Incompatible-Bellows — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$62

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

161

Trades

199

lifetime

Volume

$6.33K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

$45

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-29 13:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Politics

47% 94% +$34

Other

35% 100% +$19

Crypto

14% 100% +$8

Sports

3% 100% +$0

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes		+48	$46	93¢	$45	-$1	10-14 14:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	5	$795	409	409	+0	No	+$12	10-29 13:18
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$375	305	113	+191	Yes	+$0	10-26 00:11
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	3	$371	187	187	+0	No	+$1	09-07 12:20
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	2	$241	128	128	+0	No	+$13	09-30 00:24
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	1	$197	198	0	+198	Yes	+$0	10-05 00:20
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	4	$189	189	0	+189	No	+$1	09-22 11:45
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$181	182	0	+182	No	+$0	09-16 09:08
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$181	182	0	+182	Yes	+$1	09-18 07:22
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	1	$180	180	0	+180	No	+$1	10-01 03:25
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$178	180	0	+180	Yes	+$2	09-10 16:13
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$168	170	0	+170	No	+$1	08-11 06:15
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	2	$168	169	0	+169	Yes	+$1	08-05 10:18
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	1	$168	175	0	+175	No	+$7	08-12 16:48
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	1	$165	169	0	+169	No	+$4	08-09 13:19
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	1	$165	165	0	+165	No	+$0	08-08 00:04
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$164	165	0	+165	No	+$0	06-26 13:20
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$162	163	0	+163	No	+$1	08-18 22:21
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$161	82	82	+0	No	+$3	08-31 12:16
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?	1	$149	151	0	+151	No	+$2	06-27 02:04
Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$101	102	0	+102	Yes	+$1	05-12 20:02
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$99	99	0	+99	Yes	+$0	05-14 18:39
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$97	99	0	+99	Yes	+$2	05-26 13:40
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	1	$95	96	0	+96	No	+$0	05-31 18:33
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$95	96	0	+96	Yes	+$1	05-29 06:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$94	97	0	+97	No	+$4	05-19 12:08
Will Malta be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	1	$94	94	0	+94	No	+$0	05-16 20:13
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	1	$93	94	0	+94	No	+$0	05-15 09:47
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	2	$87	45	45	+0	No	+$2	08-31 13:47
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$79	80	0	+80	No	+$1	07-30 12:40
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	2	$67	34	34	+0	No	+$1	09-01 09:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 13:18:26	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	202	100¢	$201	0xd2ef26…
10-28 16:03:47	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	202	99¢	$199	0xad0a6c…
10-28 06:16:16	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	207	98¢	$203	0xdbaf3c…
10-27 21:10:15	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0xac4fab…
10-27 20:03:23	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	192	93¢	$178	0xb6037e…
10-26 00:11:54	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	191	100¢	$191	0x2bb1d9…
10-18 00:05:50	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	113	81¢	$92	0xecea2c…
10-15 10:51:55	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	113	81¢	$92	0x560753…
10-15 05:39:34	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x9644c6…
10-14 14:35:22	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	48	95¢	$46	0xcd1e1f…
10-06 23:52:16	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x7c216a…
10-05 00:20:16	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	198	100¢	$197	0x5e40e9…
10-04 06:44:11	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x97a2e4…
10-01 03:25:03	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	180	100¢	$180	0xefe243…
09-30 17:25:47	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x4f06b7…
09-30 00:24:41	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	128	99¢	$127	0xe5693d…
09-30 00:09:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x15aa59…
09-28 13:45:23	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x033835…
09-25 10:46:14	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	128	89¢	$114	0x80a600…
09-25 08:32:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x43d8fe…
09-23 22:46:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x296466…
09-22 12:47:45	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb6408c…
09-22 11:45:13	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0xd8e90f…
09-22 09:56:10	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x83ab45…
09-22 08:44:21	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x52150e…
09-22 08:44:21	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0x4f088f…
09-19 13:57:32	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x331ee5…
09-18 07:22:58	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	182	99¢	$181	0xaa51f9…
09-16 09:08:39	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	182	100¢	$181	0xcffd65…
09-10 16:13:33	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	180	99¢	$178	0xe57950…
09-10 12:47:06	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x47d6ee…
09-07 12:20:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	124	100¢	$124	0x180640…
