Mountainous-Defense — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$15

Unrealized P&L

-$15

Hit rate

57.9%

Resolved

686

Trades

4,025

lifetime

Volume

$26.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-26 19:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 132 days

Categories

Other

67% 39% +$128

Politics

13% 38% +$114

Sports

11% 20% +$21

Crypto

8% 60% -$244

Tech

1% 40% -$4

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 143 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?	Yes	+20	$1	17¢	$3	+$2	08-22 16:28
Will Michael Harris II win the 2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year award?	Yes	+40	$5	4¢	$2	-$3	08-31 04:49
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	+2	$1	69¢	$1	+$1	08-28 19:42
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	No	+1	$3	4¢	$0	-$3	09-15 16:41
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	Yes	+2	$6	1¢	$0	-$6	09-04 07:18
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	No	+0	$0	12¢	$0	+$0	09-01 08:29
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?	No	+0	$6	2¢	$0	-$6	09-13 02:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	13	$1.5K	1,143	1,143	+0	Yes	+$732	08-04 18:49
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?	10	$863	1,460	1,460	+0	No	-$115	08-28 08:11
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	3	$860	471	471	+0	No	+$69	08-17 08:26
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	2	$750	601	601	+0	Yes	+$450	07-16 22:38
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	4	$574	500	500	+0	No	+$424	08-04 18:49
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?	11	$473	280	280	+0	No	+$87	08-12 13:09
Will the White River at Indianapolis peak over 20 ft during the August 2026 floods?	10	$287	183	183	+0	Yes	+$21	08-24 08:44
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	2	$262	570	0	+570	Yes	-$262	07-23 20:30
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?	7	$260	390	390	+0	No	-$101	08-21 10:29
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	1	$250	312	0	+312	Yes	+$62	08-05 14:04
Will the White River at Indianapolis peak between 17 and 20 ft during the August 2026 floods?	9	$250	190	190	+0	No	-$1	08-20 19:30
Will Eliott Rodriguez be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?	3	$188	100	100	+0	Yes	+$10	08-19 01:16
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	4	$163	1,568	0	+1,568	No	-$163	08-05 07:45
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	1	$149	210	0	+210	open	—	10-10 11:10
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be 5,600,000 or more?	1	$148	170	0	+170	open	—	10-10 11:11
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in June?	3	$143	415	0	+415	No	-$143	07-09 11:55
yevhen khmara appointed as ukrainian minister of defence by august 31	8	$140	300	208	+92	Yes	-$57	08-19 00:09
Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	2	$122	108	26	+82	No	+$6	08-29 10:28
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	1	$114	150	0	+150	open	—	10-10 11:12
google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by august 31 2026	5	$111	192	0	+192	Yes	-$111	08-28 13:48
Will the San Diego Padres clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	21	$108	141	136	+5	Yes	-$1	09-07 14:23
cs2 big5 g2 2026 08 13	3	$103	63	63	+0	G2	+$23	08-13 16:58
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	1	$100	501	0	+501	No	-$100	10-24 19:11
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?	1	$100	335	0	+335	No	-$100	08-10 16:22
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	1	$100	120	0	+120	open	—	10-10 11:13
Will Yordan Alvarez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?	17	$96	120	120	+0	Yes	-$4	09-10 04:33
will a 6pt0 earthquake occur in the united states in august 1786383260324	4	$95	263	73	+190	No	-$31	08-17 19:59
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $340,000 and $345,000 on September 30?	1	$94	110	0	+110	Yes	+$16	09-28 05:43
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31?	2	$90	50	50	+0	Yes	-$1	09-06 16:41
Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?	14	$87	109	109	+0	open	—	09-23 02:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 19:21:09	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	185	5¢	$10	0x0606ca…
10-24 19:11:20	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	501	20¢	$100	0x0064b7…
10-10 20:55:46	Will Miroslav Sabol win the 2026 Košice mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xed63c1…
10-10 11:23:37	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	290	26¢	$76	0x860a1f…
10-10 11:23:10	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	290	29¢	$84	0xc35fe0…
10-10 11:13:03	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x5e71b3…
10-10 11:12:45	Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	76¢	$114	0xfedd88…
10-10 11:11:21	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be 5,600,000 or more?	No	BUY	170	87¢	$148	0x9dbeaa…
10-10 11:10:58	Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	210	71¢	$149	0x2c4eb2…
10-10 05:50:18	Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x0e17ce…
10-09 18:28:14	Will Werder Bremen be relegated from the 2026-27 Bundesliga?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x4ac554…
