Incredible-Ball — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$602

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.1%

Resolved

468

Trades

1,171

lifetime

Volume

$43.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$37

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-01

last 11-08 22:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Other

72% 71% +$13

Crypto

10% 71% +$33

Politics

8% 69% -$5

Sports

8% 60% -$619

Tech

2% 25% -$26

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 75 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
val vit loud 2026 09 30 game1	16	$1.4K	2,771	300	+2,471	Team Vitality	-$1,283	09-30 09:27
val g21 pr1 2026 09 29	9	$1.2K	2,146	0	+2,146	Paper Rex	+$896	09-29 12:02
atp vachero tiafoe 2026 09 04	7	$1.1K	1,205	0	+1,205	Frances Tiafoe	+$149	09-05 00:06
val tyloo tl1 2026 10 01	12	$918	1,030	0	+1,030	Team Liquid	+$112	10-01 10:32
val ge1 drx1 2026 08 26	20	$820	534	534	+0	Global Esports	+$247	08-26 13:15
val g21 pr1 2026 09 29 game1	4	$684	1,220	0	+1,220	G2 Esports	-$684	09-29 08:55
Heat vs. Hornets	11	$678	1,220	0	+1,220	Hornets	-$678	10-24 23:04
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	10	$632	450	300	+150	No	+$18	09-30 20:16
val xlg ns1 2026 10 01 game2	7	$626	802	0	+802	Nongshim RedForce	+$176	10-01 13:16
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs	8	$624	851	0	+851	Team Spirit	-$624	10-30 11:37
atp vallejo faria 2026 09 29	7	$606	933	0	+933	Adolfo Vallejo	-$606	09-29 07:42
Porto: Pedro Vives Marcos vs Hugo Dellien	7	$569	636	0	+636	Hugo Dellien	+$68	09-05 10:52
atp hurkacz shapova 2026 09 28	6	$552	835	134	+701	Hubert Hurkacz	+$416	09-28 14:11
Trump renames AI by September 30?	5	$547	300	276	+24	Yes	+$1	09-29 20:55
Spread: VfL Bochum (-2.5)	5	$525	265	265	+0	VfL Wolfsburg	+$4	10-23 20:07
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$503	350	350	+0	No	-$8	10-23 20:01
atp shapova shimabu 2026 09 29 set handicap home 1pt5	9	$500	1,020	0	+1,020	Denis Shapovalov	+$520	10-01 07:58
atp lehecka tsitsip 2026 09 04	2	$499	260	260	+0	Stefanos Tsitsipas	+$21	09-04 23:53
Will "Patient Zero" hit 35m first week streams?	3	$484	250	250	+0	Yes	-$9	10-01 19:08
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	4	$381	200	200	+0	Yes	+$5	10-31 01:39
will ethereum reach 2900 in september 2026	6	$371	375	0	+375	No	+$4	09-30 18:08
dota2 pari lgd 2026 09 30	3	$363	400	0	+400	PARIVISION	+$37	09-30 16:32
Madrid Open, Qualification: Quentin Halys vs Jaime Faria	12	$354	339	206	+133	Jaime Faria	+$126	04-20 14:22
lol ns dnf 2026 08 18	4	$336	180	180	+0	DN SOOPers	+$23	08-18 12:53
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	3	$333	200	200	+0	No	-$25	10-24 13:27
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	8	$330	198	198	+0	No	-$7	05-12 12:48
will trump praise allah again by april 15 423	6	$302	165	165	+0	No	+$1	04-14 07:54
cs2 9ine m8 2026 04 02	3	$290	220	220	+0	9INE	+$149	04-02 16:13
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev	1	$279	300	0	+300	Alexander Zverev	+$21	06-02 14:22
lol ns dnf 2026 08 18 game3	2	$276	600	0	+600	DN SOOPers	-$276	08-18 11:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-08 22:24:43	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?	No	SELL	50	76¢	$38	0xcb10b9…
11-08 22:15:07	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 November 2-8?	No	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0xa06d13…
11-08 22:14:40	76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5	Over	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0x170a22…
11-08 22:11:54	Southern Jaguars vs. Drake Bulldogs	Drake Bulldogs	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x46d458…
11-08 22:11:24	Bitcoin Up or Down on November 9?	Down	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x3ecfbf…
11-08 22:11:10	Butler Bulldogs vs. Boise State Broncos	Boise State Broncos	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x87cef0…
11-08 22:08:33	WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova	Linda Noskova	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xbfd9ac…
11-08 22:08:19	FC Utrecht vs. NEC: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xc2c078…
11-08 21:52:01	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	SELL	122	100¢	$122	0x0c68ca…
11-08 21:23:12	76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 247.5	Over	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0x4b607c…
11-08 21:23:06	76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 247.5	Over	BUY	27	30¢	$8	0xc978a1…
11-08 21:21:57	Spread: 76ers (-4.5)	Bulls	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0xdeb014…
11-08 21:21:57	Spread: 76ers (-4.5)	Bulls	BUY	42	22¢	$9	0x5ff623…
11-08 21:20:40	76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5	Over	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xe6ce99…
11-08 20:44:42	76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 261.5	Under	BUY	80	88¢	$70	0x0cdcf1…
11-08 20:44:33	76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 261.5	Under	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x83eae1…
11-08 20:43:27	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xb01cee…
11-08 20:25:54	Lions vs. Dolphins	Lions	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x051bdf…
11-08 20:25:09	Southern Jaguars vs. Drake Bulldogs	Drake Bulldogs	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x3af8db…
11-08 20:23:52	Spread: Cowboys (-10.5)	Colts	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x7de021…
11-08 20:23:16	WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova	Linda Noskova	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x456da6…
11-08 20:21:58	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0xed01aa…
11-08 20:08:21	Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	BUY	44	92¢	$40	0x1a6226…
11-08 20:07:31	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?	No	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0xf96183…
11-08 20:05:46	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	122	80¢	$98	0xe9fc2c…
11-08 19:58:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	30	55¢	$16	0x3ae7f8…
11-08 19:56:27	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 November 2-8?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xb695b9…
11-08 19:54:57	Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)	ACF Fiorentina	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xfc035a…
11-08 19:47:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0xd9ed41…
11-08 19:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	22	70¢	$16	0xd020a7…
