Short-Term-Urgency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

56.7%

Resolved

Trades

173

lifetime

Volume

$5.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 07-25 08:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

49% 0% $-1

Politics

35% — —

Pop-Culture

8% — —

Sports

4% 50% +$14

Tech

2% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	9	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	04-15 05:12
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	6	$409	203	300	-97	open	—	05-19 19:30
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$397	200	200	+0	open	—	04-15 05:17
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	9	$395	200	200	+0	open	—	04-15 07:42
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	2	$385	200	200	+0	open	—	04-23 07:48
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	2	$360	200	200	+0	open	—	04-23 06:50
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	3	$221	156	200	-44	open	—	03-19 19:40
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	2	$181	100	100	+0	open	—	04-28 04:43
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	2	$146	200	200	+0	open	—	04-28 01:10
donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 80 99	5	$144	200	200	+0	open	—	03-28 02:01
donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 100 119	10	$136	180	180	-0	open	—	03-28 15:02
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$97	50	50	+0	open	—	04-03 23:53
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	4	$89	100	150	-50	open	—	03-19 20:51
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 300 319	6	$80	100	100	+0	open	—	03-19 20:51
donald trump of truth social posts march 20 march 27 80 99	2	$80	200	200	+0	open	—	03-26 11:00
76ers vs. Knicks	3	$64	114	114	+0	Knicks	+$16	05-07 00:52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	2	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	05-13 19:44
donald trump of truth social posts march 13 march 20 80 99	4	$49	233	250	-17	open	—	03-19 20:52
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$47	24	24	+0	open	—	05-13 07:54
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	3	$47	1,080	80	+1,000	open	—	06-01 17:28
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	2	$47	100	100	+0	Up	$-1	05-06 04:25
will bilibili gaming golden road in 2026 20260619191254883	4	$45	25	25	+0	open	—	06-21 07:47
will xauusd dip to 4200 in june 2026	2	$44	50	50	+0	open	—	06-06 03:41
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?	2	$33	40	40	+0	open	—	06-01 11:36
iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	2	$31	20	20	+0	open	—	07-17 04:51
Will Bill Hill advance from the AK-AL primary election?	2	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	05-28 12:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$29	15	15	+0	open	—	05-22 15:02
will the announcers say president during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513555	3	$28	20	20	+0	open	—	06-16 11:45
will the announcers say vertical or verticality during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956893	2	$27	20	20	+0	open	—	07-17 04:52
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31?	2	$26	40	13	+27	open	—	06-01 11:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-25 08:04:55	will trump say sister during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556639	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x472057…
07-25 08:03:16	will trump say sister during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556639	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x3c9934…
07-25 08:02:40	will trump say save america during michigan remarks 20260724162420366	No	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x6e6c60…
07-25 08:01:33	will trump say save america during michigan remarks 20260724162420366	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x629567…
07-17 05:38:15	will pam bondi attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357122	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0xc115be…
07-17 04:52:12	will the announcers say goat or greatest of all time during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956892	No	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0xfc3602…
07-17 04:52:03	will the announcers say vertical or verticality during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956893	No	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0xd505db…
07-17 04:51:33	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x5e6b08…
07-17 04:50:27	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xa25887…
07-17 04:38:45	will the announcers say vertical or verticality during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956893	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x01af55…
07-17 04:31:42	will the announcers say shakira during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716160757335	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xd0dcd4…
07-17 04:30:03	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0xfbce51…
07-17 04:26:15	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xbcafec…
07-17 04:25:13	will the announcers say legacy during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956890	Yes	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0x980e74…
07-17 04:24:13	will the announcers say legacy during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956890	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x4f6514…
07-17 04:19:18	will the announcers say goat or greatest of all time during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956892	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x4acb29…
07-17 04:04:31	will pam bondi attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357122	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x233bec…
07-12 12:28:47	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x63d22b…
07-12 12:28:04	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x17c045…
07-12 12:19:38	israel military action against greater beirut by august 31 20260708214159403	Yes	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0x8a2eba…
07-12 12:18:34	israel military action against greater beirut by august 31 20260708214159403	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x1f0ec4…
07-10 06:25:17	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x12aacc…
07-10 06:25:07	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x62aa3f…
07-10 06:23:37	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x7f4d05…
07-10 06:22:46	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xe5c869…
07-02 06:45:40	will the announcers say long ball during the spain vs austria fifa world cup match 20260701163439796 253	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0xb3b04f…
07-02 06:43:01	will the announcers say long ball during the spain vs austria fifa world cup match 20260701163439796 253	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xabc79f…
07-02 06:29:56	will the announcers say free kick 10 times during the spain vs austria fifa world cup match	No	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0x68d0e9…
07-02 06:29:31	will the announcers say free kick 10 times during the spain vs austria fifa world cup match	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0xb84858…
