Lean-Rationale — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.25K

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

69.5%

Resolved

3,630

Trades

11,320

lifetime

Volume

$110.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-02

last 10-14 23:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 90 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 66% -$1,140

Other

1% 53% -$110

Sports

0% 50% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 713 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No		+4	$2	0¢	$0	-$2	06-04 06:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-30 16:00 UTC	70	$1.5K	2,348	2,024	+324	Up	-$424	08-30 17:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 19:05 UTC	87	$903	1,757	0	+1,757	Down	+$54	08-22 19:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 17:35 UTC	75	$886	1,806	0	+1,806	Down	+$91	08-22 17:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	19	$849	1,205	504	+701	Down	+$65	09-02 06:54
XRP Up or Down - September 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	25	$719	707	701	+6	Down	+$14	09-01 15:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 05:45 UTC	40	$675	1,399	0	+1,399	Up	-$75	08-23 05:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 05:40 UTC	51	$614	1,200	0	+1,200	Down	-$14	08-23 05:42
Solana Up or Down - September 3, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	18	$592	905	300	+605	Down	+$78	09-03 05:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	25	$579	677	525	+152	Up	+$70	09-02 00:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 05:30 UTC	26	$552	1,200	0	+1,200	Up	+$48	08-23 05:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 05:35 UTC	36	$536	1,005	0	+1,005	Down	+$264	08-23 05:37
Hyperliquid Up or Down - September 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	24	$531	1,061	32	+1,029	Up	+$14	09-01 11:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	16	$507	1,790	0	+1,790	Down	+$9	09-01 19:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	13	$506	932	139	+793	Down	+$81	09-04 21:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	29	$497	1,023	0	+1,023	Up	+$39	09-02 21:46
Hyperliquid Up or Down - September 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	20	$492	959	99	+860	Up	+$32	09-02 14:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	51	$482	701	268	+433	Down	-$10	09-04 07:36
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	41	$482	345	342	+3	Yes	-$8	05-08 16:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 05:55 UTC	23	$479	801	0	+801	Down	-$79	08-23 05:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 06:00 UTC	42	$465	1,104	0	+1,104	Down	-$161	08-23 06:03
DOGE Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-31 20:00 UTC	17	$463	790	144	+646	Down	+$11	08-31 21:41
Hyperliquid Up or Down - September 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	21	$446	699	238	+461	Down	+$15	09-01 15:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	46	$433	619	273	+346	Down	-$14	09-05 01:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	19	$429	773	260	+513	Up	+$84	09-01 23:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	23	$411	679	251	+428	Up	+$12	09-03 11:08
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-31 04:00 UTC	23	$410	868	51	+817	Up	-$24	08-31 06:30
Solana Up or Down - September 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	45	$409	616	178	+438	Down	+$32	09-05 03:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 06:05 UTC	23	$398	800	0	+800	Down	+$202	08-23 06:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	24	$397	757	118	+639	Down	+$109	09-03 05:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 05:50 UTC	37	$394	925	0	+925	Down	-$70	08-23 05:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 23:30:03	ethereum up or down october 14 2026 7pm et	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xe5866b…
10-14 23:30:00	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 7pm et	Down	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xa6e3ae…
10-14 22:30:00	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 6pm et	Down	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x87e0e6…
10-14 21:30:00	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 5pm et	Up	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xc9a89e…
10-14 21:30:00	ethereum up or down october 14 2026 5pm et	Up	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x2aece2…
10-14 20:30:03	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x716a74…
10-14 20:30:01	ethereum up or down october 14 2026 4pm et	Down	BUY	14	68¢	$10	0x772c92…
10-14 19:30:01	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	14	68¢	$10	0xe90c81…
10-14 19:30:01	ethereum up or down october 14 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x7b67b1…
10-14 18:30:00	ethereum up or down october 14 2026 2pm et	Down	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xcc893b…
10-14 18:30:00	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 2pm et	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x79aceb…
10-14 17:30:00	ethereum up or down october 14 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x996e97…
10-14 17:30:00	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x82c5fa…
10-13 21:30:01	Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xb6c915…
10-13 21:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	12	78¢	$10	0x04c3be…
10-13 20:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	13	74¢	$10	0x5dd675…
10-13 20:30:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x547a7f…
10-13 19:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xfea498…
10-13 19:30:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	15	63¢	$10	0x2ab37d…
10-13 17:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	12	79¢	$10	0x755ba1…
10-12 23:30:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x29afd0…
10-12 23:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	17	61¢	$10	0xf2dce1…
10-12 21:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xa87e08…
10-12 21:30:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xa7e756…
10-12 20:29:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xf12655…
10-12 20:29:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	10	94¢	$10	0x2cedf5…
