Somber-Fingernail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$650

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

44.9%

Resolved

2,065

Trades

3,932

lifetime

Volume

$16.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 10-04 23:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 86 days

Categories

Crypto

86% 45% -$464

Other

14% 11% -$176

Sports

0% 50% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 247 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	2	$190	156	156	+0	No	-$10	06-25 19:39
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa?	5	$176	348	348	+0	Yes	+$46	06-11 21:07
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye?	2	$171	167	167	+0	Yes	+$162	06-14 06:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 22:05 UTC	2	$110	148	0	+148	Down	-$110	08-05 22:07
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	2	$90	93	93	+0	No	-$10	06-28 00:23
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	2	$83	101	101	+0	No	-$26	06-12 20:45
bitcoin up or down on february 22	4	$81	11,868	37	+11,831	Down	-$9	02-22 16:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 17:20 UTC	7	$81	69	69	+0	Down	+$1	08-06 17:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 17:10 UTC	7	$79	64	64	+0	Down	-$1	08-06 17:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 22:55 UTC	8	$78	84	57	+27	Down	-$6	08-06 23:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 17:05 UTC	5	$72	62	62	+0	Down	-$8	08-06 17:08
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	6	$69	66	66	+0	70k	-$2	02-03 13:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 22:50 UTC	9	$68	65	65	+0	Down	-$4	08-06 22:54
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	2	$66	124	124	+0	No	+$0	07-19 00:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 21:55 UTC	4	$62	48	48	+0	Down	+$2	08-06 22:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 13:10 UTC	2	$60	107	0	+107	Up	+$19	03-31 13:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-02 08:30 UTC	4	$60	122	0	+122	Down	+$22	04-02 08:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 22:25 UTC	6	$58	105	105	+0	Up	+$8	08-06 22:30
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 England?	4	$55	258	258	+0	No	-$5	07-18 21:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	3	$53	71	18	+53	Up	+$8	08-05 22:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 07:35 UTC	6	$51	65	42	+23	Up	+$14	08-16 07:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 21:55 UTC	6	$50	74	28	+46	Down	-$40	08-05 21:58
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa?	1	$50	500	0	+500	No	-$50	06-11 18:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 04:40 UTC	2	$50	99	0	+99	Up	-$41	04-02 04:45
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland?	2	$50	45	45	+0	Yes	+$40	06-14 03:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 22:35 UTC	8	$50	66	40	+26	Up	-$5	08-06 22:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 06:35 UTC	7	$49	49	48	+1	Up	-$2	08-16 06:39
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw?	2	$48	39	39	+0	Yes	+$29	05-22 04:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 10:50 UTC	8	$48	42	42	+0	Down	+$2	08-09 10:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 10:35 UTC	6	$46	114	30	+84	Down	+$2	03-30 10:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-04 23:51:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xd2b233…
10-04 23:47:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xe58242…
10-04 23:47:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 23:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x812800…
10-03 12:51:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 12:50 UTC	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x65ca34…
10-03 12:45:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xac0e28…
10-03 12:35:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xe1a8bb…
10-03 12:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xdd23e7…
10-03 12:29:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xc4ed70…
10-03 12:28:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x947b67…
10-03 12:12:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 12:10 UTC	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xf07bf9…
10-03 07:38:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	14	30¢	$4	0xe73f31…
10-03 07:38:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x218116…
10-03 07:37:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x2d405e…
10-03 07:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x1dab27…
10-03 07:30:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x1f9627…
10-03 07:30:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x24e61e…
10-03 07:23:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf1dfcc…
10-03 07:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x792601…
10-03 07:16:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x691326…
10-03 07:03:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x70b245…
10-03 06:51:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x95f914…
10-03 06:40:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x8b2ac6…
10-03 06:39:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	SELL	16	92¢	$15	0xaa6852…
10-03 06:37:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xeb4c5a…
10-03 06:15:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x943997…
10-03 03:35:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x16cae4…
10-03 02:43:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x2dec7e…
10-03 02:34:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	SELL	8	5¢	$0	0x0432a3…
10-03 02:33:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xb1fa6b…
10-03 02:32:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x95d653…
10-03 02:32:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x6aa2e6…
10-03 02:03:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xd46189…
10-03 01:58:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xf4897e…
10-03 01:46:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x8651ad…
10-03 01:42:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xe2255b…
10-03 01:37:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xd94fae…
10-02 22:37:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x7f18ba…
10-02 22:31:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x0d1c7c…
10-02 22:26:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x02b3d9…
10-02 22:06:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x528aca…
10-02 21:49:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x3e4741…
10-02 21:48:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x7c40b1…
10-02 21:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xcc5578…
10-02 21:33:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x57b9c7…
10-02 21:33:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xde9e1f…
10-02 18:56:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xb239d9…
10-02 03:25:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xcfb215…
10-01 23:53:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xa9e207…
10-01 23:45:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x28424c…
10-01 21:36:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x579968…
10-01 21:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x35ba87…
10-01 21:28:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xad7781…
10-01 21:14:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x0837f6…
10-01 21:02:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xe84521…
10-01 20:53:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x74389f…
10-01 17:30:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x5f0338…
10-01 17:27:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xc378f0…
10-01 17:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x2a3026…
10-01 17:07:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x630ed4…
10-01 16:50:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xc941cc…
10-01 16:48:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x028ca7…
10-01 16:42:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x102071…
10-01 16:28:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xac64d1…
10-01 16:25:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x16bb09…
09-21 11:23:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 11:20 UTC	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x16a77f…
09-21 11:18:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x277089…
09-21 11:18:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x23c2b3…
09-21 11:11:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 11:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x495f2f…
09-21 11:09:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 11:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x4da8ed…
09-21 11:08:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 11:05 UTC	Up	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0x919b3d…
09-21 11:08:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 11:05 UTC	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xd43303…
09-21 10:53:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x419ac0…
09-21 10:40:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 10:40 UTC	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xeebab9…
09-21 10:37:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 10:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xfeb13c…
09-21 10:19:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xd2fe8c…
09-21 10:14:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 10:10 UTC	Up	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x8ac99e…
09-21 09:33:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 09:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xec3325…
09-21 09:33:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 09:30 UTC	Down	SELL	13	21¢	$3	0xfcfb10…
09-21 09:32:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 09:30 UTC	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xdd25ef…
09-21 09:32:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 09:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xe1f348…
09-21 09:31:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 09:30 UTC	Up	SELL	12	49¢	$6	0xce61e4…
09-21 09:31:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 09:30 UTC	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xaa4d2d…
09-21 09:22:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 09:20 UTC	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x22a7d5…
09-21 09:13:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 09:10 UTC	Down	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0x0452af…
09-21 09:13:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 09:10 UTC	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xa70360…
09-21 09:12:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 09:10 UTC	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x9b39b1…
09-21 08:51:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 08:50 UTC	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x4a3819…
09-21 08:40:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 08:40 UTC	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xb01b02…
09-21 08:16:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 08:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x34f932…
09-21 08:06:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 08:05 UTC	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x2d113f…
09-21 07:27:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 07:25 UTC	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xd6eee6…
09-21 07:21:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 07:20 UTC	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x906c51…
09-21 07:16:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 07:15 UTC	Up	SELL	7	81¢	$6	0xdc18ee…
09-21 07:15:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xa7de40…
09-21 06:36:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5310c3…
09-21 06:31:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x2a8de8…
09-21 01:26:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x327b28…
09-20 23:57:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xe7c353…
09-20 23:42:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-20 23:40 UTC	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x2b2534…
09-20 23:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x982b91…