Third-Fluke — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$87

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

7.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$108

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 07-14 20:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Other

65% 0% -$70

Crypto

35% 20% -$17

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-14).

Open positions Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	3	$15	32	+32	Up	-$15	05-06 14:09
BNB Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	2	$10	1,000	+1,000	Up	-$10	05-06 12:19
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	1	$10	62	+62	No	-$10	05-30 17:15
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	1	$5	16	+16	No	-$5	06-23 06:58
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3?	1	$5	200	+200	No	-$5	05-03 12:09
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$5	13	+13	No	-$5	05-06 12:23
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	1	$5	25	+25	No	-$5	06-23 06:58
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	1	$5	62	+62	No	-$5	06-21 15:42
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	1	$5	10	+10	No	-$5	06-21 15:41
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$5	15	+15	No	-$5	05-06 12:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 18:00 UTC	1	$5	10	+10	Down	+$5	06-04 18:01
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	1	$5	71	+71	No	-$5	06-21 15:43
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	1	$5	21	+21	No	-$5	06-21 15:44
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	1	$5	22	+22	No	-$5	06-21 15:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	1	$3	300	+300	Up	-$3	04-26 16:50
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	1	$3	11	+11	Yes	+$8	05-06 12:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	1	$2	200	+200	Up	-$2	04-26 16:31
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?	1	$2	44	+44	No	-$2	07-14 20:47
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26?	1	$2	34	+34	No	-$2	04-27 03:26
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 3?	1	$1	1,000	+1,000	No	-$1	05-03 12:10
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3?	1	$1	500	+500	No	-$1	05-03 12:09
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	1	$1	12	+12	No	-$1	05-06 12:26
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	1	$1	25	+25	No	-$1	05-06 12:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	1	$1	14	+14	No	-$1	05-06 12:25
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3?	1	$1	199	+199	No	-$1	05-03 12:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-14 20:47:34	Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	44	4¢	$2	0xd6bec2…
06-23 06:58:34	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xddf9fe…
06-23 06:58:16	Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x93f434…
06-21 15:44:26	Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x52bba1…
06-21 15:43:17	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xe5281b…
06-21 15:42:47	Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x10d4d6…
06-21 15:42:19	Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xff0e3e…
06-21 15:41:20	Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xfe35f7…
06-04 18:01:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x8d141f…
05-30 17:15:43	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x9e0d6b…
05-06 14:09:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x5e48de…
05-06 14:09:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x981b0e…
05-06 14:02:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xba770e…
05-06 12:27:12	Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xf75e28…
05-06 12:26:52	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xba6ec5…
05-06 12:25:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xfd559f…
05-06 12:24:04	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xef9924…
05-06 12:23:28	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0xaf1683…
05-06 12:22:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x16bff6…
05-06 12:19:30	BNB Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x4d88a6…
05-06 12:19:10	BNB Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x91308d…
05-03 12:11:00	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3?	Yes	BUY	199	0¢	$1	0x50ef32…
05-03 12:10:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 3?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x00c41a…
05-03 12:09:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xdb96eb…
05-03 12:09:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0xef6930…
04-27 03:26:08	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26?	Yes	BUY	34	6¢	$2	0x45cde7…
04-26 16:50:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0x96e92d…
04-26 16:31:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xe75abc…