Devoted-Crumb — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$526

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

181

lifetime

Volume

$8.84K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$49

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-25

last 07-04 19:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

53% 100% +$526

Politics

35% — —

Crypto

10% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	3	$692	426	426	+0	Paris Saint-Germain FC	+$159	05-06 22:52
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	4	$456	290	290	+0	open	—	05-15 04:15
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	4	$359	244	244	+0	open	—	05-15 04:15
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$352	211	211	+0	open	—	03-29 06:01
will fabiano caruana win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	5	$325	1,152	0	+1,152	open	—	04-06 06:44
will trump say hormuz during address to the nation	2	$287	160	160	+0	open	—	04-02 02:28
will trump say regime change during address to the nation 537	2	$249	149	149	+0	open	—	04-02 02:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$241	162	162	+0	open	—	05-24 16:48
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	3	$241	185	185	+0	open	—	05-01 05:13
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 3.5	2	$231	156	156	+0	Under	+$81	05-10 21:17
will magnus carlsen win the 20252026 speed chess championship	1	$220	301	0	+301	open	—	02-04 08:42
btc updown 5m 1773218400	1	$200	408	0	+408	open	—	03-11 08:40
will hikaru nakamura win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	3	$200	1,746	0	+1,746	open	—	04-01 07:54
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	4	$192	1,015	530	+485	open	—	04-25 19:16
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5	2	$165	117	117	+0	Under	+$69	05-09 16:16
Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5	2	$150	227	0	+227	open	—	05-01 15:31
fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 2pt5	2	$150	326	0	+326	open	—	06-13 21:53
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	3	$146	231	0	+231	Club Atlético de Madrid	+$85	05-05 15:54
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	3	$139	109	109	+0	open	—	05-11 03:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$133	93	93	+0	open	—	04-22 10:19
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	3	$119	431	313	+118	open	—	04-28 08:44
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	6	$117	213	213	+0	open	—	05-18 07:59
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	3	$116	97	97	+0	open	—	04-21 14:57
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	3	$112	172	172	+0	open	—	05-08 18:14
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	2	$105	250	240	+10	open	—	04-24 13:21
fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 total 3pt5	1	$104	212	0	+212	open	—	06-15 05:12
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)	3	$101	68	68	+0	open	—	05-16 01:58
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	2	$100	123	123	+0	open	—	02-28 07:49
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$100	120	120	+0	open	—	02-28 07:49
btc updown 5m 1773218100	1	$100	167	0	+167	open	—	03-11 08:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 19:40:10	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 spread away 1pt5	France	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0xf2bdac…
06-26 17:55:14	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 goals erling haaland gte2	Yes	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0xfa9f22…
06-26 17:54:40	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 goals erling haaland gte1	Yes	BUY	263	19¢	$50	0x8804e5…
06-16 16:22:41	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 spread home 1pt5	Senegal	BUY	109	60¢	$66	0x443a8c…
06-15 05:18:55	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 spread home 1pt5	Egypt	BUY	66	66¢	$44	0x9da01d…
06-15 05:12:57	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	212	49¢	$104	0xfb3c0b…
06-13 21:53:58	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	114	44¢	$50	0xf65f7f…
06-12 08:28:10	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0xebe226…
06-12 08:23:06	fifwc usa par 2026 06 12 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0xdf9dd0…
06-12 06:14:34	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x17b187…
06-09 18:52:13	btc updown 5m 1781031300	Down	BUY	33	50¢	$16	0x88b9af…
06-09 18:51:15	btc updown 5m 1781030700	Up	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xd81e7d…
06-09 18:44:37	btc updown 5m 1781030700	Up	BUY	17	51¢	$9	0x563d94…
05-24 17:21:21	Spread: Spurs (-2.5)	Thunder	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xad4bea…
05-24 17:15:43	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	91	44¢	$40	0xe271cd…
05-24 16:48:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	162	87¢	$141	0x7b5842…
05-24 16:42:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	16	45¢	$7	0x306bde…
05-23 18:33:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	162	62¢	$100	0x030bf6…
05-18 07:59:37	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	114	13¢	$15	0x2d239e…
05-18 04:57:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x5ebbb1…
05-18 04:45:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x879cc1…
05-18 04:45:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x168ed2…
05-16 11:11:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0x72ecc1…
05-16 01:58:18	Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)	Pistons	SELL	68	100¢	$68	0x0a3bbc…
05-15 20:40:07	Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)	Pistons	BUY	17	48¢	$8	0x979c90…
05-15 14:31:08	Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)	Pistons	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x72669a…
05-15 04:15:23	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	17	90¢	$15	0x101347…
05-15 04:15:06	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	227	97¢	$219	0x773cf7…
05-15 04:15:02	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	290	97¢	$281	0xb93db0…
05-14 18:07:00	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	86	59¢	$50	0xb9884e…
05-14 17:59:25	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	65	39¢	$25	0x5eb202…
05-14 16:24:59	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0x634934…
