Innocent-Hit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

83.9%

Resolved

Trades

907

lifetime

Volume

$21.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$25

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-13 16:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

52% 50% $-4

Politics

42% 50% $-13

Crypto

4% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic		-33	$-27	76¢	$-25	+$2	06-02 12:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
odds of us strikes iran in february over 50 by feb 13	4	$643	300	400	-100	open	—	02-09 01:25
will antnio jos seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	3	$619	399	400	-1	open	—	01-08 05:28
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	22	$488	854	80	+773	open	—	03-12 12:22
will trump say kevin or warsh during fed chair announcement	5	$416	200	300	-100	open	—	01-30 12:12
will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	4	$407	400	600	-200	open	—	01-13 04:15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	4	$405	200	500	-300	open	—	04-28 06:40
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 480 499	8	$383	220	220	+0	open	—	01-08 07:05
israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by january 31	4	$361	200	200	+0	open	—	01-20 12:38
will player 167 win beast games season 2 763	9	$356	377	377	+0	open	—	01-25 00:57
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	13	$351	250	504	-254	open	—	03-06 14:18
will there be 1618 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	12	$336	305	200	+105	open	—	02-23 15:12
donald trump of truth social posts march 10 march 17 80 99	15	$331	350	200	+150	open	—	03-17 12:41
will the us next strike iran on january 27 2026 et 332	7	$313	160	200	-40	open	—	01-13 04:18
nflx above 80 on february 27 2026	6	$305	214	414	-200	open	—	02-25 15:46
will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of february 743 796 985 593 523 417 437	2	$300	100	250	-150	open	—	02-13 03:22
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	6	$293	193	240	-47	open	—	05-20 14:13
will bernies appearance at the fighting oligarchy rally not air	2	$287	100	200	-100	open	—	02-13 06:51
Will the US strike Somalia next?	5	$287	240	240	+0	open	—	01-13 04:18
will pltr dip to 126 in february	7	$285	220	220	+0	open	—	02-25 16:41
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	3	$284	100	200	-100	open	—	05-23 14:19
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	7	$284	300	200	+100	open	—	02-25 15:41
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 15 million 268	2	$282	200	200	+0	open	—	01-16 06:32
will israel strike gaza on january 19 2026	3	$278	111	189	-78	open	—	01-20 07:53
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	11	$275	200	200	+0	open	—	04-25 03:52
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$273	183	283	-100	open	—	01-08 07:08
will bernie sanders say crypto or bitcoin during the fighting oligarchy rally	7	$260	167	153	+14	open	—	02-13 15:37
will hoppers opening weekend box office be between 38m and 42m	10	$247	200	200	+0	open	—	03-06 18:06
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by february 28	6	$241	200	200	+0	open	—	02-04 15:34
will israel strike gaza on january 20 2026	13	$236	173	153	+20	open	—	01-20 09:16
will iran strike israel on march 6	7	$234	150	150	+0	open	—	03-08 10:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 16:50:31	us and iran sign an agreement by july 31 2026 20260611221049854	Yes	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0x0cb93c…
06-13 11:47:19	will jd vance sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950068	No	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0x18bfba…
06-13 08:33:27	will donald trump sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950067	Yes	BUY	38	41¢	$16	0x29bf62…
06-13 08:33:01	will donald trump sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950067	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x8fbd4b…
06-13 08:32:27	will donald trump sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950067	Yes	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0x25a2fd…
06-13 08:10:06	will jd vance sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950068	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xf8764d…
06-13 07:21:19	us and iran sign an agreement by july 31 2026 20260611221049854	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0xb0f006…
06-05 02:37:24	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x05906b…
06-03 10:02:11	Iran closes its airspace by July 31?	Yes	SELL	350	34¢	$119	0x8e8b40…
06-03 06:35:41	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x6212a5…
06-03 05:07:00	Iran closes its airspace by July 31?	Yes	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0x9c67a1…
06-02 12:20:57	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	31	81¢	$25	0x845beb…
06-02 12:20:25	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0x22edc2…
05-27 04:45:26	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?	Yes	SELL	129	63¢	$81	0x6b7f97…
05-26 07:45:31	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xa3c9d6…
05-26 06:29:02	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	21	66¢	$14	0x77a54b…
05-26 06:27:58	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x0a1881…
05-26 06:26:51	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0xe13967…
05-26 06:18:13	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x5a5f0c…
05-26 06:17:52	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xcffa4c…
05-26 06:15:30	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xcffb02…
05-26 06:15:13	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0x9eafb4…
05-26 06:15:02	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0x7c9420…
05-26 06:14:52	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x368946…
05-26 06:14:20	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x4645bb…
05-26 06:14:13	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xcc4e0d…
05-26 06:13:52	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xb4ee76…
05-26 06:12:42	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x442664…
05-25 12:45:48	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	SELL	103	62¢	$64	0x5020f2…
