Likely-Gem — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$422

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

75.8%

Resolved

1,790

Trades

4,493

lifetime

Volume

$32.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-25 12:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 200 days

Categories

Crypto

61% 75% -$184

Other

33% 49% -$217

Politics

6% 45% +$17

Sports

1% 50% +$14

Tech

0% 33% -$53

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 237 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 0 19	17	$305	167	167	+0	Yes	+$29	04-03 15:57
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 280 299	10	$248	227	227	+0	Yes	+$6	02-06 15:14
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 200 219	4	$212	284	284	+0	Yes	-$1	03-05 15:39
will ph win the most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	6	$200	110	110	+0	Yes	+$18	03-09 06:54
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?	8	$181	123	123	+0	No	-$8	01-23 20:23
will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	3	$171	95	95	+0	No	+$19	04-01 04:02
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	5	$144	92	92	+0	No	+$3	03-25 09:51
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$128	4,500	4,500	+0	No	+$16	07-07 17:33
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 340 359	11	$122	154	154	+0	No	+$10	02-24 07:31
will russia capture kostyantynivka by february 28	4	$116	78	78	+0	No	+$16	02-19 08:09
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	6	$112	94	94	+0	No	-$17	04-01 19:59
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	6	$112	103	63	+40	No	+$19	04-30 08:07
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 240 259	7	$107	93	122	-29	Yes	-$17	02-17 14:54
Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	6	$101	65	65	+0	Yes	+$6	05-05 09:24
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	15	$101	737	370	+367	Yes	-$1	04-08 00:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	4	$100	51	51	+0	Up	+$0	09-12 20:25
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?	4	$98	55	55	+0	No	+$10	04-01 20:01
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 340 359	4	$92	64	64	+0	Yes	+$12	02-03 15:30
will russia strike on kyiv municipality on january 25 939	4	$91	64	64	+0	No	+$11	01-25 17:04
white house of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 200plus	4	$91	50	50	+0	Yes	+$9	04-03 05:20
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 29?	7	$89	53	53	+0	No	+$1	04-30 04:28
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 360 379	4	$85	54	54	+0	No	+$7	02-03 16:25
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 1?	6	$85	65	65	+0	Yes	-$23	05-01 14:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	5	$85	43	43	+0	Down	+$1	09-12 07:50
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	5	$84	62	62	+0	Yes	-$10	04-07 21:24
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 460 479	4	$84	64	64	+0	Yes	+$4	01-23 16:38
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 28?	4	$83	45	45	+0	Yes	+$7	04-28 22:52
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	4	$81	50	50	+0	Yes	+$18	04-14 08:48
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 300 319	6	$79	142	142	+0	Yes	+$3	02-27 08:27
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	6	$78	59	59	+0	Yes	-$3	03-31 06:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 12:18:50	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs 1win (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	Team Yandex	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x1f0308…
10-23 04:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xe1af0a…
10-23 04:41:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x672420…
10-23 04:41:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x293f15…
10-23 04:40:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x1b7763…
10-23 04:40:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x810c20…
10-23 04:37:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x913afa…
10-23 04:36:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0x67a877…
10-23 04:35:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	SELL	10	27¢	$3	0xa2549b…
10-23 04:35:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x6545e0…
10-23 04:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x42d788…
10-23 04:33:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x1c732d…
10-23 04:30:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	SELL	3	54¢	$1	0xc8ec22…
10-23 04:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xa6c3a1…
10-23 04:28:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x87c3eb…
10-23 04:27:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x4e8ba2…
10-23 04:26:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x386812…
10-21 05:47:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x71985d…
10-20 19:21:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xa46653…
10-20 19:19:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xcab980…
10-20 19:18:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xd5f6c9…
10-20 19:18:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	SELL	2	27¢	$1	0xf83729…
10-20 19:15:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xaf50df…
10-20 19:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xab46d3…
10-20 19:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	4	6¢	$0	0xaed155…
10-20 19:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x5a9a5d…
10-20 19:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x9bb9e7…
10-20 19:10:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	3	58¢	$2	0x417aaf…
10-20 19:09:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x9087c8…
10-20 19:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xb7dce1…
10-20 19:08:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x85541f…
10-20 19:08:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	24¢	$0	0x7219ea…
10-20 19:06:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xf0bc2a…
10-20 19:02:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xac9b66…
10-20 18:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xad719f…
10-20 18:53:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xe080a4…
10-20 18:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x72e570…
10-20 18:47:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf46d43…
10-20 18:39:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xd44377…
10-19 14:17:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xab401e…
10-14 15:38:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:35 UTC	Down	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0xc4f8ed…
10-14 15:38:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:35 UTC	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x6ab44a…
10-14 15:33:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xd302da…
10-14 15:27:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:25 UTC	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x4deeac…
10-14 15:26:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:25 UTC	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xf004d9…
10-14 10:29:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 10:25 UTC	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x936d5c…
10-14 10:27:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 10:25 UTC	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xf350d0…
10-14 10:23:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 10:20 UTC	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xc7e15e…
10-14 10:22:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 10:20 UTC	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x9d3c00…
10-14 10:22:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 10:20 UTC	Up	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0xca2cb2…
10-14 10:20:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 10:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xcee42a…
10-13 21:53:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 21:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x184b70…
10-13 21:52:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 21:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x8b4c92…
10-13 21:48:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x9b78d9…
10-13 21:48:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x241b89…
10-13 21:48:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 21:45 UTC	Down	SELL	3	20¢	$1	0xe57d7b…
10-13 21:47:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x415683…
10-13 21:45:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x899022…
10-11 11:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xd560a8…
10-11 11:11:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x6f0c9b…
10-09 10:23:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x91a863…
10-09 10:22:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x72edbd…
10-09 10:18:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x1a3799…
10-09 10:17:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x268b9f…
10-09 07:03:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x5d909b…
10-09 06:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xee2ff0…
10-09 06:58:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x67c5e6…
10-09 06:49:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x11dcde…
10-09 06:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x8b2d3a…
10-09 06:39:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x1e5abd…
10-09 06:32:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x62c0e5…
10-09 06:23:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x0def3c…
10-09 06:23:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x145a60…
10-06 05:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x9cb385…
10-06 05:29:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xdf4535…
10-06 05:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x902b28…
10-06 05:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0x8e67c2…
10-06 05:28:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x5e5709…
10-06 05:24:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xf6f530…
10-06 05:18:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x2ab2fc…
10-06 05:18:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x81b426…
10-06 05:14:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x3c7dca…
09-30 16:13:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x584c0f…
09-30 16:12:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x26f0e8…
09-30 15:53:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xc3db46…
09-30 15:47:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 15:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x0c93a0…
09-30 15:43:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xad38f9…
09-30 15:43:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x3d689a…
09-26 19:53:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 19:50 UTC	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xfade10…
09-26 09:42:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 09:40 UTC	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x636ab9…
09-26 09:38:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 09:35 UTC	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x28f742…
09-26 09:29:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 09:25 UTC	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xe01367…
09-26 08:09:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 08:05 UTC	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x0b830b…
09-26 08:07:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 08:05 UTC	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xf8d3cb…
09-26 07:53:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 07:50 UTC	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x1dd967…
09-26 07:44:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 07:40 UTC	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x26c279…
09-26 07:43:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 07:40 UTC	Up	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x813ca1…
09-26 07:42:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 07:40 UTC	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x74a010…
09-26 07:38:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 07:35 UTC	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x2ef91d…
09-26 07:38:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 07:35 UTC	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x15d618…