Faraway-Survival — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$246

Unrealized P&L

+$90

Hit rate

93.9%

Resolved

Trades

279

lifetime

Volume

$46.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$165

Open exposure

$12

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-16 14:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

68% 0% $-111

Politics

29% 100% +$357

Pop-Culture

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes		-3,447	$-102	0¢	$-12	+$90	06-16 14:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	52	$15.7K	9,408	9,398	+10	open	—	03-20 13:11
Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30?	4	$4.6K	2,340	2,340	+0	open	—	04-02 23:30
will dont be dumb debut week album sales be at least 200k	5	$2.0K	1,281	1,281	+0	open	—	01-21 22:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$1.9K	2,500	5,947	-3,447	open	—	06-16 14:54
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	3	$1.7K	4,500	4,500	+0	Yes	+$357	05-08 18:12
will trump say the state of the union is strong during the 2026 state of the union address 924	3	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	02-25 04:00
will trump say biden 10 times during the 2026 state of the union address 599	2	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	02-25 03:58
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	3	$1.5K	2,000	1,900	+100	open	—	04-03 02:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$1.3K	5,000	4,000	+1,000	open	—	05-28 17:49
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	23	$1.1K	1,850	0	+1,850	open	—	05-19 18:24
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	11	$837	8,128	1,500	+6,628	open	—	01-26 20:31
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	4	$768	2,437	1,000	+1,437	open	—	01-30 19:05
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	6	$672	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	01-14 23:50
will the fall off debut week album sales be less than 150k	1	$600	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-12 06:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	3	$521	1,424	424	+1,000	open	—	05-28 17:49
will the fall off debut week album sales be between 200k and 250k	3	$483	443	443	+0	open	—	02-10 22:19
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	3	$458	500	500	+0	open	—	01-14 19:27
will dont be dumb debut week album sales be between 100k and 125k	3	$452	590	415	+175	open	—	01-23 07:37
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$420	500	500	+0	open	—	03-23 11:14
us strikes iran by february 2 2026	7	$418	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	01-30 20:58
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	4	$380	325	325	+0	open	—	01-14 22:56
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$356	500	500	+0	open	—	02-28 16:22
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	1	$331	2,107	0	+2,107	open	—	05-01 01:34
will wuthering heights debut week album sales be less than 75k	2	$319	214	214	+0	open	—	02-16 04:09
israel strikes iran by january 14 2026	7	$315	830	830	+0	open	—	01-14 23:49
will deadline blackpink debut week album sales be less than 300k	7	$309	262	262	+0	open	—	02-25 04:11
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$265	500	500	+0	open	—	01-12 03:24
will goat opening weekend box office be greater than 26m	2	$262	175	175	+0	open	—	02-15 16:08
will prizefighter mumford and sons debut week album sales be less than 200k	4	$251	458	0	+458	open	—	02-09 14:47
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	1	$250	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	01-30 20:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-16 14:54:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	5,947	17¢	$1,011	0xefa4d5…
06-14 21:44:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	2,500	36¢	$909	0x3ba1e0…
05-28 17:49:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	424	27¢	$115	0xa0696d…
05-28 17:49:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,000	14¢	$560	0xb4a84d…
05-28 16:32:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	29¢	$287	0x9b7551…
05-28 16:32:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,500	14¢	$350	0x64566a…
05-28 16:31:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,500	14¢	$350	0xe96801…
05-28 16:31:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	424	28¢	$119	0xc00f2f…
05-19 18:24:14	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	508	66¢	$337	0xdcfa62…
05-19 16:29:17	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	14	60¢	$8	0x70d02f…
05-19 16:27:41	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$4	0xe96717…
05-19 16:11:28	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x080864…
05-19 16:10:44	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x000d85…
05-19 15:38:36	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	78	60¢	$47	0x3efb92…
05-19 15:17:15	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xcbd3d3…
05-19 15:17:03	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x78d2e6…
05-19 15:13:47	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	71	60¢	$43	0xf8919c…
05-19 15:13:36	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	28	60¢	$17	0x5e842b…
05-19 15:13:24	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	46	60¢	$28	0x4a9b6b…
05-19 15:13:13	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x0a0e75…
05-19 15:13:03	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	43	60¢	$26	0xe08441…
05-19 15:12:52	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x87a69b…
05-19 15:12:42	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	142	60¢	$85	0xd75ee1…
05-19 15:12:31	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	73	60¢	$44	0xd60383…
05-19 15:12:21	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	56	60¢	$34	0xb57b6a…
05-19 15:11:04	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0x322645…
05-19 15:01:54	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	125	60¢	$75	0xa8b847…
05-19 14:54:58	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	26	60¢	$16	0x02aad2…
05-19 14:45:19	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	32	60¢	$19	0xf72121…
05-19 14:45:08	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	245	60¢	$147	0x72ba34…
05-19 14:45:06	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	213	60¢	$128	0x9ccdc2…
05-08 18:12:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,500	23¢	$1,028	0x71cdb0…
05-08 18:03:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,250	15¢	$485	0x65a781…
05-08 18:02:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,250	15¢	$186	0x2e7e90…
05-01 01:34:02	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	2,107	16¢	$331	0x146877…
04-04 02:26:43	will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 180m and 190m	Yes	SELL	171	61¢	$105	0x130958…