10-09 13:49:24	Will Marítimo be relegated from the 2026-27 Primeira Liga?	Yes	SELL	30	16¢	$5	0x263ed7…
10-09 13:17:25	Will Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo win the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0x6a8056…
10-09 00:23:06	Will Javonte Williams finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing touchdowns?	Yes	SELL	14	3¢	$0	0xdb6968…
10-08 21:33:02	Marco Rubio Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x782ecb…
10-08 07:36:36	Will the Cowboys win the season series against the Eagles during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	1	22¢	$0	0xdb29f3…
10-07 21:38:25	Will KFUM Oslo be relegated from the 2026 Norway Eliteserien?	Yes	SELL	12	13¢	$2	0x70cb61…
10-07 20:39:39	Will KFUM Oslo be relegated from the 2026 Norway Eliteserien?	Yes	SELL	3	19¢	$0	0x3e3274…
10-07 11:12:54	Will John Harbaugh win the 2026 NFL Coach of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0xadafb0…
10-06 18:54:48	Will Gilberto Mora play for RB Leipzig next?	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0x5cc9d0…
10-05 23:19:59	Will A.J. Brown have 9.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0xe9c0c2…
10-05 23:19:59	Will A.J. Brown have 9.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0xb4d569…
10-05 08:43:07	Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xeb2a16…
10-05 07:59:58	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-11 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	14	19¢	$3	0x2de9ba…
10-05 01:37:04	Will Pachuca finish 2nd in the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x25a8a8…
10-05 00:31:11	Will Rutgers have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	O 4.5	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0x6af3dd…
10-04 13:22:02	Will San Diego State Aztecs Win the 2026 Pac-12 Championship?	Yes	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0xeecaac…
10-04 13:21:52	Will San Diego State Aztecs Win the 2026 Pac-12 Championship?	Yes	SELL	18	2¢	$0	0xef64a9…
10-04 02:16:43	Will Democrats win Latino men in the midterms?	No	SELL	12	12¢	$1	0x838174…
10-03 22:56:40	Will Werder Bremen be relegated from the 2026-27 Bundesliga?	Yes	SELL	25	11¢	$3	0x83c596…
10-03 22:47:32	Will Marítimo be relegated from the 2026-27 Primeira Liga?	Yes	SELL	10	16¢	$2	0x890e93…
10-02 11:11:41	Will Darius Taylor be the 2026 D1 Rushing Yards Leader?	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0x62c48b…
10-02 01:22:44	Will DeSean Bishop be the 2026 D1 Rushing Yards Leader?	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0x5c3ab2…
10-02 01:22:14	Will Jaxson Dart finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns?	Yes	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0xe1dfa5…
10-01 07:53:50	Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0xbccab4…
10-01 02:27:39	Will Ja'Marr Chase finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receiving yards?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x8e512d…
09-30 22:45:51	Will Comoros win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group G?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0xe5b02e…
09-30 22:32:11	Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	26	7¢	$2	0xe8354e…
09-30 20:48:27	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x63e10c…
09-29 20:32:18	Will T.J. Watt win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x8b4d7a…
09-29 18:08:59	Will Red Star Belgrade be relegated from the 2026-27 Serbian SuperLiga?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xc67b47…
09-29 13:13:45	Will Algeria win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group I?	No	SELL	40	7¢	$3	0xbe9265…
09-29 10:45:47	Will Sitiveni Selui win the Ongo Niua 17 by-election?	Yes	SELL	19	2¢	$0	0x67ad50…
09-29 10:43:12	JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xe0ddd0…
09-29 07:53:02	Will Pachuca finish 2nd in the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x6dc67f…
09-28 23:21:08	Will Daniil Medvedev Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	No	SELL	2	25¢	$1	0x0cc0c8…
09-28 19:54:50	Will Trabzonspor be relegated from the 2026-27 Süper Lig?	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0x7fc2e4…
09-28 18:40:11	Will Joshua Van fight Asu Almabayev next?	Yes	SELL	39	1¢	$0	0xb9eac0…
09-28 17:22:30	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x9ca5bf…
09-28 16:46:24	Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers advance to the NFC Championship Game in the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x9091fa…
09-28 13:56:59	Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	12	16¢	$2	0xd39b8d…
09-28 13:38:54	Will Pachuca finish 2nd in the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?	Yes	SELL	78	3¢	$2	0xfeaabb…
09-28 12:09:24	Will Daniil Medvedev Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	No	SELL	26	25¢	$6	0x614bf9…
09-28 09:56:02	Will Petar Musa win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x7deddf…
09-28 08:22:45	Will Petar Musa win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xde321f…
09-28 05:45:47	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	60	52¢	$31	0x971003…