11-08 19:47:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x40216d…
11-08 19:39:54	Panthers vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x1c07f1…
11-08 19:39:51	Panthers vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x7b3fa1…
11-08 19:39:12	Panthers vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x1e9cf8…
11-08 19:31:00	Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	40	84¢	$34	0xd40239…
11-08 19:31:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	13	74¢	$10	0xb1e513…
11-08 19:30:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x93aff4…
11-08 19:29:36	Bitcoin Up or Down on November 9?	Down	BUY	18	46¢	$8	0xae9736…
11-08 19:24:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x409f41…
11-08 19:22:51	FC Utrecht vs. NEC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x56d6ff…
11-08 19:22:49	FC Utrecht vs. NEC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0x4b9b19…
11-08 19:22:31	Butler Bulldogs vs. Boise State Broncos	Boise State Broncos	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0xd35fed…
11-08 19:20:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0xb05dd0…
11-08 19:20:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x34af0c…
11-08 19:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down on November 9?	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x16b829…
11-08 19:15:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	44	83¢	$37	0x7e8d5a…
11-05 16:31:45	Bratislava 2: Jurij Rodionov vs Toby Samuel	Jurij Rodionov	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x1a2e3b…
11-05 15:57:09	Bratislava 2: Jurij Rodionov vs Toby Samuel	Jurij Rodionov	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x7113aa…
11-05 15:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0xf3bfda…
11-05 15:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0x6e58bb…
11-05 15:41:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xdd62d6…
11-05 15:37:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	16	59¢	$10	0xe889fb…
11-05 15:37:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x757eb4…
11-05 15:37:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	40	73¢	$29	0xf6ff1c…
11-05 15:29:34	Rolex Paris Masters: Rinky Hijikata vs Tomas Etcheverry	Rinky Hijikata	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xc632fe…
11-05 15:28:49	Rolex Paris Masters: Rinky Hijikata vs Tomas Etcheverry	Rinky Hijikata	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0x8bbe52…
11-05 12:38:45	Celtic FC vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	30	84¢	$25	0x4afeee…
11-05 11:44:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x4cefc9…
11-05 11:44:33	Mobis Phoebus vs. Seoul Thunders	Seoul Thunders	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x1250c7…
11-05 11:44:28	Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	40	49¢	$20	0xd47b6f…
11-05 11:44:21	Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys	Tommy Paul	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0x831467…
11-05 11:44:16	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 5, 2026?	No	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0xaeaf66…
11-05 11:44:13	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	97¢	$79	0xa85269…
11-05 11:44:10	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on November 5?	No	SELL	100	89¢	$89	0x95b8a4…
11-05 11:44:06	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 8, 2026?	No	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0x8e0bec…
11-05 11:42:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0xaaea71…
11-05 11:41:55	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?	Yes	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0xf302fd…
11-05 11:41:52	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0xa0fc0d…
11-05 11:41:48	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	110	95¢	$104	0x53b0c9…
11-05 11:40:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 5?	No	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0x3a9eb9…
11-05 11:34:19	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	97¢	$35	0xfd8629…
11-05 11:20:30	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on November 5?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x90f876…
11-05 11:09:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xf1e1ca…
11-05 11:08:48	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	0	95¢	$0	0xb99380…
11-05 11:08:46	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x6bb3b2…
11-05 11:08:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x2feb32…
11-05 10:58:42	Mobis Phoebus vs. Seoul Thunders	Seoul Thunders	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x857595…
11-05 10:55:12	Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys	Tommy Paul	BUY	40	67¢	$27	0xb39acf…
11-05 10:41:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0x7172d1…
11-05 10:40:18	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x4100df…
11-05 10:37:22	Celtic FC vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x6e2500…
11-05 10:23:25	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	97¢	$35	0xd0a1d7…
11-05 10:21:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 5?	No	BUY	48	93¢	$44	0xbf1260…
11-05 10:19:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 5?	No	BUY	29	93¢	$27	0xa6222b…
11-05 10:19:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 5?	No	BUY	24	93¢	$22	0x165138…
11-05 10:13:19	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on November 5?	No	SELL	111	100¢	$111	0xce5817…
11-05 10:11:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x7d16f8…
11-05 10:11:12	Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	40	51¢	$20	0x241c94…
11-05 08:46:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x00e862…
11-05 08:46:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	17	55¢	$10	0xa360cf…
11-05 08:10:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$1	0xb9cbde…
11-05 08:09:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x79c320…
11-05 08:09:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0xaa5f8a…
11-05 08:08:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xd9d0d9…
11-05 08:07:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x38d3cd…
11-05 08:06:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x68a91e…
11-05 07:58:42	Dogecoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x32d06a…
11-05 07:58:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0xb95b15…
11-05 00:22:43	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc45813…
11-05 00:17:06	Spread: Spurs (-23.5)	Mavericks	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x2abfa6…