Humble-Lye — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

99.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.50K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$51

Open exposure

$16

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-26 03:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Crypto

64% 96% -$3

Other

33% 100% +$1

Tech

3% 100% +$0

Politics

1% 100% +$0

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No		+16	$16	100¢	$16	$0	10-26 03:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 84k on january 8	1	$82	82	+82	Yes	+$0	01-08 08:05
bitcoin above 98k on january 5	1	$82	82	+82	No	+$0	01-03 09:56
bitcoin above 96k on january 12	1	$82	82	+82	No	+$0	01-12 10:39
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 19?	1	$80	80	+80	No	+$0	05-19 02:46
bitcoin above 56k on june 8 2026	1	$80	80	+80	Yes	+$0	06-08 02:32
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	1	$80	80	+80	No	+$0	05-24 08:15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1?	1	$80	80	+80	No	+$0	05-31 08:31
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	1	$80	80	+80	No	+$0	06-04 06:50
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29?	1	$80	80	+80	No	+$0	05-29 02:28
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	1	$80	80	+80	No	+$0	05-14 08:53
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 12?	1	$80	80	+80	No	+$0	05-12 03:22
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 9?	1	$80	80	+80	No	+$0	05-08 07:37
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	1	$80	80	+80	No	+$0	05-03 09:31
bitcoin above 66k on april 10	1	$79	79	+79	Yes	+$0	04-10 03:56
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 400 419	1	$79	79	+79	No	+$0	04-05 06:47
bitcoin above 74k on march 21	1	$79	79	+79	No	+$0	03-21 08:51
bitcoin above 78k on march 16	1	$79	79	+79	No	+$0	03-16 11:17
bitcoin above 64k on march 6	1	$79	79	+79	Yes	+$0	03-06 09:38
bitcoin above 54k on march 3	1	$79	79	+79	Yes	+$0	03-02 01:29
bitcoin above 76k on february 10	1	$78	78	+78	No	+$0	02-10 03:49
ethereum above 2700 on february 3	1	$78	78	+78	No	+$0	02-03 06:54
bitcoin above 94k on january 21	1	$78	78	+78	No	+$0	01-21 09:55
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 520 539	1	$77	77	+77	No	+$0	04-14 06:53
will the price of bitcoin be between 88000 90000 on january 18	1	$77	77	+77	No	+$0	01-18 02:07
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$76	76	+76	No	+$0	03-31 02:14
bitcoin above 80k on march 27	1	$76	76	+76	No	+$0	03-26 08:49
will bitcoin dip to 80k january 19 25	1	$75	75	+75	No	+$0	01-25 09:34
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$75	75	+75	No	+$0	04-28 02:40
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 260 279	1	$75	75	+75	No	+$0	04-24 06:24
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 340 359	1	$75	75	+75	No	+$0	04-20 02:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 03:51:42	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xd57006…
09-27 13:52:21	Iran leadership change by September 30?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x7ed2db…
09-27 13:51:00	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x73fc53…
08-20 13:20:51	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$14	0x445874…
06-08 02:32:31	bitcoin above 56k on june 8 2026	Yes	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xb9f3b1…
06-04 06:50:37	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xde28a6…
05-31 08:31:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x13dbe0…
05-29 02:28:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xce7eb0…
05-24 08:15:05	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x9906d9…
05-19 02:46:25	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 19?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xbf29b2…
05-14 08:53:30	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x961acf…
05-12 03:22:56	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 12?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x313378…
05-08 07:37:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 9?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x87f454…
05-03 09:31:06	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x25d020…
04-28 02:40:16	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x372e7c…
04-24 06:24:02	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 260 279	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x7e526c…
04-24 06:23:52	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x59d4a6…
04-20 02:09:10	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 340 359	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x54bd56…
04-20 02:09:02	highest temperature in london on april 20 2026 18corhigher	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x58e723…
04-20 02:08:44	Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbd3b77…
04-20 02:08:34	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2ba1b6…
04-14 06:53:15	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 520 539	No	BUY	77	100¢	$77	0xf5a459…
04-14 06:53:03	Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x06b927…
04-14 06:52:41	ethereum above 2100 on april 14	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7715a0…
04-10 03:56:39	bitcoin above 66k on april 10	Yes	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0xff782e…
04-05 06:47:03	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 400 419	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0xf0547b…
03-31 02:14:21	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	76	100¢	$76	0x77b25d…
03-26 08:49:31	bitcoin above 80k on march 27	No	BUY	76	100¢	$76	0x17e5d5…
03-26 08:49:15	will moonshot have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1cc91c…
03-26 08:49:09	will mistral have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7b4aec…
03-21 08:51:01	bitcoin above 74k on march 21	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0xc9f85e…
03-16 11:17:35	bitcoin above 78k on march 16	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0x09f75c…
03-06 09:38:13	bitcoin above 64k on march 6	Yes	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0x7127c1…
03-02 01:29:35	bitcoin above 54k on march 3	Yes	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0x337b3c…
02-10 03:49:55	bitcoin above 76k on february 10	No	BUY	78	100¢	$78	0x326e8b…
02-03 06:54:52	ethereum above 2700 on february 3	No	BUY	78	100¢	$78	0x7f61d2…
01-30 07:20:08	will openai have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	74	100¢	$74	0x7aba50…
01-30 07:19:58	will capcut photo video editor be 2 free app in the us apple app store on january 30	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x68b8e3…
01-30 07:19:50	elon musk of tweets january 29 january 31 240plus	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa23051…
01-25 09:34:08	will bitcoin dip to 80k january 19 25	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0xdfe7aa…
01-25 09:33:58	will the us next strike iran on january 24 2026 et 848	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x939ff9…
01-25 09:33:46	will trump meet with xi jinping in january 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3327b5…
01-21 09:55:54	bitcoin above 94k on january 21	No	BUY	78	100¢	$78	0x23181d…
01-18 02:07:20	will the price of bitcoin be between 88000 90000 on january 18	No	BUY	77	100¢	$77	0xc0d72a…
01-18 02:07:10	will 28 years later bone temple opening weekend box office be between 18pt5m and 21m	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4a2d12…
01-18 02:06:54	bitcoin above 100k on january 18	Yes	BUY	1,500	0¢	$4	0xa4f668…
01-12 10:39:30	bitcoin above 96k on january 12	No	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x691832…
01-08 08:05:51	bitcoin above 84k on january 8	Yes	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0xc66845…
01-03 09:56:55	bitcoin above 98k on january 5	No	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x54c126…