09-28 05:45:05	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	280	27¢	$76	0x4aa9f0…
09-28 05:44:17	Will London have between 40-50mm of precipitation in September?	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x3d05fb…
09-28 05:43:30	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $340,000 and $345,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	110	85¢	$94	0xf8b0c2…
09-28 03:58:17	Will Denver Broncos win the 2026 AFC West?	Yes	SELL	18	27¢	$5	0xb08b45…
09-28 03:56:48	Will Denver Broncos win the 2026 AFC West?	Yes	SELL	12	27¢	$3	0xab1169…
09-28 02:35:23	Will Michigan have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	O 8.5	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x91a077…
09-28 01:36:05	Will a hurricane make landfall in Virginia by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x822f8a…
09-28 01:35:50	Will a hurricane make landfall in South Carolina by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x93a98f…
09-28 01:35:06	Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	6¢	$1	0xb1ff3f…
09-28 01:34:53	Will a hurricane make landfall in Mississippi by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xb010c4…
09-27 23:38:23	Will Alex de Minaur Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	18¢	$7	0xd0ae0b…
09-27 23:31:42	Will Ahmad Hardy be the 2026 D1 Rushing Yards Leader?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x72f145…
09-27 23:23:11	Will Aaron Rodgers have 24.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x336fe4…
09-27 20:38:35	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	60	94¢	$56	0x254c5a…
09-27 19:31:03	Will Sonny Styles win the 2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x2a7850…
09-27 17:59:24	Will the New York Giants make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	16	17¢	$3	0x3698e9…
09-27 17:56:18	Will Sonny Styles win the 2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?	Yes	SELL	26	4¢	$1	0x2f2233…
09-27 15:22:08	Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers advance to the NFC Championship Game in the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xa25170…
09-27 14:13:18	Will A.J. Brown have 5.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	1	41¢	$0	0xc4af04…
09-27 13:11:06	Will UTSA Roadrunners Win the 2026 American Conference?	Yes	SELL	4	17¢	$1	0xb9eb7a…
09-27 12:55:51	Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	No	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x8b57c7…
09-27 12:55:27	Will Singapore win Group D at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup?	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0xd69585…
09-27 11:48:41	Will UTSA Roadrunners Win the 2026 American Conference?	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0x9162ec…
09-27 10:34:41	Will Grêmio be relegated from the 2026 Brazil Série A?	Yes	SELL	6	47¢	$3	0xd841e6…
09-27 10:13:27	Will A.J. Brown have 5.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	19	41¢	$8	0xbde267…
09-27 10:09:56	Will Alex de Minaur Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	18¢	$1	0x220496…
09-27 09:07:23	Will Milwaukee Bucks advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinals in the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0xfcc365…
09-27 09:03:20	Will Atalanta qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xe850a4…
09-27 05:31:57	Will Caleb Williams have 24.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x8b1ab4…
09-27 00:46:03	Will Caio Borralho fight Joe Pyfer next?	Yes	SELL	40	6¢	$2	0x852fe1…
09-26 23:53:11	Will Netherlands host the 2027 UEFA Nations League Finals?	Yes	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x4dbc9e…
09-26 22:43:20	Will England be relegated from Nations League A in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0xbf2364…
09-26 22:32:30	Will the season series between the Eagles and Commanders end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	24	2¢	$0	0xd1ca79…
09-26 22:15:11	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year?	No	SELL	6	49¢	$3	0x88eb39…
09-26 21:44:50	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year?	No	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0xa23656…
09-26 21:42:54	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year?	No	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x798042…
09-26 18:24:36	Will Kuwait win Group A at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup?	Yes	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0xcbda8f…
09-26 18:16:59	Will Rafael Jodar Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	38¢	$8	0xd4ef00…
09-26 17:02:32	Will LSU Tigers Win the 2026 SEC Championship?	Yes	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xb12a23…
09-26 16:50:09	Will Ohio Bobcats Win the 2026 MAC Championship?	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0xafdba0…
09-26 16:39:33	Will LSU Tigers Win the 2026 SEC Championship?	Yes	SELL	14	6¢	$1	0xd124b1…
09-26 16:39:12	Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0x138524…
09-26 16:33:30	Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0xc6b412…
09-26 13:36:48	Will South Africa win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group D?	Yes	SELL	11	55¢	$6	0x4bbcff…