04-04 02:21:39	will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 180m and 190m	Yes	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x458559…
04-04 02:21:31	will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 180m and 190m	Yes	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x743b94…
04-04 02:18:13	will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 180m and 190m	Yes	SELL	33	61¢	$20	0x79afa2…
04-03 17:37:35	will arirang bts be the billboard 200 1 album for the week of april 11	No	BUY	246	19¢	$48	0xca1fb1…
04-03 02:25:11	will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	Yes	SELL	900	10¢	$90	0xd45afd…
04-03 02:24:51	will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 180m and 190m	Yes	BUY	214	39¢	$84	0x37a063…
04-02 23:30:59	Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30?	Yes	SELL	570	100¢	$569	0xf2917d…
04-02 16:25:45	Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30?	Yes	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0xe69576…
04-02 16:22:35	Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,700	100¢	$1,697	0x323379…
04-02 16:01:19	Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2,340	98¢	$2,283	0x3aa1f1…
03-31 21:48:43	will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	Yes	SELL	1,000	27¢	$275	0x1e93ee…
03-23 11:14:47	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	500	48¢	$240	0xaa5d8c…
03-23 11:09:33	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	Yes	BUY	250	34¢	$85	0x42d1c2…
03-23 11:08:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	500	36¢	$180	0x3c2a20…
03-20 13:33:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	11¢	$111	0xc90399…
03-20 13:32:17	Netanyahu out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	7¢	$70	0xa653db…
03-20 13:31:55	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	BUY	2,500	2¢	$42	0x91f26f…
03-20 13:29:41	will project hail mary opening weekend box office be between 85m and 90m	Yes	BUY	250	14¢	$35	0x9d5d02…
03-20 13:29:25	will project hail mary opening weekend box office be greater than 90m	Yes	BUY	449	8¢	$36	0xaf7aed…
03-20 13:11:37	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	7,210	97¢	$6,994	0x1f9f20…
03-20 04:22:33	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	35	97¢	$34	0x196474…
03-20 04:22:31	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	103	97¢	$100	0xec6dfd…
03-20 04:22:27	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	103	97¢	$100	0x476a21…
03-20 04:22:25	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	103	97¢	$100	0x857e13…
03-20 04:22:21	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	103	97¢	$100	0x554592…
03-20 04:22:19	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	103	97¢	$100	0x6f1339…
03-20 04:22:17	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	103	97¢	$100	0x38940d…
03-20 03:42:13	Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in April?	No	BUY	210	29¢	$61	0x447283…
03-19 23:50:23	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	22	97¢	$22	0x2bd4b7…
03-19 23:46:21	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x81f7cc…
03-19 23:15:15	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0x5cd3dc…
03-19 23:10:49	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0xaf8d61…
03-19 23:10:35	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	33	97¢	$32	0xf665fb…
03-19 23:10:19	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	76	97¢	$73	0x58b448…
03-19 22:41:17	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x197730…
03-19 21:51:45	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0x648a72…
03-19 21:36:51	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xd31844…
03-19 21:01:47	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xcf1778…
03-19 19:57:13	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x151194…
03-19 19:55:35	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x2f51b4…
03-19 19:51:23	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x6e9461…
03-19 19:28:53	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	300	97¢	$291	0xedd343…
03-19 19:19:01	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x5f270a…
03-19 19:18:31	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	18	97¢	$17	0x70a0be…
03-19 18:52:47	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	17	97¢	$16	0x3fde66…
03-19 18:52:45	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x0d298b…
03-18 15:03:41	will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	Yes	BUY	2,000	59¢	$1,174	0xd79b53…
03-18 15:01:33	will project hail mary opening weekend box office be greater than 90m	Yes	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0x72ef23…
03-16 00:51:59	will undertone opening weekend box office be between 8m and 9m	Yes	BUY	109	33¢	$36	0x3b36ef…
03-16 00:51:35	will undertone opening weekend box office be between 8m and 9m	Yes	BUY	47	29¢	$14	0xb7d8b9…
03-13 20:47:47	Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in April?	Yes	BUY	281	37¢	$103	0xe246db…
03-13 20:46:43	will kiss all the time disco occasionally harry styles debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k	No	SELL	222	0¢	$0	0xca0e74…
03-13 20:46:27	will kiss all the time disco occasionally harry styles debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k	Yes	SELL	140	0¢	$0	0x2ca75e…
03-13 20:46:09	will kiss all the time disco occasionally harry styles debut week album sales be at least 550k	Yes	SELL	625	0¢	$1	0xa91ea9…
03-13 20:45:53	will kiss all the time disco occasionally harry styles debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k	Yes	SELL	64	0¢	$0	0x7924f4…
03-11 14:30:23	will kiss all the time disco occasionally harry styles debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k	No	SELL	216	54¢	$117	0x0b602a…
03-10 19:58:11	will kiss all the time disco occasionally harry styles debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k	No	BUY	439	23¢	$101	0x7391aa…
03-08 03:43:01	will hoppers opening weekend box office be between 50m and 54m	Yes	BUY	3,535	1¢	$31	0x545c37…
03-07 08:55:47	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	545	92¢	$501	0x109824…
03-06 17:02:23	will kiss all the time disco occasionally harry styles debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k	Yes	BUY	64	12¢	$8	0xa4f2dc…
03-06 17:02:13	will kiss all the time disco occasionally harry styles debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k	Yes	BUY	140	11¢	$15	0x18a3fd…
03-06 04:40:03	will kiss all the time disco occasionally harry styles debut week album sales be at least 550k	Yes	BUY	734	29¢	$213	0x56749c…
03-03 22:32:43	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	27	92¢	$25	0xb610f8…
03-02 22:16:09	will arirang bts debut week album sales be less than 3m	Yes	SELL	404	92¢	$372	0x03c7d4…