Pessimistic-Farrow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12.6K

Unrealized P&L

-$27

Hit rate

77.6%

Resolved

714

Trades

919

lifetime

Volume

$161.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$175

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-17

last 11-02 21:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 143 days

Categories

Other

72% 58% +$8,618

Sports

22% 64% +$3,887

Crypto

6% 60% +$169

Tech

0% 0% -$50

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		+319	$30	1¢	$3	-$27	05-08 14:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Lakers vs. Clippers	4	$9.8K	10,949	0	+10,949	Lakers	+$1,149	10-29 04:26
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?	5	$6.9K	8,351	0	+8,351	Yes	+$1,451	07-14 20:24
Will CD Castellón vs. Cádiz CF end in a draw?	4	$6.0K	8,602	0	+8,602	Yes	+$2,602	05-15 20:22
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13?	5	$5.0K	6,980	0	+6,980	Yes	+$1,980	05-13 20:38
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	4	$3.3K	5,054	0	+5,054	Yes	+$1,754	06-12 20:47
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev	4	$3.3K	1,832	1,832	+0	Jannik Sinner	+$91	05-16 12:13
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	6	$3.2K	4,163	0	+4,163	No	-$3,200	06-14 21:38
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-05-16?	2	$3.0K	3,654	0	+3,654	Yes	+$654	05-16 12:17
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18?	3	$2.8K	2,979	0	+2,979	Yes	+$179	05-18 20:42
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?	4	$2.7K	3,789	0	+3,789	Yes	+$1,089	07-02 19:28
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	2	$2.5K	4,630	0	+4,630	England	+$2,130	07-05 11:31
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs Karolina Muchova	5	$2.3K	3,014	0	+3,014	Anastasia Potapova	+$684	05-08 12:18
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Tereza Valentova	1	$2.3K	2,447	0	+2,447	Coco Gauff	+$147	05-07 15:34
bitcoin up or down on january 25	6	$2.3K	2,135	2,135	+0	Down	+$70	01-25 08:22
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	2	$1.9K	2,022	0	+2,022	Los Angeles Dodgers	+$122	05-09 04:41
Pistons vs. Magic	6	$1.7K	2,849	49	+2,799	Magic	+$1,190	04-28 00:26
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Clara Tauson vs Oleksandra Oliynykova	1	$1.6K	1,752	0	+1,752	Oleksandra Oliynykova	+$152	05-07 13:53
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca	3	$1.5K	1,921	0	+1,921	Hamad Medjedovic	+$389	05-09 20:03
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?	2	$1.5K	2,431	0	+2,431	Yes	+$931	05-11 20:45
crint gbr3 zaf3 2026 07 02	2	$1.5K	1,837	0	+1,837	England	+$337	07-02 19:24
bl2 dus ksv 2026 04 10 ksv	7	$1.3K	1,855	206	+1,649	Yes	+$494	04-10 18:14
nba sac tor 2026 04 01	7	$1.3K	2,677	0	+2,677	Kings	+$1,356	04-02 01:54
bitcoin up or down on january 24	3	$1.2K	925	925	+0	Down	+$224	01-23 17:32
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins	3	$1.2K	1,776	0	+1,776	Miami Marlins	-$1,200	05-09 22:00
bun aug hof 2026 04 10 aug	5	$1.1K	1,690	101	+1,588	No	-$961	04-10 19:11
Will England win on 2026-07-05?	1	$1.0K	2,500	0	+2,500	Yes	+$1,500	07-03 16:23
mlb mia col 2026 07 02	1	$1000	1,449	0	+1,449	Colorado Rockies	-$1,000	07-02 19:24
fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	1	$1000	1,639	0	+1,639	Switzerland	-$1,000	07-07 08:24
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	1	$1000	1,923	0	+1,923	Yes	+$923	07-03 16:24
fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	1	$1000	1,333	0	+1,333	Spain	+$333	07-07 18:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 21:39:03	Red Wings vs. Panthers	Panthers	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x16e8e6…
11-01 12:20:09	Heat vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	426	47¢	$200	0x5473e2…
11-01 12:19:51	Jazz vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	344	87¢	$300	0xee0743…
11-01 12:19:34	Kings vs. Mavericks	Mavericks	BUY	610	82¢	$500	0x6d6ddc…
11-01 12:19:16	Nets vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0xf17924…
11-01 12:19:06	Hawks vs. Pacers	Hawks	BUY	308	65¢	$200	0xf288f5…
11-01 12:18:52	Bulls vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x056493…
11-01 12:18:43	Wizards vs. Magic	Magic	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0xfc4dd5…
11-01 12:18:34	Raptors vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x5a1486…
11-01 12:18:22	Clippers vs. Warriors	Warriors	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x03d79f…
11-01 12:18:06	Celtics vs. Magic	Celtics	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x2f8852…
11-01 12:17:27	Will London City Lionesses win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	270	37¢	$100	0x2b5ee8…