10-12 19:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xdc82ef…
10-12 19:30:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x9ad860…
10-12 17:30:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	12	77¢	$10	0xc21521…
10-12 17:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	17	62¢	$10	0x3b53b1…
10-08 01:19:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x56e28f…
09-22 06:09:27	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-22 06:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x059b06…
09-22 05:54:30	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-22 05:50 UTC	Up	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x708cea…
09-22 05:54:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-22 05:50 UTC	Up	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x96e609…
09-22 05:34:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-22 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	21	46¢	$10	0xfea497…
09-22 05:04:28	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-22 05:00 UTC	Down	BUY	17	55¢	$10	0xc953fe…
09-22 04:29:28	Ethereum Up or Down - September 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xabc3a9…
09-22 04:24:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-22 04:20 UTC	Up	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xcff01e…
09-22 04:24:28	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-22 04:20 UTC	Down	BUY	12	76¢	$9	0x90bb6a…
09-21 07:24:39	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 07:20 UTC	Up	BUY	13	73¢	$10	0x4c451a…
09-21 04:04:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xa681fd…
09-21 03:59:12	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe260b1…
09-21 03:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2e881c…
09-21 03:44:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x256390…
09-21 03:44:13	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x09958e…
09-21 03:39:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xa074dc…
09-21 03:29:13	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x16f7a6…
09-21 03:24:13	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x0383da…
09-21 02:59:22	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	86¢	$10	0xa5759b…
09-21 02:59:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 02:55 UTC	Up	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xd3362a…
09-21 02:54:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x8f9d5e…
09-21 02:54:14	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x2e3c0c…
09-21 02:49:13	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe731c4…
09-21 02:49:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x9f750e…
09-21 01:44:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xc99251…
09-21 01:39:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x65bb91…
09-21 01:39:37	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0xf938aa…
09-21 01:18:59	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xb17c7a…
09-21 01:09:01	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xd5e6d3…
09-21 01:08:59	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	41	96¢	$40	0x9f0c56…
09-21 01:08:59	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x6e1191…
09-21 01:04:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x352770…
09-21 00:59:38	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x6b19f7…
09-21 00:59:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xf72935…
09-21 00:59:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x0d2428…
09-21 00:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xe8e587…
09-21 00:44:38	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	13	74¢	$10	0x86802e…
09-21 00:39:04	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	14	97¢	$14	0x37750b…
09-20 23:49:44	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	11	82¢	$9	0x5b8b19…
09-20 23:49:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	11	82¢	$9	0x3947b2…
09-20 23:24:01	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xcded1e…
09-20 22:29:01	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xdffe8d…
09-20 22:29:01	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0xd1230d…
09-20 22:29:01	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x4ad241…
09-20 21:09:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xdd551c…
09-20 21:09:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	20	97¢	$20	0xd13d42…
09-20 21:09:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x09cac6…
09-20 21:08:59	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xf39faa…
09-20 21:08:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0xa4e159…
09-20 20:49:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x5867ec…
09-20 20:44:01	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x76ec4f…
09-20 20:24:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x00acd4…
09-20 20:19:38	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	11	86¢	$10	0x4ce02e…
09-20 19:49:05	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xf2aaa4…
09-20 19:49:05	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xc3210d…
09-20 19:49:04	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0x0c1411…
09-20 19:49:02	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x0cf620…
09-20 19:39:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x684d3e…
09-20 18:59:01	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xb9fead…
09-20 18:24:00	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xcc5266…
09-20 18:09:01	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x1b3132…
09-20 18:09:01	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	20	97¢	$20	0x0aab21…
09-20 18:09:00	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	20	97¢	$20	0x660ec5…
09-20 18:09:00	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x13991f…
09-20 17:59:01	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xe5d6cd…
09-20 17:59:01	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xbf7392…
09-20 17:59:01	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xb71ad1…
09-20 17:59:00	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0xb78721…
09-20 17:34:00	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x978020…
09-20 17:09:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	43	94¢	$40	0xea8d5a…