Lively-Typhoon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

75.9%

Resolved

438

Trades

810

lifetime

Volume

$11.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-05

last 10-19 16:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 125 days

Categories

Other

76% 83% $0

Crypto

17% 81% +$1

Politics

5% 80% +$0

Sports

1% 67% +$0

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on July 21?	5	$110	55	55	+0	No	$0	07-20 23:39
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C or below on July 23?	4	$78	39	39	+0	No	+$0	07-23 01:44
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 22?	3	$78	39	39	+0	No	+$0	07-21 14:25
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on July 28?	5	$76	38	38	+0	No	$0	07-28 08:04
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 27?	5	$72	36	36	+0	No	+$0	05-27 20:40
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	3	$71	35	35	+0	No	+$0	05-30 07:28
will thomas coxe advance from the ca 19 primary election 984	4	$69	35	35	+0	No	$0	06-04 03:13
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or below on July 26?	4	$69	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-25 11:26
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 30?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-29 17:51
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 29?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-28 20:06
will bitcoin reach 70k july 13 19 2026	2	$67	34	34	+0	No	+$0	07-19 23:49
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C or below on July 24?	2	$67	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-23 15:20
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on July 28?	3	$66	33	33	+0	No	+$0	07-27 14:18
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 12?	4	$66	33	33	+0	No	+$0	10-12 05:56
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 21?	2	$66	33	33	+0	No	+$0	07-21 22:18
will russia capture all of drobysheve by july 31	2	$65	33	33	+0	No	$0	07-29 14:21
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?	9	$65	33	33	+0	No	$0	07-26 23:30
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 21?	2	$65	33	33	+0	No	$0	07-21 14:28
bitcoin above 72k on july 22 2026	2	$65	32	32	+0	No	+$0	07-22 00:42
ethereum above 1700 on july 25 2026	2	$64	32	32	+0	Yes	+$0	07-25 11:09
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on July 19?	3	$63	32	32	+0	No	$0	07-19 02:16
will australia send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952746	2	$61	30	30	+0	No	$0	07-30 17:23
kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	07-30 05:27
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	07-29 17:53
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than -0.5%?	2	$58	30	28	+1	No	$0	07-29 03:02
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or below on July 25?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-25 11:02
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 11?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	$0	07-10 14:02
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on July 28?	4	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-28 02:05
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on July 23?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-23 15:22
will wti reach 115 by july 20 2026	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	$0	07-24 15:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 16:16:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x60f8e5…
10-18 16:27:30	Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0x1908b8…
10-16 12:56:52	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on October 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe4f37f…
10-13 11:40:46	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 13?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$25	0xcae572…
10-13 08:46:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 13?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x851529…
10-12 10:42:30	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on October 12?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x236fc2…
10-12 10:40:41	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 12?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x6b23b3…
10-12 09:01:21	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on October 12?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xcbccf2…
10-12 05:56:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 12?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x2a8de1…
10-12 04:00:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 12?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xe49a12…
10-12 00:07:15	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 12?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xcb95b6…
10-11 22:10:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 12?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x1fe1e8…
10-11 16:59:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 12?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x8fb91d…
10-10 09:29:27	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or higher on October 10?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xea0188…
10-10 04:26:16	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on October 10?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6bda2e…
10-05 11:41:14	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C or higher on October 6?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xa4df5f…
10-02 00:29:41	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 on October 1?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xc2925e…
10-01 23:26:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 2?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x6f1fd9…
10-01 06:08:48	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on October 1?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x69dd73…
09-28 03:05:11	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on September 28?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xacc6f5…
09-27 20:26:08	Will Jeremy Peña have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x703309…
09-23 19:13:04	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on September 24?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd3eff0…
09-23 14:29:49	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on September 24?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xefd471…
09-23 10:44:19	bitcoin above 82k on september 23 2026	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xcb97be…
09-23 04:16:44	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on September 23?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$14	0xa55525…
09-22 17:50:21	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on September 23?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xd9a5ef…
09-22 01:04:36	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$34	0xf11182…
09-19 07:31:07	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on September 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x154458…
09-18 23:45:33	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on September 19?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$22	0xc1adc6…
09-18 00:51:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on September 18?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xae4d4c…
09-17 16:37:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 18?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x388dd9…
09-13 05:17:00	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or higher on September 13?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xd20c16…
09-11 17:59:25	Will "Onslaught" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$17	0x35ceb6…
09-11 17:56:48	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 11?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x612011…