11-01 12:16:57	Will Arsenal WFC win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x6fa925…
10-31 21:31:48	Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries	Golden State Valkyries	BUY	381	52¢	$200	0xcc4814…
10-31 21:31:36	Kings vs. Grizzlies	Grizzlies	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xe4d93b…
10-31 21:30:36	Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x57316c…
10-31 21:30:00	76ers vs. Hornets	76ers	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x29d96f…
10-31 21:29:34	Maple Leafs vs. Canucks	Maple Leafs	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0xffa1ff…
10-31 21:28:48	Hawks vs. Pelicans	Hawks	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x51296a…
10-31 21:28:07	Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0xf036d7…
10-31 21:27:27	Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0x05347d…
10-31 21:26:31	UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)	Renato Moicano	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x4fb789…
10-31 19:41:19	Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries	Golden State Valkyries	BUY	385	52¢	$200	0xb38805…
10-29 04:26:35	Lakers vs. Clippers	Lakers	BUY	3,404	94¢	$3,200	0x84c94e…
10-29 04:25:44	Lakers vs. Clippers	Lakers	BUY	5,893	87¢	$5,100	0x08c2ea…
10-29 04:25:05	Pan Pacific Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Elise Mertens	Leylah Fernandez	BUY	526	95¢	$500	0x551147…
10-29 04:24:35	Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. Colorado Rapids SC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	240	69¢	$165	0x4fc3d0…
10-29 04:24:25	Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. Colorado Rapids SC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	727	69¢	$500	0xd766b0…
10-29 04:23:46	Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	1,250	16¢	$200	0x7e669e…
10-29 04:23:14	Lakers vs. Clippers	Lakers	BUY	1,091	92¢	$1,000	0xf8540c…
10-29 04:21:08	Will CF América vs. Club Tijuana end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	270	37¢	$100	0x2f7c64…
10-29 04:20:31	Lakers vs. Clippers	Lakers	BUY	562	89¢	$500	0xa15a52…
10-29 04:19:44	Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream	Golden State Valkyries	BUY	811	37¢	$300	0x95fad2…
10-29 04:19:11	Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream	Golden State Valkyries	BUY	811	37¢	$300	0xd8d1e9…
10-29 04:18:22	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England	England	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x04ea7c…
10-29 04:17:34	Guangzhou Open: Jil Teichmann vs Zeynep Sonmez	Zeynep Sonmez	BUY	299	67¢	$200	0xad1712…
10-29 04:16:52	Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x1cb33e…
10-29 04:16:43	Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	171	59¢	$100	0x66fa20…
09-23 02:50:49	Utah vs. Kings	Utah	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x36e022…
09-23 02:50:07	Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire	Golden State Valkyries	BUY	229	87¢	$200	0x26d482…
09-08 09:27:43	Antalya 4: Eva Bennemann vs Katarzyna Kawa	Eva Bennemann	BUY	270	74¢	$200	0x337551…
09-07 15:29:28	US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Qinwen Zheng	Iga Swiatek	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0xf87c34…
09-07 15:28:57	Will El Qanah Club win on 2026-09-07?	Yes	BUY	423	71¢	$300	0x3d5997…
09-06 21:53:39	wta ristic gjorche 2026 09 07	Mia Ristic	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0xd6afcc…
09-06 21:50:57	Commanders vs. Eagles	Eagles	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x611903…
09-06 21:50:18	49ers vs. Rams	Rams	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0x5c9c83…
09-06 21:49:25	Cardinals vs. Chargers	Chargers	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x3e7fc9…
09-06 21:49:10	Dolphins vs. Raiders	Dolphins	BUY	132	38¢	$50	0xb04fe0…
09-06 21:48:45	Browns vs. Jaguars	Jaguars	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0xab6937…
09-06 21:46:49	Will Portland Thorns FC vs. Washington Spirit end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0xd9f295…
09-06 21:46:16	Will ADC Juan Pablo II College vs. Club Alianza Lima end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0x05ed29…
09-06 21:45:36	Will CD Huachipato vs. CSD Colo-Colo end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	74	67¢	$50	0x7f6304…
09-06 21:44:30	US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe	Frances Tiafoe	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x1fdf4b…
09-06 15:26:33	US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Taylor Townsend	Aryna Sabalenka	BUY	241	83¢	$200	0x09ff9a…