05-25 12:05:38	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	SELL	47	62¢	$29	0x48550e…
05-25 11:40:38	Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	29¢	$14	0x6bcb01…
05-25 11:07:23	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0xa25d3a…
05-25 11:06:59	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	BUY	45	64¢	$29	0x20e83a…
05-25 11:04:28	Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0xb84941…
05-25 10:57:14	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?	Yes	BUY	17	57¢	$10	0x50ae6b…
05-25 10:56:04	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x9681c4…
05-25 10:44:17	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?	Yes	BUY	30	57¢	$17	0xba2ca0…
05-25 10:31:31	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x6c0c7c…
05-25 10:27:29	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0x17681e…
05-25 10:23:16	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xe986a8…
05-25 10:13:14	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x99e431…
05-24 06:40:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	61¢	$30	0x7cb20d…
05-24 05:50:30	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	44¢	$44	0x57f3bc…
05-24 03:35:33	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0xdca575…
05-24 03:11:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x76af82…
05-23 14:19:53	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x765e00…
05-23 14:13:53	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	15	26¢	$4	0xcd551c…
05-23 14:11:48	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	194	95¢	$184	0x1c97cb…
05-23 13:14:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	37	95¢	$36	0xf78464…
05-23 12:40:55	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x0fbf57…
05-23 12:03:14	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x1b9286…
05-23 12:03:07	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xc42c9c…
05-23 12:02:52	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x6bb2f1…
05-23 11:51:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	63	95¢	$60	0x5fc0a5…
05-22 14:24:43	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	No	SELL	50	35¢	$17	0x5ecf98…
05-22 13:30:35	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	39¢	$19	0xaec883…
05-22 13:11:18	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May?	No	SELL	100	65¢	$65	0x512307…
05-22 05:30:26	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May?	No	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0xd4c32a…
05-22 05:07:25	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May?	Yes	BUY	33	37¢	$12	0x6b596c…
05-22 05:06:42	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May?	Yes	BUY	17	37¢	$6	0x7b832d…
05-22 04:36:50	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May?	No	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0xa9736b…
05-22 04:00:50	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	No	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x9b6034…
05-20 14:13:23	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	240	86¢	$206	0xfbe456…
05-17 14:00:46	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x41b6c2…
05-17 13:44:10	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0x5f775b…
05-17 13:35:43	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xbe1dd3…
05-17 13:15:56	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	60	45¢	$27	0x2dc91b…
05-17 12:50:01	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xa126d3…
05-14 09:58:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0x548eac…
05-14 09:53:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	52	50¢	$26	0xf0289b…
05-14 09:48:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x9507a6…
05-14 08:09:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	35	47¢	$16	0xcb868d…
05-14 07:57:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0xf18194…
05-14 07:54:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xcc8e10…
05-05 15:57:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Yes	SELL	250	11¢	$26	0x2a885a…
05-05 15:38:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	148	2¢	$3	0x66918c…
05-05 15:36:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	52	2¢	$1	0x3b104b…
05-05 15:00:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0x8b3d9e…
05-05 14:51:22	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x11db0f…
05-05 14:38:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x748040…
05-05 14:31:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x020ee1…
05-05 14:27:46	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	25	6¢	$1	0x06d0d0…
05-05 14:11:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Yes	BUY	87	11¢	$9	0x8741dd…
05-05 14:11:56	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0xe1d314…
05-05 14:09:38	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xdc48e3…
05-05 14:08:26	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xd035f2…
05-05 14:05:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Yes	BUY	52	11¢	$6	0xba1ae3…
05-05 14:05:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Yes	BUY	48	11¢	$5	0x1f5c34…
05-05 14:05:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Yes	BUY	46	11¢	$5	0x0d95c2…
04-28 09:56:54	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0x6aba72…
04-28 08:23:04	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x41784e…
04-28 08:22:42	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	BUY	40	33¢	$13	0x93ac33…
04-28 08:20:56	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 28?	Up	SELL	150	14¢	$21	0xc304b7…
04-28 06:40:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	129	59¢	$76	0xc1026c…
04-28 06:35:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0x4de829…
04-28 06:19:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	366	59¢	$216	0x6dd258…
04-28 06:17:48	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x1a4f1e…
04-28 06:13:24	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 28?	Up	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0xeb0345…
04-28 06:13:22	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 28?	Up	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xfe19b5…
04-28 06:06:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0xbdcf48…