Scholarly-Incompetence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.1%

Resolved

427

Trades

791

lifetime

Volume

$10.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-11

last 10-19 17:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 116 days

Categories

Other

78% 78% +$2

Crypto

16% 91% +$1

Politics

5% 61% +$0

Tech

0% 67% +$0

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	5	$98	49	49	+0	No	+$0	07-20 05:53
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 21?	4	$74	37	37	+0	No	+$0	07-21 00:41
will amzn reach 272 by july 20 2026	5	$69	35	35	+0	No	+$0	07-24 13:42
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 29?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	+$0	07-29 13:11
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 24?	2	$67	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-24 03:17
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 28 be between 86 and 89?	5	$67	34	34	+0	Yes	+$0	07-24 13:09
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 100°F or higher on July 18?	2	$67	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-17 15:09
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 22?	2	$67	33	33	+0	No	$0	07-21 18:58
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?	4	$67	33	33	+0	No	$0	07-26 22:16
iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	2	$65	32	32	+0	No	$0	07-31 02:59
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on July 29?	3	$65	32	32	+0	No	$0	07-29 01:03
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 29?	2	$62	31	31	+0	No	+$0	07-29 13:12
ethereum above 1700 on august 12 2026	2	$62	62	0	+62	Yes	+$0	08-12 02:02
bitcoin above 60k on july 23 2026	3	$60	30	30	+0	Yes	+$0	07-22 13:28
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or higher on July 30?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-30 08:56
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C or higher on July 29?	5	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-28 09:54
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C or higher on July 23?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-22 19:10
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on July 26?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	$0	07-25 21:46
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 23?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-23 00:13
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 21?	3	$57	28	28	+0	No	$0	07-21 01:00
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 19?	2	$56	28	28	+0	Yes	+$0	07-19 11:14
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 20?	5	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-20 08:35
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C or below on July 23?	3	$55	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-23 04:56
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$55	27	27	+0	No	$0	07-28 01:43
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on July 30?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	$0	07-30 03:44
kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	2	$52	26	26	+0	No	$0	07-30 12:52
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 81°F or below on July 30?	3	$52	26	26	+0	No	$0	07-30 15:52
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on July 31?	3	$51	26	26	+0	No	$0	07-30 14:04
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 23?	3	$51	25	25	+0	No	+$0	07-23 09:52
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	2	$51	25	25	+0	No	+$0	07-28 16:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 17:05:39	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x48a52b…
10-18 20:29:20	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on October 19?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xd48f58…
10-16 10:18:07	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C or higher on October 16?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x356e1a…
10-13 18:53:37	Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 20 and 24 million views this week?	Yes	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x999f73…
10-13 01:21:33	Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 20 and 24 million views this week?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x2e6753…
10-12 09:29:59	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$7	0xfcc00a…
10-12 03:36:44	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfe4ebc…
10-12 01:58:09	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on October 12?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x36e333…
10-11 23:52:18	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on October 12?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x76decd…
10-10 05:41:34	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on October 10?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x12b36a…
10-10 01:12:40	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xf0c66a…
10-05 09:30:17	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on October 6?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x2da259…
10-02 01:26:32	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x48bb80…
10-01 21:51:29	Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x2ef6c4…
10-01 06:06:09	bitcoin above 76k on october 2 2026	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x9f71a5…
09-28 01:58:33	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on September 28?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x3aa0ee…
09-27 18:45:05	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 September 21-27?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xc803e0…
09-23 10:24:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 24?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xd4b70a…
09-23 07:27:58	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x20ead9…
09-23 03:27:17	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on September 23?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xe4d255…
09-22 17:46:09	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on September 23?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xc46d28…
09-21 22:35:48	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on September 22?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x11abd2…
09-18 23:43:19	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or higher on September 19?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x30701e…
09-18 02:04:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 18?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$11	0x8456d7…
09-17 13:33:52	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on September 18?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x77bbaf…
09-13 04:08:42	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or higher on September 13?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$28	0x0dc13d…
09-11 02:18:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 11?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x0943af…
09-10 19:54:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 11?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x6b8bd1…
09-07 13:48:15	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on September 8?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$15	0x2b252c…
09-06 07:05:12	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 31°C on September 6?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xd2e769…
09-06 00:46:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 6?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x726ff7…
09-05 05:45:42	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on September 5?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x3784ee…
09-04 23:38:40	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on September 5?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x6f86e9…
