Heavy-Miss — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$324

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.4%

Resolved

127

Trades

624

lifetime

Volume

$4.86K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 10-11 05:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 32 days

Categories

Other

99% 33% +$349

Sports

1% 0% -$25

Politics

0% 0% $0

Crypto

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11?	10	$714	415	325	+90	No	+$24	06-11 19:46
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12?	3	$362	266	100	+166	No	+$4	06-12 18:47
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11?	20	$336	291	291	+0	Yes	+$193	06-11 19:35
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,137,000 on September 30?	17	$206	165	100	+65	No	+$20	08-04 21:44
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12?	3	$198	200	100	+100	Yes	+$2	06-12 18:26
Will Synopsys Q2 Design Automation revenue be above $1.8B?	3	$155	223	219	+4	Yes	-$148	05-27 20:35
will nike q4 greater china revenue be above 1pt3b	3	$142	299	167	+132	No	-$7	06-30 20:28
Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be between $1,174,000 and $1,188,000 on June 30?	3	$135	69	69	+0	No	+$2	06-28 15:58
Will the median home value in Chicago be greater than $354,000 on June 30?	4	$119	124	0	+124	No	+$5	06-22 22:40
Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q2 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 0%-2%?	8	$118	1,291	0	+1,291	No	-$118	07-12 20:01
Will ISM Services PMI be below 50.0 in July?	36	$116	168	0	+168	No	+$52	07-13 11:40
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11?	6	$107	115	0	+115	No	+$8	06-11 19:48
Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?	3	$107	189	90	+99	No	+$39	07-10 15:40
Will Dell Q1 Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue be above $23.5B?	1	$99	100	0	+100	Yes	+$1	05-28 20:09
will microsoft msft q4 cloud revenue be above 59pt5b 20260717035853879	3	$98	170	68	+102	No	-$20	07-18 22:55
will chevron cvx q2 oil equivalent barrels per day net production koebd be above 4pt1m 20260718020317332	3	$95	141	1	+140	No	+$47	07-19 21:21
will nextera energy nee q2 operating revenue be above 7pt5b 20260703222021533	1	$90	280	0	+280	Yes	+$190	07-08 21:45
Visa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 7.5%-8.5%?	3	$85	200	150	+50	No	+$32	07-21 04:04
Will Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?	6	$79	437	0	+437	No	-$79	07-29 16:08
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,204,000 and $1,237,000 on June 30?	2	$76	78	0	+78	No	+$2	06-22 22:28
highest temperature in seoul on january 26 0c	1	$70	2,591	0	+2,591	No	-$70	01-26 02:52
Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 42%-44%?	4	$61	222	222	+0	No	+$46	07-12 19:23
Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 44%+?	16	$59	547	547	+0	No	+$50	07-12 19:23
will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 3pt1b	1	$54	73	0	+73	Yes	-$54	07-13 10:02
Will the median home value in NYC be between $609,000 and $636,000 on September 30?	4	$53	220	121	+99	No	+$5	07-11 22:59
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%?	1	$47	264	0	+264	Yes	+$216	06-09 18:34
aapl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 30 2026 1pt89	1	$46	220	0	+220	Yes	-$46	07-29 20:47
will nike q4 greater china revenue be above 1pt4b	9	$43	1,125	340	+785	No	-$42	06-30 20:28
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be below -3%?	22	$42	930	67	+863	No	-$30	06-25 12:58
will nike q4 greater china revenue be above 1pt0b	3	$41	48	0	+48	Yes	+$6	06-30 20:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-11 05:54:00	Will Prologis (PLD) Q3 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.55?	Yes	BUY	28	41¢	$11	0xefea97…
10-10 09:05:51	Will Prologis (PLD) Q3 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.50?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x3f90b8…
10-10 02:09:39	Will Prologis (PLD) Q3 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.55?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x78b06a…
09-30 13:03:09	Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,161,000 and $1,196,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	139	1¢	$2	0xc98a58…
09-10 11:53:09	Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,161,000 and $1,196,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x1fcdfe…
09-07 13:07:51	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,198,000 and $1,220,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0xbb70d6…
09-07 13:07:51	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,198,000 and $1,220,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x812e66…
09-07 13:07:49	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,198,000 and $1,220,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x6b3089…
09-07 13:07:48	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,198,000 and $1,220,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xdbadda…
09-07 13:07:48	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,198,000 and $1,220,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x7b3c38…
09-07 13:07:48	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,198,000 and $1,220,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0x6f3a18…
09-07 13:07:48	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,198,000 and $1,220,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x24fd7f…
