Dry-Linkage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$105

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

68.6%

Resolved

364

Trades

1,058

lifetime

Volume

$6.80K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 08-18 16:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Crypto

61% 41% -$165

Other

38% 47% +$271

Politics

0% 0% —

Tech

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
cricipl pun guj 2026 03 31	4	$351	206	205	+2	Punjab Kings	+$50	03-31 17:49
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings	3	$173	93	93	+0	Sunrisers Hyderabad	+$12	04-18 18:09
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings	2	$163	83	83	+0	Chennai Super Kings	+$3	05-05 17:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	10	$162	142	142	+0	Up	-$6	05-21 22:28
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants	2	$149	79	79	+0	Mumbai Indians	+$9	05-04 21:06
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals	6	$140	87	87	+0	Delhi Capitals	+$13	05-01 17:55
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad	6	$125	73	73	+0	Sunrisers Hyderabad	+$22	05-18 18:00
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad	11	$112	110	94	+16	Sunrisers Hyderabad	+$1	04-29 18:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9AM ET	6	$111	89	89	+0	Down	+$5	04-28 13:50
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals	3	$105	88	86	+2	Rajasthan Royals	+$69	04-22 17:38
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians	2	$103	63	63	+0	Royal Challengers Bangalore	+$23	05-10 18:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-31 07:15 UTC	6	$83	51	50	+1	Down	+$4	03-31 07:29
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-31 06:15 UTC	6	$74	64	61	+2	Down	+$16	03-31 06:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	4	$73	86	86	+0	Down	+$13	05-21 22:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	2	$72	74	74	+0	Up	+$32	05-22 08:06
cricipl luc del 2026 04 01	9	$71	129	50	+79	Delhi Capitals	-$4	04-01 17:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6PM ET	4	$70	82	82	+0	Down	+$0	04-29 22:52
cricipl kol sun 2026 04 02	4	$69	106	42	+64	Sunrisers Hyderabad	-$20	04-02 15:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	6	$67	60	60	+0	Down	+$7	05-21 21:39
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3?	2	$64	40	40	+0	Yes	+$3	05-05 12:02
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 21:30 UTC	6	$62	69	68	+1	Up	+$3	03-30 21:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	3	$61	53	29	+23	Up	+$4	05-22 07:29
cricipl raj che 2026 03 30	2	$60	40	40	+0	Rajasthan Royals	+$20	03-30 17:52
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants	6	$58	41	41	+0	Rajasthan Royals	+$24	05-19 17:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	8	$56	75	75	+0	Down	+$0	05-21 21:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	2	$54	50	50	+0	Down	-$2	04-28 13:42
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 21:45 UTC	6	$54	188	186	+2	Down	-$1	03-30 21:55
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings	4	$54	60	59	+1	Punjab Kings	+$23	04-25 14:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	4	$52	62	62	+0	Down	+$4	05-22 07:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	5	$51	117	38	+79	Down	-$21	05-23 05:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-18 16:09:24	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-18 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	27	18¢	$5	0xc6a486…
08-18 16:03:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-18 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x76a789…
07-07 16:49:16	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xda9675…
07-07 16:48:56	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x80f048…
07-06 06:18:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:15 UTC	Down	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x278558…
07-06 06:17:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x788373…
07-02 08:22:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 08:20 UTC	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x5e04cf…
06-16 12:10:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 12:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x3b74fc…
06-16 12:05:03	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?	Yes	SELL	37	1¢	$0	0x700967…
06-10 10:36:09	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0x51715e…
05-31 10:20:40	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0xb88575…
05-31 10:20:05	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x7654f1…
05-31 10:19:21	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 49°F or below on June 2?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xdafa37…
05-31 10:17:29	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x966f83…
05-31 10:07:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x9d8cbe…
05-31 10:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x491936…
05-31 10:00:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x4c6c91…
05-31 10:00:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xf98760…
05-31 09:58:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x3dc375…
05-31 09:57:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xe16cca…
05-31 09:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	6	94¢	$5	0xa54cf6…
05-31 09:46:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x4c38cf…
05-31 09:39:37	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-05-31 09:30 UTC	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x45a942…
05-31 09:32:43	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xa36510…
05-31 09:27:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x3d4f14…
05-30 22:39:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xd592fc…
05-30 22:32:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xd6e658…
05-30 22:32:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x9e5285…
05-30 22:28:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xbbcdb4…
05-30 22:28:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x230eb3…
05-30 22:27:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x16d772…
05-30 22:24:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0xb3fc3d…
05-30 22:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xaf9774…
05-30 22:21:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	17	67¢	$12	0xc583b8…
05-30 22:18:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x84b573…
05-30 22:16:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xf101b6…
05-30 22:14:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x2b528e…
05-30 22:13:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x5dbdef…
05-30 22:13:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	4	37¢	$2	0x766b32…
05-30 22:12:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x07c79b…
05-30 22:11:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	33	1¢	$0	0x589885…
05-30 22:11:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x707fe8…
05-30 22:05:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x97e76b…
05-30 22:02:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	6	85¢	$5	0x4c630c…
05-30 22:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x17c3bd…
05-30 21:59:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0xae6514…
05-30 21:53:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x64bf70…
05-30 21:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0x10c668…
05-30 21:47:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x9c46f6…
05-30 21:47:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	7	49¢	$3	0xb62860…
05-30 21:46:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xe9bb88…
05-30 20:28:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xf86582…
05-30 20:27:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	19	18¢	$3	0xbb688c…
05-30 20:21:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x21e4ba…
05-30 20:18:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x30ef56…
05-30 20:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0c69f7…
05-30 20:11:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x7d38e0…
05-30 20:09:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x8f0b63…
05-30 20:07:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x565b5b…
05-30 20:06:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	SELL	12	7¢	$1	0xc9ec04…
05-30 20:05:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xcc9fb8…
05-30 20:03:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0x76f6a7…
05-30 20:00:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x06c42a…
05-30 19:59:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	32	71¢	$23	0x32463b…
05-30 19:50:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x9cc08f…
05-30 19:46:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x0bbdbb…
05-30 19:43:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x40b6ff…
05-30 19:42:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xc4f3df…
05-30 19:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x3507ba…
05-30 19:41:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x755adf…
05-30 19:36:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	SELL	11	33¢	$4	0x98e969…
05-30 19:35:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xee4ca1…
05-30 19:34:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xd69efe…
05-30 19:33:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0x495b8b…
05-30 19:32:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xfea423…
05-30 19:26:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x5729dd…
05-30 19:25:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x770d21…
05-30 18:05:58	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x92dc57…
05-30 18:04:01	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x980efa…
05-30 18:00:41	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x9f262e…
05-30 17:56:35	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	13	83¢	$11	0x9ef0ca…
05-30 17:24:47	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xd43e5e…
05-30 17:17:16	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	15	59¢	$9	0xd11c5c…
05-30 17:12:22	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	13	26¢	$3	0x56964b…
05-30 17:06:04	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x9f8217…
05-30 13:20:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x92d636…
05-30 13:17:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xafd006…
05-30 13:17:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	7	51¢	$4	0x55c191…
05-30 13:15:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x15e47a…
05-30 13:14:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xd0ade1…
05-30 13:13:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x487e31…
05-30 13:09:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xbd3772…
05-30 13:08:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb37df4…
05-30 13:06:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xb1166f…
05-30 13:04:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x2a931a…
05-30 13:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xa2d832…
05-30 12:57:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xd2a763…
05-30 12:55:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x2d6214…
05-30 12:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x1bad0b…
05-30 12:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0xb7b9ab…