09-07 12:19:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	63	100¢	$62	0xa08cbf…
09-04 20:52:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	187	99¢	$185	0x7816bd…
09-01 09:11:22	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x269a6a…
08-31 13:47:25	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0xe47447…
08-31 12:16:48	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	82	100¢	$82	0xa18c80…
08-31 11:35:57	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	34	98¢	$33	0x51c28a…
08-31 11:08:12	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x188501…
08-27 10:20:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1e9bd7…
08-26 17:29:37	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	45	96¢	$43	0x776c2d…
08-26 14:10:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$29	0x803969…
08-24 07:26:31	Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4f4ffc…
08-24 05:24:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	82	97¢	$79	0x3f9ba2…
08-23 11:40:43	will ethereum dip to 1300 in august 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xbf731b…
08-23 04:27:57	will xauusd dip to 3500 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7cbfd8…
08-20 21:46:33	Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x3c0f51…
08-18 22:21:34	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	163	99¢	$162	0x3985de…
08-18 04:31:00	will xauusd dip to 3700 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1b6454…
08-17 23:27:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xffbfc4…
08-15 20:49:06	will xagusd dip to 46 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x11c689…
08-15 13:59:58	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x682c43…
08-12 16:48:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	175	96¢	$168	0x1d539c…
08-11 19:06:30	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xc47c0b…
08-11 06:15:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	170	99¢	$168	0xad06c2…
08-09 13:19:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	169	98¢	$165	0x7c69d9…
08-08 00:04:54	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0x06203f…
08-07 18:37:09	will wti reach 130 in august 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x08c301…
08-05 10:18:53	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	141	100¢	$140	0xcbb22c…
08-04 21:31:11	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xfb764c…
07-30 12:40:14	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0x7facaa…
07-29 18:07:03	will spy dip to 690 in july 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x82f349…
07-28 09:39:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x302c29…
07-27 23:37:30	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xd06b67…
07-26 08:21:16	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xb490f0…
07-26 02:52:34	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026 444	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc4659a…
07-24 07:12:10	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7621c2…
07-23 19:12:13	will ethereum reach 2400 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc82d00…
07-22 04:51:25	will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7c8807…
07-21 23:04:37	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x2638d4…
07-21 21:14:46	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x55d2e7…
07-21 20:08:01	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0x40aed5…
07-20 14:08:58	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xfff4d5…
07-16 21:37:19	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb57972…
07-16 14:15:20	will ethereum dip to 900 in july 2026 757	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3766fb…
07-16 14:08:20	will bitcoin dip to 45k in july 2026 597	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x93c6c8…
07-05 09:22:08	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5833e1…
06-30 02:59:11	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x151ca4…
06-29 13:41:20	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x45ed89…
06-29 13:33:25	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x1b7bec…
06-28 22:17:25	will spy dip to 690 in june 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x9f0555…
06-28 20:02:44	Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x94b18b…
06-28 16:17:43	will googl reach 390 in june 2026	No	BUY	24	99¢	$23	0xc0e0b1…
06-28 11:46:49	Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0x8b3e81…
06-27 02:04:40	Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	151	99¢	$149	0xc9b4f8…
06-26 17:22:56	Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x69ffab…
06-26 13:20:34	Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	165	100¢	$164	0x07dda1…
06-01 02:11:16	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x45176d…
05-31 18:33:17	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	96	100¢	$95	0x0f93ef…
05-30 09:03:28	Will Solana dip to $70 in May?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x3c30b0…
05-29 06:34:04	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	96	99¢	$95	0x407c68…
05-27 20:04:29	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x0f6e47…
05-26 13:40:28	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	99	98¢	$97	0x3d25cc…
05-19 12:08:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	97	96¢	$94	0x86c76b…
05-16 20:13:14	Will Malta be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	94	100¢	$94	0x25e457…
05-15 09:47:27	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	94	100¢	$93	0x0ff90f…
05-15 08:49:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xb4253b…
05-15 00:22:37	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xccef16…
05-14 18:39:33	Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x142092…
05-13 02:16:21	Will Solana reach $140 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x8ddbea…