05-14 06:45:10	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0xfaad69…
05-14 06:44:55	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	150	67¢	$100	0xbaf1de…
05-11 14:32:10	Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	171	58¢	$100	0xd2442f…
05-11 04:17:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	30¢	$29	0xed2bfd…
05-11 03:27:01	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	109	82¢	$89	0x343274…
05-11 03:21:01	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	485	1¢	$5	0x51b709…
05-10 21:17:43	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 3.5	Under	SELL	156	100¢	$156	0xcc255a…
05-10 17:35:05	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	156	48¢	$75	0x2d92b2…
05-10 08:12:33	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x63abd8…
05-10 04:13:42	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0xbf3220…
05-09 16:16:19	Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5	Under	SELL	117	100¢	$117	0xdd415f…
05-09 10:43:26	Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	117	41¢	$48	0x92613d…
05-08 18:14:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	79¢	$68	0xd2f294…
05-08 01:24:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	45¢	$39	0x3f24ab…
05-08 01:19:35	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	115	13¢	$15	0x674040…
05-07 02:28:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0xbae846…
05-07 02:20:14	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x682d1f…
05-06 22:52:03	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	Paris Saint-Germain FC	SELL	426	100¢	$425	0x3d261e…
05-06 14:57:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	46¢	$30	0xc86c15…
05-06 09:13:26	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	51	60¢	$31	0x2ddd8b…
05-05 15:54:58	Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	Club Atlético de Madrid	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0x3bc7c3…
05-05 10:27:14	Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	Club Atlético de Madrid	BUY	46	63¢	$29	0xff9376…
05-05 07:47:46	Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	Club Atlético de Madrid	BUY	155	63¢	$97	0xd76e71…
05-05 07:27:46	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	375	63¢	$236	0x9fd7d0…
05-04 17:20:28	Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	137	55¢	$75	0xd4efbe…
05-03 05:35:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	49	41¢	$20	0xc95cf4…
05-02 05:41:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	82	49¢	$40	0x90dd9c…
05-01 15:31:18	Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	39	66¢	$26	0x97e98e…
05-01 05:13:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	46	76¢	$35	0xd17fc8…
05-01 05:13:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	139	76¢	$106	0xacf17c…
05-01 04:04:02	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Nuggets	BUY	18	38¢	$7	0xe3ec54…
04-30 11:43:08	Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	189	66¢	$124	0x9c5a10…
04-29 16:07:50	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	2,195	0¢	$9	0xed7388…
04-28 17:51:12	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	2,170	0¢	$7	0x70f110…
04-28 08:44:54	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	104	24¢	$25	0xb04f42…
04-28 08:12:10	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0x07d2c1…
04-28 07:41:12	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	20¢	$25	0xcf5504…
04-28 06:33:24	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	65¢	$75	0x8fb5fd…
04-28 04:12:02	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	237	0¢	$1	0x1f0ab3…
04-27 15:24:58	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	172	3¢	$5	0xd5f1c9…
04-27 07:10:06	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?	Yes	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0xbf4c65…
04-26 19:36:46	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0x243966…
04-25 19:24:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0xa06943…
04-25 19:16:42	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	165	8¢	$13	0x53e79d…
04-24 17:25:20	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	294	17¢	$50	0x40e95a…
04-24 14:22:06	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	248	6¢	$15	0xf5aa1d…
04-24 14:21:48	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	149	17¢	$25	0x405cc1…
04-24 14:17:56	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	530	15¢	$79	0x7c462c…
04-24 13:21:04	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	240	23¢	$55	0x2758b2…
04-24 11:45:10	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	265	14¢	$37	0x724a98…
04-24 11:38:52	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	313	14¢	$44	0xefed86…
04-24 07:09:24	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	278	8¢	$23	0x5c5661…
04-24 05:37:32	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	4,880	0¢	$5	0x65d003…
04-24 04:20:28	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	20¢	$50	0x9b93f3…
04-24 02:30:58	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	415	10¢	$42	0x65972a…
04-23 16:27:34	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	Yes	SELL	161	3¢	$5	0xf67229…
04-23 16:25:44	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 200 219	Yes	SELL	92	45¢	$41	0x759d6e…
04-23 15:28:28	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	Yes	BUY	169	3¢	$5	0xb8f0d1…
04-23 09:25:38	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x13f280…
04-23 08:50:52	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	556	9¢	$50	0xc927c0…
04-22 17:29:48	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	5¢	$10	0xcbe80a…
04-22 17:28:16	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	4,165	0¢	$8	0xcbae9f…
04-22 16:20:52	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0x8cf6f2…
04-22 10:19:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	93	90¢	$83	0x5e33a2…
04-22 09:34:38	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	327	15¢	$50	0x36825e…
04-22 08:22:16	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	1,643	0¢	$5	0x00e5db…
04-22 08:07:22	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	Yes	SELL	88	6¢	$5	0x71471a…
04-22 07:46:38	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	3,333	0¢	$10	0xea6420…