Innocent-Hit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

83.9%

Resolved

Trades

967

lifetime

Volume

$22.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$28

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-30 12:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

50% 50% $-4

Politics

43% 50% $-13

Crypto

4% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic		-33	$-27	85¢	$-28	$-1	06-02 12:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
odds of us strikes iran in february over 50 by feb 13	4	$643	300	400	-100	open	—	02-09 01:25
will antnio jos seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	3	$619	399	400	-1	open	—	01-08 05:28
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	12	$563	450	450	+0	open	—	06-30 12:35
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	22	$488	854	80	+773	open	—	03-12 12:22
will trump say kevin or warsh during fed chair announcement	5	$416	200	300	-100	open	—	01-30 12:12
will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	4	$407	400	600	-200	open	—	01-13 04:15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	4	$405	200	500	-300	open	—	04-28 06:40
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 480 499	8	$383	220	220	+0	open	—	01-08 07:05
israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by january 31	4	$361	200	200	+0	open	—	01-20 12:38
will player 167 win beast games season 2 763	9	$356	377	377	+0	open	—	01-25 00:57
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	13	$351	250	504	-254	open	—	03-06 14:18
will there be 1618 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	12	$336	305	200	+105	open	—	02-23 15:12
donald trump of truth social posts march 10 march 17 80 99	15	$331	350	200	+150	open	—	03-17 12:41
will the us next strike iran on january 27 2026 et 332	7	$313	160	200	-40	open	—	01-13 04:18
nflx above 80 on february 27 2026	6	$305	214	414	-200	open	—	02-25 15:46
will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of february 743 796 985 593 523 417 437	2	$300	100	250	-150	open	—	02-13 03:22
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	6	$293	193	240	-47	open	—	05-20 14:13
will bernies appearance at the fighting oligarchy rally not air	2	$287	100	200	-100	open	—	02-13 06:51
Will the US strike Somalia next?	5	$287	240	240	+0	open	—	01-13 04:18
will pltr dip to 126 in february	7	$285	220	220	+0	open	—	02-25 16:41
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	3	$284	100	200	-100	open	—	05-23 14:19
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	7	$284	300	200	+100	open	—	02-25 15:41
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 15 million 268	2	$282	200	200	+0	open	—	01-16 06:32
will israel strike gaza on january 19 2026	3	$278	111	189	-78	open	—	01-20 07:53
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	11	$275	200	200	+0	open	—	04-25 03:52
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$273	183	283	-100	open	—	01-08 07:08
will bernie sanders say crypto or bitcoin during the fighting oligarchy rally	7	$260	167	153	+14	open	—	02-13 15:37
will hoppers opening weekend box office be between 38m and 42m	10	$247	200	200	+0	open	—	03-06 18:06
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by february 28	6	$241	200	200	+0	open	—	02-04 15:34
will israel strike gaza on january 20 2026	13	$236	173	153	+20	open	—	01-20 09:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 12:35:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	350	76¢	$266	0xf38c5d…
06-30 12:22:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	50	27¢	$14	0x7e220e…
06-30 10:41:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xfa97ac…
06-30 10:27:25	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x6b7b9e…
06-30 10:18:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x58df3c…
06-30 10:14:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x7f25eb…
06-30 10:12:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	90	68¢	$61	0xdead43…
06-30 10:10:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x5abc1d…
06-30 09:40:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x8676b5…
06-27 17:17:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0x0afbbf…
06-27 16:48:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	27	34¢	$9	0x021404…
06-27 16:21:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	23	34¢	$8	0x9b1c14…
06-26 09:23:22	mlp nj lv 2026 06 26	Las Vegas Night Owls	BUY	32	2¢	$1	0x75f340…
06-26 01:20:20	will the announcers say temperature during the japan vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260623181809443	No	SELL	21	60¢	$13	0x9ac463…
06-26 01:09:13	will the announcers say temperature during the japan vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260623181809443	No	SELL	15	60¢	$9	0xa3eedf…
06-26 01:09:07	will the announcers say temperature during the japan vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260623181809443	No	SELL	4	60¢	$2	0x4d22b4…
06-24 23:40:25	will morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622436	Yes	SELL	27	96¢	$26	0x91bc1b…
06-24 09:19:46	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	Yes	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x685fbd…
06-24 09:19:43	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	Yes	BUY	12	52¢	$6	0xf6ba67…
06-24 09:19:14	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x616ce1…
06-24 09:07:17	will the announcers say crossbar during the japan vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260623181809455	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x1ed1f0…
06-24 08:29:10	will the announcers say crossbar during the japan vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260623181809455	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xc4c84a…
06-24 08:29:01	will the announcers say crossbar during the japan vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260623181809455	Yes	BUY	18	18¢	$3	0x0524af…
06-24 08:27:28	will the announcers say nutmeg or meg during the japan vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260623181809463	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x463bf7…
06-24 08:25:59	will the announcers say temperature during the japan vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260623181809443	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x7c5875…
06-24 08:03:32	will the announcers say crossbar during the japan vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260623181809455	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0xafe19e…
06-16 14:05:44	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	53	76¢	$40	0xfb3e82…