09-06 15:25:13	Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-09-06?	Yes	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x2c2c6e…
09-06 15:21:48	Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x7b0d6d…
09-06 15:21:33	Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x04a2e9…
09-06 15:21:12	Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	131	77¢	$100	0xdaa2d4…
09-06 15:20:01	Tulln: Matias Soto vs Sandro Kopp	Sandro Kopp	BUY	129	78¢	$100	0xbe3a7e…
09-06 15:18:16	US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Stefanos Tsitsipas	Stefanos Tsitsipas	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x56ce63…
09-06 15:17:46	US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	136	81¢	$110	0x1a66ad…
09-06 15:16:39	US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sorana Cirstea	Jessica Pegula	BUY	42	72¢	$30	0xbe7595…
09-06 15:13:30	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-06?	Yes	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0x54fca9…
09-06 15:13:04	Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-09-06?	Yes	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x368880…
08-27 20:13:33	Steelers vs. Bills	Bills	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0xec451f…
08-27 20:12:30	Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-08-27?	Yes	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x84fc43…
08-27 20:12:18	Will Boston United FC win on 2026-08-27?	Yes	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x6d02f7…
08-27 20:11:25	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-27?	Yes	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xebb910…
08-27 20:11:12	Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-08-16?	Yes	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x19bf95…
08-27 20:11:00	Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0xb3df7c…
08-03 19:25:03	Will Crawley Town FC win on 2026-08-03?	Yes	BUY	61	49¢	$30	0xbc3e03…
07-19 07:11:39	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	BUY	374	27¢	$100	0xee4121…
07-19 07:11:34	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	245	41¢	$100	0x9c8bd4…
07-19 07:04:19	atp vukic holmgre 2026 07 18	Aleksandar Vukic	BUY	186	70¢	$130	0x5dbff9…
07-15 22:22:37	nbasl sac bos 2026 07 15	Boston Celtics	BUY	47	64¢	$30	0xee1b25…
07-15 22:22:26	wnba gsv ind 2026 07 15	Indiana Fever	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0xb53cd2…
07-15 22:22:17	atp kym tsitsip 2026 07 15	Stefanos Tsitsipas	BUY	48	63¢	$30	0x2a1786…
07-15 22:21:58	cricmlc san los 2026 07 15	Los Angeles Knight Riders	BUY	62	49¢	$30	0x2eae17…
07-15 22:21:40	atp vukic arsenea 2026 07 15	Aleksandar Vukic	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0x216396…
07-15 22:21:31	nbasl det phx 2026 07 15	Phoenix Suns	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0x7acf03…
07-15 20:58:44	Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	SELL	625	5¢	$33	0x986e4a…
07-15 18:49:34	Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	500	6¢	$30	0x7fe9a0…
07-15 18:40:26	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	215	46¢	$100	0x57f872…
07-15 18:39:37	Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	273	11¢	$30	0x0e020a…
07-15 18:34:13	Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	375	8¢	$30	0x570a33…
07-15 18:33:55	Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	1,500	2¢	$30	0x617a1f…
07-15 18:33:26	Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x23e768…
07-15 18:32:43	Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$20	0x335ec9…
07-15 18:31:56	Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	625	3¢	$20	0xc3c919…
07-14 21:29:28	atp draxl trotter 2026 07 14	Liam Draxl	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x0e6485…
07-14 20:31:56	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	649	46¢	$300	0x753b68…
07-14 20:24:43	Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	2,379	88¢	$2,100	0xc31e6e…
07-14 20:24:28	Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	2,266	88¢	$2,000	0x4d09f8…
07-14 20:23:47	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	SELL	500	9¢	$46	0xb937e2…
07-14 20:23:14	Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	2,299	87¢	$2,000	0x58e199…
07-14 20:16:29	Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	881	57¢	$500	0xfc4346…
07-14 20:16:01	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	Spain	BUY	758	66¢	$500	0x5e899d…
07-14 20:15:31	Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	526	57¢	$300	0x8b0d10…
07-12 07:53:20	wta werner amariei 2026 07 12	Caroline Werner	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x6243c4…
07-12 07:53:14	Will FC Seoul win on 2026-07-12?	Yes	BUY	238	42¢	$100	0x92d209…