09-11 01:55:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 11?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xc99aa0…
09-10 20:28:45	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on September 11?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x7e50d2…
09-07 17:03:43	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or higher on September 8?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x1e21d1…
09-06 21:43:07	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on September 7?	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x3be0f1…
09-06 09:22:10	Will "Onslaught" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$17	0x9cfc31…
09-05 23:56:18	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or below on September 6?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdd772f…
09-05 06:28:30	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on September 5?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x04a59e…
09-05 03:27:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on September 5?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x3cbece…
09-05 01:33:39	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on September 5?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x9e4b88…
09-04 17:10:19	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 5?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xfc1bb3…
09-04 07:11:36	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on September 4?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5cbc2d…
09-04 01:29:16	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on September 5?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xb1c6b2…
09-03 21:24:06	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on September 4?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x6d7d67…
09-03 09:44:42	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on September 4?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x5ebbf8…
09-03 00:33:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 3?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x7cae0d…
09-02 10:49:06	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xfd7e79…
09-02 07:53:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 2?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xb827bf…
09-02 05:19:28	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on September 2?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xc26fac…
09-01 12:45:40	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xe32058…
09-01 05:19:04	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 1?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x30527d…
08-31 06:23:07	Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x725fac…
08-31 04:02:07	Lecornu out as French PM by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x7c9aa5…
08-30 19:55:31	Lecornu out as French PM by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x35477f…
08-30 10:21:04	ethereum above 2600 on august 30 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x21ae24…
08-30 05:43:55	ethereum above 2700 on august 30 2026	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x95c421…
08-29 22:15:37	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 30?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xcb2ccf…
08-29 15:08:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on August 29?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x2163f5…
08-29 07:08:30	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 29?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd42a1d…
08-28 04:43:33	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x4fbb56…
08-27 11:30:55	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xc3840e…
08-27 08:20:45	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C or below on August 28?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x81e683…
08-26 23:21:25	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on August 27?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x3710e6…
08-26 23:13:16	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on August 27?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$30	0xe47706…
08-26 15:57:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 27?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x21bc9f…
08-26 09:35:55	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7e63cb…
08-25 12:28:16	Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x97af0a…
08-25 07:37:27	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x3fd6e3…
08-25 01:44:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on August 25?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x3059da…
08-24 20:15:28	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x4c9888…
08-24 10:07:37	Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xa2dd7f…
08-24 00:50:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 24?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0xd8b8ed…
08-23 22:22:39	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 24?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xaba793…
08-14 16:31:10	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 15?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x2af8d8…
08-14 08:30:48	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa58e23…
08-13 17:27:57	Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be at least 60,000?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x8ea5be…
08-13 16:40:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1c9beb…
08-13 10:59:25	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 14?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xb49621…
08-13 07:05:37	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xb2bd81…
08-12 21:42:37	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C or below on August 13?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xd8759f…
08-12 05:49:19	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in July 2026 be between 2.7% and 2.9%?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x412c33…
08-12 05:08:04	ethereum above 2000 on august 12 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x375868…
08-12 00:55:12	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 12?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xb89bc9…
08-11 20:03:04	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in July?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x16449c…
08-11 12:34:45	bitcoin above 62k on august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$22	0xc88b1c…
08-10 22:35:49	bitcoin above 68k on august 11 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2dc96b…
08-10 18:54:51	Will CZ post 160-179 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xe4fca2…
08-10 13:49:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 11?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x613c5a…
08-10 11:12:39	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc257b3…
08-09 13:42:55	bitcoin above 60k on august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	35	100¢	$34	0x7ecd5e…
08-09 10:19:36	bitcoin above 60k on august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x55beda…
08-09 04:56:15	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 9?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8b5c60…
08-09 01:24:16	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 9?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3152e3…
08-08 18:07:45	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C or higher on August 9?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfed4ee…
08-08 08:35:39	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 8?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x36152a…
08-08 03:23:15	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on August 8?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xc545e9…
08-07 19:41:10	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 8?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xcfce0c…