06-16 13:47:19	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xba4611…
06-16 13:47:14	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xd2a8de…
06-16 13:27:08	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xc521a8…
06-16 13:27:04	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x64806f…
06-16 13:17:05	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x7aecd9…
06-16 13:16:59	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x094d19…
06-16 13:07:30	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x23eb22…
06-16 13:07:24	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x4414e6…
06-16 13:07:19	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x91b7e4…
06-16 12:57:30	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xcb20af…
06-16 12:47:22	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xb7e633…
06-16 12:47:13	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x91c7f4…
06-16 12:47:07	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x41b843…
06-16 12:37:09	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xcaab17…
06-16 12:27:25	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xee1396…
06-16 12:27:16	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0xd46056…
06-16 08:47:57	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0xb5a702…
06-16 08:19:18	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xb7261e…
06-16 08:19:03	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	BUY	40	76¢	$30	0xee1bc2…
06-16 08:15:40	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0xf77302…
06-15 22:38:22	will morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622436	Yes	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x3a7ae4…
06-15 14:48:27	will morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622436	Yes	SELL	30	73¢	$22	0xc6872d…
06-15 07:39:15	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x96098d…
06-15 07:27:10	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x10d0d1…
06-15 02:44:48	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x38af25…
06-14 07:47:30	will donald trump sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950067	Yes	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0xe78a93…
06-14 05:45:55	will morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622436	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x53d1e0…
06-13 16:50:31	us and iran sign an agreement by july 31 2026 20260611221049854	Yes	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0x0cb93c…
06-13 11:47:19	will jd vance sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950068	No	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0x18bfba…
06-13 08:33:27	will donald trump sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950067	Yes	BUY	38	41¢	$16	0x29bf62…
06-13 08:33:01	will donald trump sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950067	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x8fbd4b…
06-13 08:32:27	will donald trump sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950067	Yes	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0x25a2fd…
06-13 08:10:06	will jd vance sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950068	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xf8764d…
06-13 07:21:19	us and iran sign an agreement by july 31 2026 20260611221049854	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0xb0f006…
06-05 02:37:24	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x05906b…
06-03 10:02:11	Iran closes its airspace by July 31?	Yes	SELL	350	34¢	$119	0x8e8b40…
06-03 06:35:41	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x6212a5…
06-03 05:07:00	Iran closes its airspace by July 31?	Yes	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0x9c67a1…
06-02 12:20:57	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	31	81¢	$25	0x845beb…
06-02 12:20:25	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0x22edc2…
05-27 04:45:26	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?	Yes	SELL	129	63¢	$81	0x6b7f97…
05-26 07:45:31	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xa3c9d6…
05-26 06:29:02	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	21	66¢	$14	0x77a54b…
05-26 06:27:58	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x0a1881…
05-26 06:26:51	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0xe13967…
05-26 06:18:13	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x5a5f0c…
05-26 06:17:52	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xcffa4c…
05-26 06:15:30	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xcffb02…
05-26 06:15:13	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0x9eafb4…
05-26 06:15:02	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0x7c9420…
05-26 06:14:52	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x368946…
05-26 06:14:20	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x4645bb…
05-26 06:14:13	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xcc4e0d…
05-26 06:13:52	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xb4ee76…
05-26 06:12:42	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x442664…
05-25 12:45:48	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	SELL	103	62¢	$64	0x5020f2…
05-25 12:05:38	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	SELL	47	62¢	$29	0x48550e…
05-25 11:40:38	Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	29¢	$14	0x6bcb01…
05-25 11:07:23	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0xa25d3a…
05-25 11:06:59	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	BUY	45	64¢	$29	0x20e83a…
05-25 11:04:28	Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0xb84941…
05-25 10:57:14	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?	Yes	BUY	17	57¢	$10	0x50ae6b…
05-25 10:56:04	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x9681c4…
05-25 10:44:17	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?	Yes	BUY	30	57¢	$17	0xba2ca0…
05-25 10:31:31	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x6c0c7c…
05-25 10:27:29	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0x17681e…
05-25 10:23:16	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xe986a8…
05-25 10:13:14	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x99e431…
05-24 06:40:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	61¢	$30	0x7cb20d…
05-24 05:50:30	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	44¢	$44	0x57f3bc…
05-24 03:35:33	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0xdca575…
05-24 03:11:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x76af82…
05-23 14:19:53	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x765e00…