Pale-Bellows — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$84

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

65.3%

Resolved

2,095

Trades

3,017

lifetime

Volume

$7.49K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-22

last 11-12 15:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 99 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 64% +$18

Other

1% 20% -$91

Sports

0% 20% -$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 150 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	—	+2	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	11-12 17:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	1	$80	138	0	+138	No	-$80	07-08 10:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 14:35 UTC	1	$30	35	0	+35	Down	-$30	08-07 14:37
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 17:45 UTC	5	$24	32	0	+32	Up	-$1	08-21 17:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	3	$21	37	0	+37	Down	-$9	08-23 09:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-28 20:05 UTC	4	$21	29	0	+29	Up	-$4	08-28 20:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	3	$21	13	13	+0	Up	+$5	10-26 21:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	2	$20	47	0	+47	Down	+$27	10-26 21:48
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-26 15:00 UTC	3	$20	37	0	+37	Up	+$5	08-26 15:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	5	$20	21	21	+0	Up	+$2	09-09 19:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	5	$19	33	0	+33	Up	+$14	10-24 18:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	1	$19	33	0	+33	Down	-$19	10-25 22:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	1	$19	34	0	+34	Down	+$15	10-24 19:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	1	$19	36	0	+36	Down	-$19	10-25 20:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	1	$19	32	0	+32	Up	+$14	10-25 22:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-26 12:45 UTC	4	$18	26	0	+26	Up	-$1	08-26 12:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-29 20:00 UTC	4	$18	30	0	+30	Up	-$2	08-29 20:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	2	$17	29	0	+29	Up	-$17	10-26 21:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-28 20:30 UTC	2	$17	21	0	+21	Down	-$1	08-28 20:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	4	$16	19	12	+8	Up	+$4	10-29 17:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	2	$16	10	10	+0	Down	+$4	10-29 17:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	2	$15	10	10	+0	Down	+$5	11-10 11:21
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 09:15 UTC	2	$15	22	0	+22	Down	-$10	08-20 09:26
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-24 14:00 UTC	2	$15	19	0	+19	Up	-$1	08-24 14:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-25 08:05 UTC	2	$15	18	0	+18	Up	-$5	08-25 08:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 14:55 UTC	2	$15	16	0	+16	Up	+$1	08-19 14:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 15:35 UTC	3	$15	18	0	+18	Up	-$2	08-27 15:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-28 22:00 UTC	3	$15	20	0	+20	Up	-$1	08-28 22:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	2	$15	10	10	+0	Down	+$5	11-10 11:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	3	$15	14	10	+4	Down	+$5	10-28 20:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	2	$15	12	12	+0	Up	+$9	10-26 19:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-12 17:10:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x758080…
11-12 17:09:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x85cd4b…
11-12 17:08:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x2ed203…
11-12 17:07:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xd9bf1a…
11-12 17:05:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x379c9a…
11-12 17:03:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	SELL	4	88¢	$3	0x92e4cf…
11-12 17:00:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0x162279…
11-12 16:58:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x92e719…
11-12 16:55:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x7eb3a3…
11-12 16:50:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x742a30…
11-12 16:46:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x836cbf…
11-12 16:45:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xaf5200…
11-12 16:39:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xafdd3d…
11-12 16:37:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	3	90¢	$2	0x03c376…
11-12 16:35:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x8ce343…
11-12 16:31:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x5fcb96…
11-12 15:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x85ff00…
11-12 15:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x71dd3c…
11-12 15:21:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	6	44¢	$3	0x6508ec…
11-12 15:16:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x374e55…
11-12 15:11:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xaf78c0…
11-12 15:05:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x9d34b9…
11-12 14:55:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xe17b6b…
11-12 14:49:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x9edb09…
11-12 14:30:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0x0c224c…
11-12 14:27:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x5f2ad1…
11-12 14:26:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x8858c4…
11-12 14:25:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xdc13b2…
11-12 14:20:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x8cba3b…
11-12 14:16:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xb79962…
11-12 14:09:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0x8209d8…
11-12 14:05:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x34fe28…
11-12 14:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xbfb041…
11-12 14:01:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x5abc5f…
11-12 13:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xe9be2f…
11-12 13:16:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x68fea3…
11-12 13:15:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x7fd727…
11-12 13:12:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xa72d71…
11-12 13:11:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xc7ef8e…
11-12 13:01:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x3c2584…
11-12 12:15:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xadb205…
11-12 12:15:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xc0ecdc…
11-12 12:12:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x619860…
11-12 12:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x101a71…
11-12 12:07:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x84319f…
11-12 12:06:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x04c52e…
11-12 12:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xc76f38…
11-12 12:00:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x548f03…
11-12 11:55:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xeaf172…
11-12 11:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x1dd1b0…
11-12 11:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xde3e9a…
11-12 11:47:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x53a422…
11-12 11:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x33fa6e…
11-12 11:22:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x413997…
11-12 10:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x0c64e6…
11-12 10:56:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xf2805e…
11-12 10:55:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	4	92¢	$3	0x936383…
11-12 10:45:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x214f0c…
11-12 10:30:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xd6c01b…
11-12 10:30:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x8061e9…
11-12 10:25:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x5d127e…
11-12 10:20:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xaf0c0a…
11-12 09:05:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0xdf936f…
11-11 21:36:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0x929f4e…
11-11 21:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xb22741…
11-11 21:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0x255ded…
11-11 21:01:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x42c983…
11-11 21:01:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0x634df0…
11-11 21:01:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x1028b5…
11-11 20:55:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x44d7e3…
11-11 18:15:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x511740…
11-11 17:45:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x1f5f4e…
11-11 17:35:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x783758…
11-11 17:33:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x9f89f8…
11-11 17:20:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x6c0d4e…
11-11 17:18:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x6c16ef…
11-11 17:15:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x6ffb87…
11-11 17:12:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xde6122…
11-11 15:29:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x295124…
11-11 15:25:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x170291…
11-11 15:20:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x7bbe5d…
11-11 15:15:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x5fc8cd…
11-11 15:01:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x6e14e6…
11-11 15:00:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x94fcde…
11-11 14:19:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x914903…
11-11 14:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xd02d99…
11-11 13:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x8ff15d…
11-11 13:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xa172cf…
11-11 12:50:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0xd4db56…
11-11 12:32:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x061510…
11-11 12:31:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x3219f9…
11-11 12:25:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x7525a7…
11-11 12:24:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xcf5d50…
11-11 12:05:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x772729…
11-11 12:02:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xc54cb6…
11-11 11:51:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x39a4a2…
11-11 11:45:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x39171e…
11-11 11:40:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xe672ce…
11-11 11:35:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xcdb4a1…
11-11 11:32:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x9aa95c…