Mealy-Bracket — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$511

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

86.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$12.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$154

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-30

last 07-24 14:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

76% 65% -$462

Politics

12% 33% -$262

Tech

8% 80% +$143

Pop-Culture

3% 100% +$70

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-24).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?	6	$2.8K	2,941	0	+2,941	No	+$95	05-19 20:17
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	1	$2.6K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$352	05-15 21:46
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	1	$930	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$70	06-18 20:18
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	1	$735	793	0	+793	No	-$735	05-05 15:00
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$692	713	0	+713	Yes	+$20	04-30 13:37
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?	4	$541	317	317	+0	Yes	+$59	07-24 14:50
Will "Apex" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	1	$522	538	0	+538	Yes	+$16	05-01 19:26
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	1	$440	524	0	+524	No	-$440	04-30 16:03
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	9	$430	500	0	+500	Yes	+$70	05-20 21:42
Chirayu Rana fired?	1	$370	683	0	+683	cancelled	-$29	05-01 14:52
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	9	$315	500	500	+0	Yes	+$45	07-01 16:53
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	1	$271	365	0	+365	Yes	+$94	05-19 20:38
Trump kiss by May 31?	3	$256	539	0	+539	Yes	-$256	05-20 15:31
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?	1	$240	289	0	+289	Yes	+$49	05-01 19:25
will claude be restored for international customers by september 30 20260629151305733	2	$238	281	0	+281	Yes	+$43	06-30 23:54
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?	2	$217	244	0	+244	No	+$27	04-30 14:45
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	1	$207	275	0	+275	No	+$68	05-03 20:02
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	1	$164	200	0	+200	No	+$36	06-03 16:41
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?	1	$125	193	0	+193	Yes	+$67	06-02 14:58
will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	5	$114	151	0	+151	No	+$37	07-01 04:52
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	1	$84	100	0	+100	Yes	+$16	06-30 17:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$69	901	0	+901	No	-$69	05-21 18:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$64	320	0	+320	No	-$64	05-21 18:25
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31?	1	$47	169	0	+169	Yes	-$47	05-01 19:01
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	1	$27	2,492	0	+2,492	No	-$27	06-29 22:51
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?	2	$13	14	0	+14	No	+$1	05-21 05:44
Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	2	$11	400	0	+400	Yes	-$11	05-28 00:50
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	1	$10	700	0	+700	No	-$10	05-25 18:40
will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	1	$10	20	0	+20	Yes	-$10	06-30 23:54
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	17	$6	3,815	0	+3,815	No	-$6	05-12 12:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-24 14:50:22	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	Yes	SELL	196	95¢	$185	0x408510…
07-24 14:24:42	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	Yes	SELL	32	95¢	$30	0xb5c160…
07-23 17:03:24	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	Yes	SELL	89	95¢	$84	0x6905a7…
07-21 18:11:28	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	317	76¢	$241	0xbbb3da…
07-01 16:53:47	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	SELL	500	36¢	$180	0x8a0b27…
07-01 07:47:25	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	101	27¢	$27	0x06cee2…
07-01 07:39:07	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	47	27¢	$13	0x409a6f…
07-01 07:29:38	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	254	27¢	$69	0x6cc851…
07-01 05:48:04	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	38	27¢	$10	0x372948…
07-01 05:43:53	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	34	27¢	$9	0x057379…
07-01 05:26:46	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x6d31f6…
07-01 05:24:25	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0x9a7520…
07-01 04:54:44	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x7a992f…
07-01 04:52:52	will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	BUY	19	60¢	$12	0x89d005…
07-01 03:30:40	will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	BUY	32	75¢	$24	0xf17b80…
07-01 03:27:34	will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	BUY	91	79¢	$72	0x941fb3…
07-01 03:27:32	will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0x488b58…
06-30 23:54:44	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xeee6e0…
06-30 23:54:25	will claude be restored for international customers by september 30 20260629151305733	Yes	BUY	38	85¢	$32	0x3eb698…
06-30 23:54:11	will claude be restored for international customers by september 30 20260629151305733	Yes	BUY	243	85¢	$206	0x581405…
06-30 17:31:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	Yes	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x8aa9d4…
