Palatable-Ephemeris — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$27

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.0%

Resolved

111

Trades

188

lifetime

Volume

$279

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-02

last 07-02 08:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Other

37% 53% -$3

Politics

30% 33% -$13

Crypto

28% 57% -$7

Sports

4% 33% -$4

Tech

2% 100% +$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-02).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	8	$13	54	6	+47	Yes	-$4	03-09 21:42
ethereum up or down on february 14	2	$11	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	02-14 16:15
ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-14 13:00 UTC	4	$10	7	7	+0	Up	+$0	02-14 17:01
another us government shutdown by february 14	3	$10	8	8	+0	No	+$6	02-14 11:58
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$9	5	5	+0	No	+$1	03-14 17:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$9	7	7	+0	No	+$1	04-28 13:54
will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by february 20	2	$7	13	13	+0	Yes	-$1	02-14 12:37
spx opens up or down on february 12 2026	2	$6	4	4	+0	Up	+$2	02-12 14:53
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	4	$5	2,106	0	+2,106	Yes	-$5	02-03 12:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-14 13:00 UTC	3	$5	3	3	+0	Down	+$1	02-14 13:05
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?	2	$5	3	3	+0	Yes	+$1	05-11 14:44
spx up or down on march 2 2026	5	$5	8	6	+2	Up	$0	03-02 18:10
epl mac ful 2026 02 11 mac	2	$5	3	3	+0	Yes	+$1	02-11 21:28
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$5	3	3	+0	Yes	+$1	03-02 08:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-14 12:40 UTC	4	$5	4	4	+0	Up	-$1	02-14 12:44
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$5	13	13	+0	No	-$1	02-22 08:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-14 12:50 UTC	2	$4	3	3	+0	Down	+$1	02-14 12:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-14 16:55 UTC	3	$4	7	2	+4	Up	+$0	02-14 17:01
nba orl sac 2026 02 19	2	$4	3	3	+0	Magic	+$0	02-18 21:03
will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	4	$4	76	0	+76	No	-$4	03-22 21:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-14 13:05 UTC	1	$4	5	0	+5	Up	+$1	02-14 13:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-14 16:40 UTC	3	$4	3	2	+1	Up	$0	02-14 16:47
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	2	$4	4	4	+0	Yes	$0	07-02 08:49
epl tot new 2026 02 10 new	2	$3	2	2	+0	Yes	+$1	02-10 22:13
lol ig1 jdg 2026 02 03	2	$3	2	2	+0	JD Gaming	+$1	02-03 14:22
will the next official us iran meeting be in oman	3	$3	1,001	1	+1,000	Yes	-$1	02-09 23:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 18:15 UTC	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	03-15 18:20
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$3	6	6	+0	Yes	-$1	02-24 21:34
mwoh can fin 2026 02 20	2	$3	2	2	+0	Canada	+$1	02-20 18:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-14 17:30 UTC	3	$3	4	2	+2	Down	-$1	02-14 17:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 08:49:13	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0xb2d885…
05-27 09:42:53	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xe95f2f…
05-27 09:41:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x03ebac…
05-27 09:40:24	Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xba2a14…
05-11 14:45:35	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x889f3a…
05-11 14:44:09	Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xf84db6…
04-28 13:56:48	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x37f39a…
04-28 13:56:40	Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x285483…
04-28 13:54:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x2da571…
03-29 21:10:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x3f095f…
03-22 21:03:59	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xe5150f…
03-22 21:02:21	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xc1baf8…
03-22 21:01:47	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd0aafa…
03-22 20:56:03	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xb732b3…
03-20 08:16:27	lol g2 fox1 2026 03 20	BNK FEARX	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x8cceba…
03-20 08:15:41	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	Yes	SELL	3	18¢	$0	0xd7438e…
03-20 08:15:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	3	26¢	$1	0x2482af…
03-15 18:29:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 18:25 UTC	Down	BUY	4	44¢	$2	0x92386a…
03-15 18:20:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 18:15 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x407d9e…
03-15 18:18:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$1	0xea5cad…
03-15 18:18:01	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0x69a258…
03-14 18:24:15	spx opens up or down on march 16 2026	Down	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x346ffd…
03-14 18:01:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xbb61bc…
03-14 18:01:05	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xc9c4de…
03-14 18:00:19	will the us invade iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x2d140b…
03-14 17:59:23	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xe7687b…
03-09 21:42:37	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0xe2e118…
03-05 21:38:05	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xbc30e4…
03-05 21:37:47	U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x070f15…
03-05 21:27:07	will iran strike israel on march 6	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x57d985…
03-05 21:18:29	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x433347…
03-05 21:18:09	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x2ccb0e…
03-05 17:45:55	gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb09b6e…
03-05 11:57:25	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xb26d19…
03-05 11:46:39	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xdb0148…
03-05 11:45:09	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0x5a6051…
03-04 17:41:37	will iran strike cyprus in march	Yes	SELL	3	18¢	$1	0xe0b88e…
03-03 17:53:23	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x84c25c…
03-03 17:53:01	will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	16	3¢	$0	0xa103ea…
