Cautious-Close — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.5%

Resolved

652

Trades

3,246

lifetime

Volume

$7.43K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 05-17 07:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 78% +$14

Other

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 283 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$208	52,000	52,000	+0	open	—	01-21 06:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	3	$20	11	11	+0	Down	+$2	05-13 16:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	2	$19	11	11	+0	open	—	05-01 12:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	2	$19	11	11	+0	open	—	05-01 16:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	2	$19	11	11	+0	open	—	05-01 13:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	04-30 20:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	05-01 00:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	2	$19	11	11	+0	open	—	05-01 03:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	04-30 10:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	05-01 10:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	2	$17	9	9	+0	open	—	05-14 10:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	2	$16	9	9	+0	open	—	04-29 18:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	2	$15	8	8	+0	open	—	04-30 00:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	2	$15	8	8	+0	open	—	04-29 20:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	5	$15	9	9	+0	open	—	04-28 04:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	2	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	05-14 10:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	5	$14	9	8	+0	open	—	04-28 03:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	2	$14	8	7	+0	open	—	05-14 10:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	2	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	05-15 09:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	2	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	05-14 07:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	2	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	05-14 22:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	4	$14	11	11	+0	open	—	04-28 03:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	2	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	05-14 10:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	2	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	05-15 10:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	2	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	05-14 09:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	2	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	05-14 10:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	2	$14	7	7	+0	open	—	05-15 22:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	2	$13	7	7	+0	open	—	05-14 09:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	2	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	05-14 10:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	2	$13	7	7	+0	open	—	05-14 09:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-17 07:18:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xbe7fa7…
05-17 07:17:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x196534…
05-17 07:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x4d8336…
05-17 07:03:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x94f85b…
05-17 05:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x06c38d…
05-17 05:42:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xbb9dd0…
05-17 05:09:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xb7e53a…
05-17 05:06:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xcf61b0…
05-17 04:53:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x5fd383…
05-17 04:52:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xec0536…
05-17 04:04:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	SELL	2	76¢	$2	0x384967…
05-17 04:04:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x16d355…
05-17 03:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x56cad8…
05-17 03:43:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xb50b2a…
05-17 03:34:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x2e3937…
05-17 03:33:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xdeaf00…
05-17 03:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0x1389c6…
05-17 03:28:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xeb8d65…
05-17 02:52:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xffb552…
05-17 02:39:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xdb4c6a…
05-17 02:37:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x054705…
05-17 02:23:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xafb3c8…
05-17 02:22:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x778f62…
05-17 01:50:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xe60fb2…
05-17 01:48:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x233f7f…
05-17 01:33:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0x604c3e…
05-17 01:33:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x5b9176…
05-17 01:29:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x605cdf…
05-17 01:26:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xd92020…
05-17 01:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0xf0c296…
05-17 01:01:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x0449a1…
05-17 00:53:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	SELL	2	78¢	$2	0xc40c9c…
05-17 00:51:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x723ce7…
05-17 00:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x42e843…
05-17 00:32:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x942f79…
05-17 00:25:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x6581db…
05-17 00:22:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x4fe175…
05-17 00:19:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x48e631…
05-17 00:18:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x3209b9…
05-16 23:58:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x4f8385…
05-16 23:57:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x46cb4e…
05-16 23:08:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xa4b77c…
05-16 23:07:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xb3fbdf…
05-16 22:47:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x326313…
05-16 22:47:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	70¢	$2	0x3436d8…
05-16 21:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xdefc78…
05-16 21:53:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x20c357…
05-16 21:44:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	72¢	$2	0x38c945…
05-16 21:13:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x1e57ec…
05-16 20:43:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0xd43634…
05-16 20:41:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x81ce53…
05-16 19:42:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	74¢	$2	0xa02b83…
05-16 19:41:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x2d6847…
05-16 18:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xaca927…
05-16 18:56:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xe2c8ad…
05-16 18:54:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0xfc3da5…
05-16 18:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x0ecbc3…
05-16 18:12:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x9d3301…
05-16 18:12:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	73¢	$2	0x644f20…
05-16 17:47:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0x22f6b1…
05-16 17:46:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x2a47ac…
05-16 17:22:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x7d5af7…
05-16 17:21:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x0877b7…
05-16 16:55:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x4a5fa2…
05-16 16:52:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x6c87d7…
05-16 16:44:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xa1960a…
05-16 16:41:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xaae1d5…
05-16 16:37:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	SELL	2	73¢	$2	0x8b4c36…
05-16 16:37:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	74¢	$2	0x7854e8…
05-16 15:18:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0xefaf42…
05-16 15:17:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	72¢	$2	0x900b04…
05-16 14:54:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x0d5fb3…
05-16 14:53:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x8eba95…
05-16 14:47:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x84c8ed…
05-16 14:46:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x45daa2…
05-16 14:28:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0xd0d6e9…
05-16 14:27:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x5f48b9…
05-16 13:03:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xeeabd9…
05-16 13:02:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xcab864…
05-16 12:19:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xb3e142…
05-16 12:16:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x0481ce…
05-16 12:04:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xf8afa2…
05-16 12:04:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xeb4685…
05-16 11:52:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x134841…
05-16 11:52:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x93ff60…
05-16 11:39:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xe93ebd…
05-16 11:36:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x9fa66f…
05-16 11:28:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x24cc48…
05-16 11:27:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x2e7bfa…
05-16 11:19:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x582208…
05-16 11:17:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x47ea62…
05-16 10:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x4a7c36…
05-16 10:58:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xfaf3f6…
05-16 10:53:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xa8c743…
05-16 10:53:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x373310…
05-16 10:49:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xd306d3…
05-16 10:47:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xfeb3ca…
05-16 10:19:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	SELL	2	33¢	$1	0x4f9554…
05-16 10:17:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0xb6df55…
05-16 10:13:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	27¢	$1	0xed4919…