Firm-Belfry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$241

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

85.8%

Resolved

202

Trades

347

lifetime

Volume

$18.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$53

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 11-02 11:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 89% -$127

Other

2% 71% -$51

Sports

2% 40% -$74

Tech

1% 100% +$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	5	$507	275	275	+0	Up	+$37	05-04 18:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	4	$500	554	0	+554	Down	-$500	05-04 19:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	5	$440	547	0	+547	Up	+$65	05-04 19:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	4	$375	394	0	+394	Down	+$19	05-04 19:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	4	$300	330	0	+330	Up	+$30	05-04 19:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	5	$290	1,091	0	+1,091	Down	+$17	05-04 19:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	3	$275	312	0	+312	Down	+$37	05-04 19:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	3	$235	405	0	+405	Up	-$48	05-05 09:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	1	$224	227	0	+227	Up	+$2	11-02 10:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	5	$223	505	0	+505	Down	+$30	05-05 09:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	5	$215	409	0	+409	Up	+$16	05-05 09:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	4	$214	116	116	+0	Up	+$14	05-04 13:14
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	2	$212	224	0	+224	Yes	+$12	07-01 11:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	2	$210	229	0	+229	Down	+$19	05-04 14:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	3	$208	238	0	+238	Down	+$30	05-04 18:53
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$203	292	172	+120	Yes	+$25	06-11 07:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	3	$197	230	0	+230	Down	+$33	05-04 13:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	3	$190	537	0	+537	Down	+$14	05-05 09:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	2	$186	97	97	+0	Down	+$6	04-30 13:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	3	$185	206	0	+206	Down	+$21	05-04 18:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	2	$180	223	0	+223	Down	-$58	05-14 13:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	4	$180	357	0	+357	Down	-$21	05-05 09:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	3	$180	204	0	+204	Down	+$24	05-14 12:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	3	$177	120	67	+52	Up	+$9	05-02 22:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	2	$175	2,695	0	+2,695	Up	+$20	05-04 21:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	2	$170	177	0	+177	Down	+$7	05-03 21:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	2	$163	173	0	+173	Up	+$10	05-04 14:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	2	$162	90	90	+0	Up	+$12	05-04 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	1	$160	163	0	+163	Up	+$3	05-04 14:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	1	$160	174	0	+174	Up	+$14	05-04 21:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 11:11:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	197	76¢	$150	0xa97639…
11-02 11:01:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0xb29c41…
11-02 10:57:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0xc33fc4…
11-02 10:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	14	14¢	$2	0xe8d534…
11-02 10:57:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0xf8c175…
11-02 10:56:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0xd598ff…
11-02 10:52:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xf727d3…
11-02 10:48:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	227	99¢	$224	0xd635c4…
11-02 10:47:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xa0e246…
11-02 10:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	58	1¢	$1	0x4d4dc0…
11-01 13:07:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x714976…
11-01 13:06:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	38	79¢	$30	0xc43ede…
11-01 13:03:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0x3a3059…
11-01 13:02:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xc90a72…
11-01 12:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	39	76¢	$30	0x563ffe…
11-01 12:55:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0x4233db…
11-01 12:54:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xbc8fc1…
11-01 12:53:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x3190a4…
11-01 12:52:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x52fbcb…
11-01 12:47:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x90fbee…
11-01 12:47:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x07cd52…
11-01 12:42:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x471e0a…
11-01 12:38:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xad1f18…
11-01 12:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0x7b96b8…
11-01 12:27:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xc8f6ec…
07-19 21:42:55	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x33cd4e…
07-19 21:39:31	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x1da8e6…
07-01 11:19:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	201	95¢	$190	0xa14eca…
07-01 10:54:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0x78f64f…
07-01 10:47:44	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	184	19¢	$35	0x017950…
07-01 10:46:28	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	183	33¢	$60	0x65fd6e…
06-11 07:12:46	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	120	82¢	$99	0x01e7dd…
05-29 11:03:25	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	172	31¢	$54	0x5e43b8…
05-27 01:37:29	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	172	29¢	$50	0x794827…
05-14 13:21:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	250	12¢	$30	0xe75f72…
05-14 13:18:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0xf77f47…
05-14 13:18:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0xcd1729…
05-14 13:16:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	101	79¢	$80	0xbd83d3…
05-14 13:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	81	86¢	$70	0xfbd40d…
05-14 13:11:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	72	28¢	$20	0x2b555e…
05-14 13:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0x138d6b…
05-14 12:59:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x79f4d8…
05-14 12:58:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	113	88¢	$100	0x3faaff…
05-14 12:56:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	65	12¢	$8	0x32dd5e…
05-14 12:55:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	42	72¢	$30	0x038df3…
05-14 12:54:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x02cdec…
05-14 12:53:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x63cea9…
05-14 12:53:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x8516d8…
05-14 12:47:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x81613b…
05-14 12:42:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0x64d825…
05-14 12:38:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0x3601fb…
05-14 12:36:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	49	61¢	$30	0x5272b2…
05-14 12:35:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x239499…
05-14 12:33:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xc757a8…
05-14 12:32:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	43	69¢	$30	0xacc928…
05-14 12:27:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x132090…
05-14 12:26:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x9a002b…
05-14 12:21:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x7187a3…
05-14 10:48:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	43	14¢	$6	0x7af000…
05-14 10:47:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	38	78¢	$30	0x27e0d7…
05-14 10:29:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	43	14¢	$6	0x619142…
05-14 10:27:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0xfbbc3f…
05-14 10:25:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xb4b3d8…
05-14 10:25:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	74	85¢	$62	0x824459…
05-14 10:25:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	26	85¢	$23	0x77a161…
05-14 10:23:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x50ce31…
05-14 10:19:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xdf08eb…
05-14 10:18:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x383ffb…
05-14 10:17:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x1e9540…
05-14 10:16:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0x6980a4…
05-14 10:14:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x7cccdf…
05-14 10:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x221fd3…
05-14 10:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0xd77215…
05-14 10:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0xe6ccce…
05-14 10:12:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x693fe5…
05-14 10:11:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x2ea2c6…
05-14 10:09:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xafb656…
05-14 10:07:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	92¢	$24	0xa06b97…
05-14 10:03:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xaa139e…
05-14 10:01:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0x513fe8…
05-14 10:00:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x79a22b…
05-14 09:56:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xb4bcea…
05-12 11:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0xf82706…
05-12 11:41:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	55	11¢	$6	0x09eaff…
05-12 11:41:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	46	87¢	$40	0x69c747…
05-12 11:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	44	9¢	$4	0x0ef12e…
05-12 11:28:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0x70efc7…
05-12 11:23:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0xf3b72e…
05-05 10:03:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	48	81¢	$39	0x6005ba…
05-05 10:02:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xbe3fdb…
05-05 10:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x425679…
05-05 10:01:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	113	13¢	$15	0x4ce5ad…
05-05 10:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	75	66¢	$50	0x32ed0f…
05-05 09:58:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	66	91¢	$60	0xf51ec1…
05-05 09:57:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	107	28¢	$30	0x1dd38f…
05-05 09:57:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	92	65¢	$60	0x7a884d…
05-05 09:56:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	91	33¢	$30	0x141e35…
05-05 09:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	90	39¢	$35	0xcd0720…
05-05 09:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	219	78¢	$170	0x7d8c32…
05-05 09:51:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	97	31¢	$30	0xa38df4…