Earnest-Morning — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$889

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 06-25 06:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Other

70% 71% +$20

Crypto

27% 95% -$16

Politics

3% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-25).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	3	$83	90	90	+0	Yes	+$36	05-26 09:42
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	1	$49	100	0	+100	Yes	+$51	06-25 06:47
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	-$1	05-13 02:39
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$34	80	0	+80	No	-$34	05-18 00:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	1	$30	31	0	+31	Up	+$1	05-22 08:04
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 22?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-22 08:07
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9PM ET	2	$30	30	0	+30	Up	+$0	05-31 01:59
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 5?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-05 01:23
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	2	$26	80	0	+80	No	-$26	05-18 00:15
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	05-07 06:58
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 31?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	05-31 02:58
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	2	$25	90	90	+0	No	-$18	05-26 09:42
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	1	$24	100	0	+100	No	-$24	06-25 06:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9PM ET	1	$23	23	0	+23	Down	-$23	04-30 01:55
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 13?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	05-13 02:46
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 22?	1	$20	20	0	+20	Yes	+$0	05-22 08:10
bitcoin above 56k on june 7 2026	1	$20	20	0	+20	Yes	+$0	06-07 06:50
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on May 31?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	05-31 03:07
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 31?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	05-31 02:47
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 22?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	05-22 08:10
bitcoin up or down june 7 2026 2am et	2	$20	20	0	+20	Up	+$0	06-07 06:47
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 22?	1	$20	20	0	+20	Yes	+$0	05-22 08:10
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	2	$20	45	45	+0	No	+$4	05-26 09:41
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	1	$19	100	0	+100	No	-$19	06-25 06:47
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 7?	1	$17	17	0	+17	Yes	+$0	06-07 06:56
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	1	$16	17	0	+17	Up	+$1	04-29 05:56
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	05-05 01:28
bitcoin up or down june 10 2026 8pm et	1	$15	15	0	+15	Up	+$0	06-11 00:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9PM ET	1	$15	15	0	+15	Up	+$0	05-05 01:56
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	2	$14	90	90	+0	No	-$14	05-26 09:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 06:47:16	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0xeca2e1…
06-25 06:47:16	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x7dadb4…
06-25 06:47:16	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0x5e8097…
06-14 05:41:16	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xe35d4f…
06-14 05:41:03	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 14?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x7ec771…
06-14 05:40:46	Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xd46f09…
06-14 05:40:34	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 14?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5fe182…
06-14 05:36:22	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 14?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xb3cd72…
06-11 00:51:34	bitcoin up or down june 10 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x0663eb…
06-07 07:03:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 07:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x2ca67f…
06-07 07:03:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x135e13…
06-07 06:58:15	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x3f099c…
06-07 06:56:31	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 7?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x83310e…
06-07 06:52:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x4c9a1c…
06-07 06:50:45	bitcoin above 56k on june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x5727f8…
06-07 06:47:03	bitcoin up or down june 7 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xff2412…
06-07 06:46:19	bitcoin up or down june 7 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xfd7f5b…
06-07 06:38:10	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 06:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x105f7b…
06-07 06:33:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x9695f6…
06-04 07:36:42	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 07:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x96c721…
05-31 03:07:41	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on May 31?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x886075…
05-31 02:58:23	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 31?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xd5455d…
05-31 02:47:07	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 31?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9f246a…
05-31 01:59:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xc58278…
05-31 01:55:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x726cac…
05-31 01:44:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xe57560…
05-26 09:43:45	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	0¢	$0	0x6a20eb…
05-26 09:42:34	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	4¢	$3	0x7aa969…
05-26 09:42:04	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	66¢	$59	0xd7cbb7…
05-26 09:41:50	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	27¢	$12	0x1bd5b5…
05-24 06:37:24	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	17¢	$8	0x5e1431…
05-24 06:37:05	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	9¢	$4	0xc6a1d8…
05-24 06:36:56	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	15¢	$14	0x0e3418…
05-24 06:36:42	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	26¢	$18	0xb9fb34…
05-24 06:36:30	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	24¢	$22	0xb670da…
05-24 06:35:57	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xf13766…
05-22 08:14:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0x33992d…
05-22 08:10:39	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 22?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x90ffc9…
05-22 08:10:21	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 22?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x423750…
05-22 08:10:09	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 22?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xd40d78…
05-22 08:07:14	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 22?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x6b1d6b…
05-22 08:04:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xf2c948…
05-18 00:15:13	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x417544…
05-18 00:14:58	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0x4625ae…
05-18 00:14:49	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	12¢	$10	0xdbc5f9…
05-18 00:14:44	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	33¢	$20	0x121f88…
05-18 00:14:37	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	43¢	$34	0x28b5f2…
05-13 02:46:01	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 13?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa22acc…
05-13 02:41:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xe8b3cb…
05-13 02:39:41	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x34ed07…
05-10 08:51:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x9572e7…
05-10 08:42:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x8817a6…
05-07 06:58:43	Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x6592bd…
05-07 06:47:52	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x200a44…
05-07 06:29:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x79eebc…
05-05 01:56:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x45a6d5…
05-05 01:28:32	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xc865b2…
05-05 01:23:34	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 5?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x1db8c3…
04-30 01:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0x1b3b0a…
04-29 06:04:34	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4f2b36…
04-29 05:56:02	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	17	93¢	$16	0xf0102a…