03-03 17:49:57	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x5c1a78…
03-03 08:45:19	will iran strike cyprus in march	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x08afca…
03-02 18:11:57	gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xee6ec7…
03-02 18:10:47	spx up or down on march 2 2026	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x74a4fc…
03-02 18:10:41	spx up or down on march 2 2026	Down	SELL	1	34¢	$0	0x7cff0f…
03-02 08:43:53	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x160a9e…
03-01 14:56:31	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xea146d…
03-01 14:29:25	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xd6240d…
03-01 14:27:53	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 2 645 466 285 492	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x158583…
02-28 18:05:05	spx up or down on march 2 2026	Up	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0xa8a0a0…
02-28 17:15:31	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x953235…
02-28 15:20:37	spx up or down on march 2 2026	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xe26e0a…
02-28 15:20:05	spx up or down on march 2 2026	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x5e8e9e…
02-28 12:44:11	hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x38d40f…
02-28 12:30:25	will marco rubio visit israel by march 2	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xa460fa…
02-28 12:28:37	U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xc0c9dd…
02-28 11:45:23	will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x76d7d2…
02-28 09:11:41	will the us tariff rate on china be between 15 and 25 on march 31	Yes	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0xf3e3ac…
02-24 21:35:02	US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xe11566…
02-24 21:34:20	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0x466453…
02-22 14:40:12	will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x8d39f6…
02-22 12:38:38	will trump talk to volodymyr zelenskyy in february	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x789e95…
02-22 12:37:06	will the us tariff rate on china be between 15 and 25 on march 31	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xd7f05e…
02-22 12:33:56	nba cle okc 2026 02 22	Cavaliers	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x1bcaf7…
02-22 12:19:10	lol t1 dk 2026 02 22	T1	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x6bf9cd…
02-22 08:57:58	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	Yes	SELL	13	12¢	$2	0xa5f2cc…
02-21 08:11:20	will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x8bbf8f…
02-20 18:30:52	cs2 furia mglz 2026 02 20	FURIA	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x8438b9…
02-20 18:29:04	lal bil elc 2026 02 20 bil	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x83701f…
02-20 18:28:08	mwoh can fin 2026 02 20	Canada	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x89e106…
02-20 17:19:02	nba mil nop 2026 02 20	Pelicans	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x5a680e…
02-20 17:18:00	mwoh can fin 2026 02 20	Canada	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x897e90…
02-20 17:15:54	spx up or down on february 20 2026	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xaa801f…
02-20 14:37:58	cs2 mouz navi 2026 02 20	MOUZ	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x4c1ad7…
02-20 14:37:42	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xe409ea…
02-20 10:38:36	cs2 ecf tdk 2026 02 20	TDK	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x68bb91…
02-20 10:38:08	bitcoin above 68k on february 20	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x69bba2…
02-20 10:33:28	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x22961c…
02-20 10:33:04	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x849803…
02-20 08:46:20	cs2 fal2 prv 2026 02 20	Team Falcons	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x4b5e98…
02-19 17:10:14	nba hou cha 2026 02 19	Rockets	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xf0d40b…
02-19 17:05:46	spx opens up or down on february 19 2026	Down	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5290a2…
02-19 10:49:04	spx opens up or down on february 19 2026	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xbd27c0…
02-19 10:48:06	ucl atm1 bru 2026 02 24 atm1	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xf37595…
02-18 21:04:52	ucl atm1 bru 2026 02 24 atm1	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xbdf6c7…
02-18 21:04:06	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x96ac70…
02-18 21:03:24	nba orl sac 2026 02 19	Magic	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0x9a2a4c…
02-18 10:57:22	epl wol ars 2026 02 18 ars	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x8f936d…
02-17 21:18:15	ucl ben rma 2026 02 17 rma	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x4184ab…
02-17 21:17:29	spx up or down on february 17 2026	Up	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xdbbe38…
02-17 19:40:35	spx up or down on february 17 2026	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xc05de2…
02-17 19:39:51	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0xb38c4a…
02-16 11:15:53	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x62ebd2…
02-15 17:34:19	mwoh usa ger 2026 02 15	USA	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x9d660a…
02-15 17:32:55	will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	No	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0x959310…
02-15 17:26:53	nba orl sac 2026 02 19	Magic	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x3036db…
02-14 17:54:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-14 17:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xfa179c…
02-14 17:50:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-14 17:45 UTC	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb83439…
02-14 17:47:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-14 17:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xaecfad…
02-14 17:44:43	cbb kan iowast 2026 02 14	Iowa State Cyclones	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xe9f620…
02-14 17:43:33	val gm fnc1 2026 02 14	Fnatic	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x65941a…