09-04 10:44:13	Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,161,000 and $1,196,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x4accc0…
09-04 10:41:00	Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,161,000 and $1,196,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xd2bad0…
08-25 12:48:19	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xd9f202…
08-25 12:48:19	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x3f68b9…
08-24 13:29:04	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	95	0¢	$0	0xda3fbe…
08-24 13:29:03	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xd04264…
08-24 13:29:03	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	84	0¢	$0	0x90ffe7…
08-24 13:29:03	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	32	0¢	$0	0x8c6557…
08-24 12:52:24	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x8fd54a…
08-24 12:48:52	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x5e809b…
08-20 04:07:48	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	38	0¢	$0	0xf061b5…
08-20 04:07:40	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xfd7331…
08-20 04:07:40	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x9c94a6…
08-20 04:07:40	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x618754…
08-18 11:16:45	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,198,000 and $1,220,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	39	2¢	$1	0x8fb952…
08-18 11:16:45	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,198,000 and $1,220,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x0f12a3…
08-14 12:44:51	Will the median home value in Miami be at least $1,196,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	55	0¢	$0	0x677d5e…
08-13 13:05:51	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,201,000 and $1,216,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x23733f…
08-13 09:56:06	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $470,000 and $478,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x8dd260…
08-12 17:50:10	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $470,000 and $478,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xe4cb1d…
08-12 17:50:10	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $470,000 and $478,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x42bfaf…
08-12 13:00:49	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,185,000 and $1,201,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	75	1¢	$1	0x4d8824…
08-12 13:00:49	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be at least $1,216,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	103	0¢	$0	0x238a3f…
08-12 11:45:31	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $470,000 and $478,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	36	1¢	$0	0xb65046…
08-11 13:45:58	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa67a95…
08-05 14:12:21	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $470,000 and $478,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0xc1b9d7…
08-05 14:02:03	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $470,000 and $478,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xaf4856…
08-05 13:02:14	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be at least $1,216,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0xa4f581…
08-05 13:02:14	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be at least $1,216,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x369db9…
08-05 13:02:14	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be at least $1,216,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	28	0¢	$0	0x1b9aee…
08-04 21:44:21	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be at least $1,216,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xf2b6a8…
08-04 21:44:21	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,137,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x3a9095…
08-04 21:44:21	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be at least $1,216,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x123e15…
08-04 17:36:36	Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3% and 4%?	Yes	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0x46a57c…
08-04 17:36:30	Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3% and 4%?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x796d01…
08-04 17:36:24	Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3% and 4%?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x172692…
08-04 17:36:14	Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3% and 4%?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xc13468…
08-03 03:41:03	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be at least $1,216,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x307fce…
08-03 03:26:57	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be at least $1,216,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0x7abf6b…
08-03 03:26:57	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be at least $1,216,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	29	0¢	$0	0x72b39a…
08-03 01:41:56	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be at least $1,216,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x8d766a…