06-21 08:43:10	will starmer say hate or hatred during the next pmq 20260610160650634	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xc2010a…
06-21 07:58:10	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x6d4b20…
06-21 07:57:29	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x39ab14…
06-21 07:51:11	will starmer say hate or hatred during the next pmq 20260610160650634	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x14de31…
06-21 07:50:02	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	Yes	SELL	23	7¢	$2	0x34016e…
06-21 07:49:16	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	Yes	BUY	23	7¢	$2	0xfb78c0…
06-21 07:47:43	will bilibili gaming golden road in 2026 20260619191254883	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0xbcfb12…
06-21 07:46:46	will bilibili gaming golden road in 2026 20260619191254883	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xb5b8d9…
06-21 07:24:59	will bilibili gaming golden road in 2026 20260619191254883	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x440b90…
06-21 07:24:31	will bilibili gaming golden road in 2026 20260619191254883	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x516faa…
06-16 11:53:18	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	Yes	SELL	1	26¢	$0	0xf499bd…
06-16 11:47:25	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	Yes	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xd7fd76…
06-16 11:45:18	will the announcers say president during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513555	No	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x6f772d…
06-16 11:44:15	will king abdullah ii sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950084	Yes	SELL	50	15¢	$7	0x17b70c…
06-16 11:39:18	will king abdullah ii sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950084	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x6fc0df…
06-16 11:35:46	will the announcers say president during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513555	No	SELL	15	71¢	$11	0x9249be…
06-16 11:32:07	will the announcers say president during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513555	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x60c17a…
06-06 05:27:33	kr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 18 2026 1pt58	No	BUY	0	43¢	$0	0xd8285a…
06-06 03:41:39	will xauusd dip to 4200 in june 2026	No	SELL	50	43¢	$22	0x65e404…
06-06 03:39:57	will xauusd dip to 4200 in june 2026	No	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x870186…
06-03 14:12:53	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	SELL	300	3¢	$10	0xda943e…
06-03 14:12:40	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$10	0x98ab17…
06-01 18:07:01	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$8	0x797f6c…
06-01 17:28:35	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf5cb08…
06-01 14:26:51	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	3¢	$10	0xd35bda…
06-01 14:25:51	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$8	0x32dd7c…
06-01 14:24:25	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x1a9a52…
06-01 13:31:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	80	28¢	$22	0xd13985…
06-01 13:15:53	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	80	30¢	$24	0x8026ac…
06-01 11:47:34	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	No	SELL	25	46¢	$12	0xd996fd…
06-01 11:46:06	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	No	BUY	25	46¢	$12	0x05d940…
06-01 11:46:03	Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31?	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x62222e…
06-01 11:36:55	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?	Yes	SELL	40	40¢	$16	0x0f3526…
06-01 11:33:09	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	42¢	$17	0x1c80a3…
06-01 11:29:18	Will Russia capture Kindrativka by June 30?	Yes	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0xdbc89b…
06-01 11:07:43	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	47¢	$6	0x877ef7…
06-01 11:03:12	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x787317…
06-01 09:52:16	Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31?	Yes	BUY	40	40¢	$16	0xdccb0c…
05-28 12:31:36	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x2e7ca5…
05-28 12:31:24	Will Sean Dougherty advance from the CA-19 primary election?	No	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xb1a5be…
05-28 12:25:46	Will Sean Dougherty advance from the CA-19 primary election?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x520811…
05-28 12:12:30	Will Bill Hill advance from the AK-AL primary election?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xd195a4…
05-28 12:11:35	Will Bill Hill advance from the AK-AL primary election?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x67f287…
05-28 12:06:55	Will Todd Lombardo advance from the CA-37 primary election?	No	SELL	8	82¢	$7	0xcaf43e…
05-28 12:05:02	Will Todd Lombardo advance from the CA-37 primary election?	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x19d800…
05-28 11:57:58	Will Baltazar Fedalizo advance from the CA-37 primary election?	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x439669…
05-28 11:57:27	Will Baltazar Fedalizo advance from the CA-37 primary election?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xd98a67…
05-28 11:38:55	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x721f33…
05-28 11:11:51	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May?	Yes	SELL	34	19¢	$6	0xdbfea5…
05-28 11:11:13	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May?	Yes	BUY	34	19¢	$6	0xbbf0e3…
05-23 10:16:56	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May?	Yes	SELL	19	58¢	$11	0x8ce347…
05-23 10:15:04	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May?	Yes	BUY	19	58¢	$11	0xe3a151…
05-22 15:02:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0xfdb7f2…
05-20 13:06:34	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	467	1¢	$3	0x5c30e5…
05-19 19:30:23	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	100	80¢	$80	0x2dc932…
05-18 06:02:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x1b6db0…
05-16 14:43:50	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x30e96b…
05-16 14:39:27	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	100	81¢	$81	0x60c3eb…
05-16 14:27:18	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0xeadae9…
05-16 12:30:08	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	100	82¢	$82	0xd59fe0…
05-16 12:29:19	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xc09ae5…
05-13 19:44:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xd64a33…
05-13 08:58:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x99661a…
05-13 07:54:12	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0x6ab83c…
05-13 07:08:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x76e464…
05-07 00:52:42	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	SELL	114	35¢	$40	0xb98bf2…
05-06 19:16:07	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	71	21¢	$15	0xcd939f…
05-06 18:05:29	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	43	21¢	$9	0x96a22b…
05-06 04:25:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0x0a39e2…
05-06 04:11:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0x7a83a3…
05-05 12:38:44	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	70	8¢	$6	0x9797dc…