06-29 22:51:16	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2,492	1¢	$27	0x088f41…
06-18 20:18:53	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0xa7a68f…
06-03 16:41:21	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x7d584d…
06-02 14:58:57	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?	Yes	BUY	193	65¢	$125	0x2d80b1…
05-28 00:50:00	Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	98	3¢	$3	0xcb9b80…
05-28 00:48:16	Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	302	3¢	$8	0x8e19c0…
05-25 18:40:03	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	Yes	BUY	700	2¢	$10	0x874991…
05-21 18:25:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	312	20¢	$62	0xc87c46…
05-21 18:25:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0xbcf939…
05-21 18:18:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	901	8¢	$69	0xf2369b…
05-21 05:44:29	Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	93¢	$0	0xbbf586…
05-20 21:42:28	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	Yes	BUY	175	86¢	$151	0xaec718…
05-20 21:42:28	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	Yes	BUY	31	86¢	$27	0xa28b62…
05-20 21:42:28	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	Yes	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x4b9887…
05-20 21:42:28	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	Yes	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0x35b846…
05-20 21:42:28	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	Yes	BUY	57	86¢	$49	0x26aa65…
05-20 20:35:37	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x327f0a…
05-20 20:22:30	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	Yes	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xfc49bb…
05-20 19:46:09	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	Yes	BUY	139	86¢	$120	0x178b11…
05-20 19:26:54	Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x8d7042…
05-20 16:00:49	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	Yes	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0xf9e2d3…
05-20 15:31:19	Trump kiss by May 31?	No	BUY	400	49¢	$196	0x04c0bf…
05-20 14:32:26	Trump kiss by May 31?	No	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0x33cb0b…
05-20 14:29:19	Trump kiss by May 31?	No	BUY	39	43¢	$17	0x687b0c…
05-19 20:38:49	Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	365	74¢	$271	0x1b3f78…
05-19 20:17:28	Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	BUY	1,493	99¢	$1,478	0xc3e1ff…
05-19 20:17:17	Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x745b23…
05-19 20:17:17	Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	BUY	1,100	99¢	$1,089	0x350791…
05-19 20:13:19	Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	BUY	42	79¢	$33	0x329e13…
05-19 20:07:57	Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	BUY	262	80¢	$210	0xa54ae4…
05-19 20:07:50	Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0x46f73d…
05-15 21:46:19	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	88¢	$2,648	0xc98759…
05-12 12:49:22	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x98b9c3…
05-06 01:14:50	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0xa2c317…
05-05 22:59:52	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xcc7a0a…
05-05 22:58:30	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	46	0¢	$0	0x17b28b…
05-05 22:58:16	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	39	0¢	$0	0xb5198f…
05-05 22:57:52	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x2f380a…
05-05 22:57:36	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	120	0¢	$0	0x756000…
05-05 22:57:36	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0x45ab61…
05-05 22:57:34	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x98bd08…
05-05 22:44:40	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	46	0¢	$0	0x664b3a…
05-05 22:33:20	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x5eec8e…
05-05 22:30:28	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x18ca6d…
05-05 22:27:24	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x452043…
05-05 22:27:22	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	55	0¢	$0	0xdbbdd9…
05-05 22:27:22	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	82	0¢	$0	0x98545f…
05-05 22:27:22	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x4de5a3…
05-05 22:27:10	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	259	0¢	$0	0x908a87…
05-05 15:00:18	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	793	93¢	$735	0xf23999…
05-03 20:02:16	Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	No	BUY	275	75¢	$207	0x59a341…
05-01 19:26:00	Will "Apex" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	538	97¢	$522	0xbe8cc0…
05-01 19:25:40	Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	289	83¢	$240	0x2341e9…
05-01 19:01:56	Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31?	No	BUY	169	28¢	$47	0x2313a5…
05-01 14:52:36	Chirayu Rana fired?	Yes	BUY	683	54¢	$370	0x685621…
04-30 16:03:22	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	524	84¢	$440	0x68833b…
04-30 14:45:20	Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$7	0x087500…
04-30 13:39:16	Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?	No	BUY	234	89¢	$210	0x9603ec…
04-30 13:37:54	Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	319	97¢	$311	0x4447f5…
04-30 13:37:46	Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	394	97¢	$382	0x71ece2…