08-02 22:16:15	Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3% and 4%?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x04bdd9…
08-02 22:16:08	Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3% and 4%?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x92b778…
08-02 22:15:56	Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3% and 4%?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x1ac724…
08-02 22:15:50	Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3% and 4%?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xa89557…
08-02 18:17:36	Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3% and 4%?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x8a11c5…
08-02 17:52:47	Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3% and 4%?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xf8385b…
08-02 17:52:41	Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3% and 4%?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x089cc6…
08-02 17:52:33	Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3% and 4%?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x424809…
08-02 17:52:27	Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3% and 4%?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xcfa60b…
08-02 17:52:09	Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3% and 4%?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x3ac41c…
08-02 13:19:42	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.6M and 7.7M in June?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x2398d5…
07-31 16:16:59	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0x1e47f3…
07-31 16:16:44	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	7	11¢	$1	0xc903c2…
07-31 16:16:33	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0x6d5fa1…
07-31 16:16:29	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0x226f6f…
07-31 16:16:15	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xb1362e…
07-31 16:16:03	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	49	12¢	$6	0xd60a91…
07-29 20:47:51	aapl quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 30 2026 1pt89	No	BUY	220	21¢	$46	0x7e8444…
07-29 19:25:21	Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) <38%?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x9e38eb…
07-29 19:25:21	Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) <38%?	Yes	BUY	19	3¢	$1	0x3d2185…
07-29 16:09:09	Will Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.6%?	Yes	SELL	35	66¢	$23	0x640590…
07-29 16:08:23	Will Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?	Yes	BUY	198	7¢	$13	0xcaa911…
07-28 22:20:34	Amphenol (APH) Q2 organic sales growth 40%+?	Yes	BUY	237	0¢	$1	0xed33fe…
07-28 22:20:26	Amphenol (APH) Q2 organic sales growth 36%-40%?	Yes	BUY	140	6¢	$8	0x20713c…
07-28 20:18:38	Mastercard (MA) Q2 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 12.5%+?	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x2d1f79…
07-27 15:53:48	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	31	39¢	$12	0x9d9d11…
07-27 15:50:45	Will the median home value in Miami be at least $1,196,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	71	9¢	$6	0x36ccaf…
07-27 15:50:01	Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	42	36¢	$15	0xeec191…
07-27 10:34:22	Visa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) <7.5%?	Yes	SELL	24	10¢	$2	0x5855c3…
07-27 08:00:13	Coca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth <3.5%?	No	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0x44169c…
07-26 09:01:31	Visa (V) Q3 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 9.5%-10.5%?	Yes	BUY	90	17¢	$15	0x0f92dc…
07-26 00:23:43	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x1cdcf7…
07-26 00:23:42	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x4a85a5…
07-26 00:18:48	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	46	1¢	$0	0xd325b6…
07-26 00:18:48	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $478,000 and $486,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x85d6ed…
07-25 09:01:25	Will Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x5139a0…
07-24 20:46:34	Will Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?	Yes	BUY	67	21¢	$14	0x510484…
07-24 13:56:16	will microsoft msft q4 cloud revenue be above 59b 20260717035853878	Yes	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0xfbaeab…
07-23 17:03:16	Visa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) <7.5%?	Yes	SELL	24	10¢	$2	0x0a79fe…
07-23 15:02:45	Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) <38%?	Yes	BUY	13	3¢	$0	0xf0ae2b…
07-23 15:02:45	Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) <38%?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xd1c1a7…
07-23 03:10:55	Visa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) <7.5%?	Yes	SELL	19	10¢	$2	0xbac5f5…
07-22 22:40:00	Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) <38%?	Yes	SELL	165	6¢	$10	0x53a2d2…
07-22 18:26:55	Union Pacific (UNP) Q2 adjusted operating ratio 61%+?	Yes	BUY	11	6¢	$1	0x418a2f…
07-22 18:08:51	Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) <38%?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x65ee83…
07-22 17:43:54	Union Pacific (UNP) Q2 adjusted operating ratio 61%+?	Yes	BUY	12	6¢	$1	0x28f247…
07-22 17:31:21	Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) <38%?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xe3721c…