	$300	176	174	+2	open	—	04-30 18:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	1	$100	126	0	+126	Up	$-100	05-08 21:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Up	+$1	05-08 18:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Up	+$1	05-11 14:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Down	+$1	05-11 18:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Down	+$1	05-08 05:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Up	+$1	05-11 11:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Down	+$1	05-10 21:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Up	+$1	05-10 21:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Up	+$1	05-08 08:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Up	+$1	05-11 12:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Down	+$1	05-08 09:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Down	+$1	05-11 14:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Up	+$1	05-11 20:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Up	+$1	05-08 18:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Up	+$1	05-10 17:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Down	+$1	05-08 07:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Down	+$1	05-11 05:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Up	+$1	05-08 09:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	1	$100	103	0	+103	Up	+$3	05-11 17:42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	1	$100	102	0	+102	open	—	04-30 18:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	1	$100	103	0	+103	Down	+$3	05-08 18:29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	10	$77	51	50	+1	open	—	04-30 16:27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	7	$48	34	34	+0	open	—	05-29 15:08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	8	$47	62	36	+26	open	—	05-08 21:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	2	$45	29	29	+0	Up	+$5	05-12 20:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	1	$40	69	0	+69	Down	$-40	05-13 10:54
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	7	$34	28	28	+0	open	—	04-27 05:35
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	2	$32	38	0	+38	open	—	06-16 16:39
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	8	$27	29	10	+19	open	—	05-07 12:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-12 01:15:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xbc3a24…
07-04 18:58:14	Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x2f7df1…
07-02 19:59:20	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xff2a7d…
07-02 03:28:55	will xauusd dip to 3900 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x0fdfb3…
07-02 03:28:46	will xauusd dip to 3800 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xc7630e…
07-02 03:28:35	will xauusd reach 4300 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xa98215…
07-02 03:28:29	will xauusd reach 4200 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x104097…
07-02 03:27:04	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x61a177…
07-02 03:26:49	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xdc01ec…
07-01 01:39:37	Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30?	Yes	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0xb584f6…
06-27 17:39:08	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0xf8bbe5…
06-26 23:03:50	Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x35b48b…
06-25 20:11:32	Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xfae54f…
06-25 06:11:52	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x8af88f…
06-25 06:11:07	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xb991e6…
06-25 02:24:52	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xf63e75…
06-24 18:51:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$2	0xb2423b…
06-23 16:43:25	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	17	37¢	$6	0x06b074…
06-23 16:43:07	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x28a773…
06-23 16:16:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x809821…
06-16 16:51:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x95e16f…
06-16 16:39:41	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x7861b8…
06-16 16:39:26	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	Yes	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0x6a1f3c…
06-15 11:47:51	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x18fdbf…
06-15 11:47:33	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x3c0aeb…
06-15 11:45:28	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	SELL	4	7¢	$0	0x30c036…
06-08 23:00:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0x4751bc…
06-08 14:45:21	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xa1cbd6…
06-07 14:18:15	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	32¢	$1	0x5bafa3…
06-07 14:16:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x4cf3aa…
06-07 13:35:12	Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xfbc5f7…
06-07 13:34:25	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x5e1fc8…
06-03 22:31:39	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x45a40d…
06-02 11:33:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x76ec89…
06-02 11:28:27	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x972667…
06-02 11:26:21	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0x0b8313…
06-01 12:31:12	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x08e6cf…
06-01 12:30:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xab3d4b…
06-01 12:29:18	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x1df67e…
06-01 12:27:28	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x55b5f3…
05-30 18:16:05	Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x0b021b…
05-29 15:10:15	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0x0a6f79…
05-29 15:08:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0xf8ff61…
05-19 10:11:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0xcf1a67…
05-19 10:09:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xbfca1b…
05-13 10:54:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	69	58¢	$40	0xa768e3…
05-13 10:50:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0x40cd5d…
05-13 10:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x185745…
05-13 10:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x4487e9…
05-13 10:35:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xea450a…
05-13 10:27:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	SELL	8	96¢	$8	0x8d7fa0…
05-13 10:25:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x883338…
05-13 10:24:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	SELL	9	92¢	$8	0x837519…
05-13 10:23:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x4102b5…
05-13 10:20:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0xcb54da…
05-13 10:20:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xd388c8…
05-13 10:18:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0x484328…
05-13 10:14:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xbd2607…
05-13 10:07:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	9	81¢	$7	0x8733cd…
05-13 10:06:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xa8f159…
05-12 21:37:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	22	49¢	$11	0xe74313…
05-12 21:35:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x3d5886…
05-12 21:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xa0e86a…
05-12 21:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	9	86¢	$8	0x1680e3…
05-12 21:10:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x6bf0be…
05-12 20:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	29	86¢	$25	0x71076c…
05-12 20:15:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0x0adbfc…
05-12 16:36:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0xccc7c3…
05-12 16:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x40e038…
05-12 16:31:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x029187…
05-12 16:25:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xcd9a90…
05-12 15:47:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0x8fe44f…
05-12 15:45:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xc96b2d…
05-12 08:50:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x35519f…
05-12 08:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xc9702a…
05-12 08:41:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x250eaf…
05-12 08:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x3b836e…
05-12 08:36:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	10	87¢	$8	0xfe1c3e…
05-12 08:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x7e9da2…
05-12 08:26:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xaa255a…
05-12 07:15:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xe02d47…
05-12 07:15:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	51	10¢	$5	0x62e1c3…
05-12 07:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xb8bb89…
05-12 07:08:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xb4cb72…
05-12 07:05:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x016627…
05-12 06:59:49	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xb762d2…
05-11 21:26:04	Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xd74adb…
05-11 21:18:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xec0572…
05-11 21:18:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x91766c…
05-11 21:11:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x522de0…
05-11 21:10:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x381058…
05-11 20:19:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x89f0df…
05-11 18:21:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	SELL	9	80¢	$7	0x6374ae…
05-11 18:20:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xe279df…
05-11 18:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x7c0d55…
05-11 17:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x5c5b12…
05-11 14:53:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x5c47d7…
05-11 14:44:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x7b362a…
05-11 12:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x33ebf8…
05-11 11:34:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x291855…