09-04 13:53:25	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on September 5?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x21221e…
09-04 12:34:19	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xc69c6f…
09-04 03:25:30	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C or below on September 4?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x7034d7…
09-03 21:31:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 4?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x99c61e…
09-03 09:08:51	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on September 4?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x96aa79…
09-03 02:29:52	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on September 3?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x2122af…
09-03 01:01:00	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on September 3?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1898f2…
09-02 10:12:49	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x216306…
09-02 08:35:39	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 2?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xd180c0…
09-01 10:40:52	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x70dab3…
09-01 01:25:34	Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x42e963…
08-31 03:51:10	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x7dee8a…
08-31 01:14:04	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x52db04…
08-30 18:28:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xf6c9f4…
08-30 15:26:55	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x70f6fd…
08-29 23:32:19	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 30?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xa84187…
08-29 20:08:33	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on August 30?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x6415c1…
08-29 17:12:37	will bitcoin reach 82k on august 29 2026	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x40e99e…
08-28 16:16:52	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on August 29?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xaf3d2b…
08-28 08:35:06	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 28?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x6c5831…
08-27 14:26:06	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on August 28?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xed35b1…
08-27 13:09:40	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on August 27?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x03e543…
08-26 23:55:01	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 40°C on August 27?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xea17e3…
08-26 20:49:27	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on August 27?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x7a9d6c…
08-26 11:53:03	Will MrBeast's next video get between 59 and 60 million views on day 4?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x4787d1…
08-25 13:43:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xc661cc…
08-25 12:35:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on August 25?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x38a655…
08-25 03:27:58	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0xaa187a…
08-24 21:30:34	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 36°C or higher on August 25?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x5db676…
08-24 17:30:27	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x9cc02a…
08-24 06:12:37	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 24?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xdc5a44…
08-24 03:29:30	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 24?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x3f979e…
08-23 20:28:34	Will JSDP win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x33b4ad…
08-14 19:27:25	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 15?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x045ca4…
08-14 08:44:36	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 38°C on August 15?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x4febdb…
08-13 18:18:57	ethereum above 1600 on august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xce09c4…
08-13 16:34:52	Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on August 14?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xaa99af…
08-13 08:41:13	ethereum above 1700 on august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x49c0f4…
08-13 07:09:45	solana above 70 on august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x06173e…
08-12 21:23:30	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x090447…
08-12 06:47:51	Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on August 12?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xe58b55…
08-12 02:02:22	ethereum above 1700 on august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x99aa08…
08-11 23:17:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe42072…
08-11 20:51:54	ethereum above 1700 on august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xbc99db…
08-11 11:44:37	ethereum above 1700 on august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbe392b…
08-10 22:36:40	Will Amy Klobuchar win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc1f463…
08-10 19:28:04	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 11?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x066cbf…
08-10 14:36:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on August 11?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$26	0x9c60ae…
08-10 11:34:25	Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x01793c…
08-09 12:32:39	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 93°F or below on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3cf06f…
08-09 11:22:43	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on August 10?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$22	0x055a23…
08-09 05:36:58	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 9?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x757b62…
08-09 03:21:28	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x384cd0…
08-08 17:11:07	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C or below on August 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9c4af3…
08-08 03:46:58	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 8?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x72595b…
08-08 01:29:51	will ethereum dip to 1850 on august 7	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x00c97f…
08-07 23:01:43	will ethereum dip to 1850 on august 7	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xac8e7f…
08-07 18:13:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xef1c3b…
08-07 12:22:27	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on August 8?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xecdd10…
08-07 08:46:57	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on August 8?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x4a5d6a…
08-06 06:39:26	bitcoin above 68k on august 6 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xeab3de…
08-06 02:39:00	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 106-107°F on August 6?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x79ef3c…
08-05 22:31:32	ethereum above 1700 on august 6 2026	Yes	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xe26569…
08-05 18:29:56	will bitcoin reach 68k on august 5	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x2db170…
08-05 13:15:11	xrp above 1pt2 on august 6 2026	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x8d317c…
08-05 11:33:05	xrp above 1pt2 on august 6 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9dadd2…
08-03 05:23:39	Will Islamic Charitable Projects Association win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x25bcac…