Embellished-Nougat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7.32K

Unrealized P&L

-$82

Hit rate

59.4%

Resolved

470

Trades

711

lifetime

Volume

$45.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$64

Open exposure

$18

1 position

First seen

2026-03-20

last 10-20 21:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Crypto

86% 35% -$6,207

Politics

10% 32% -$552

Other

2% 12% -$179

Sports

1% 14% -$387

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No		+303	$100	6¢	$18	-$82	05-10 20:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 02:35 UTC	2	$949	729	718	+11	Down	+$160	03-22 02:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 23:20 UTC	2	$789	514	506	+8	Up	+$201	03-23 23:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 22:35 UTC	4	$712	734	725	+9	Up	+$117	03-23 22:36
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026?	2	$624	566	566	+0	Yes	+$384	04-04 15:23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	2	$599	422	415	+7	No	+$106	04-13 20:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 22:40 UTC	5	$579	607	485	+122	Up	+$60	03-23 22:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 22:45 UTC	5	$566	490	448	+43	Down	+$92	03-23 22:49
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	2	$533	365	365	+0	No	+$73	04-13 20:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 23:10 UTC	3	$499	450	380	+70	Up	+$85	03-22 23:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 21:25 UTC	4	$492	434	427	+7	Down	+$62	03-23 21:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 08:00 UTC	2	$482	418	411	+7	Up	+$88	03-23 08:00
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	3	$476	1,920	1,056	+864	Yes	-$244	05-09 20:15
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	1	$450	610	0	+610	No	+$160	04-16 06:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 22:15 UTC	2	$440	328	323	+5	Down	+$120	03-23 22:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 14:45 UTC	2	$424	616	612	+4	Up	+$188	03-27 14:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 21:55 UTC	3	$420	1,357	0	+1,357	Up	-$125	03-20 21:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 22:55 UTC	2	$412	358	353	+6	Up	+$46	03-23 22:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 22:15 UTC	1	$400	568	0	+568	Down	-$400	03-20 22:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 21:50 UTC	4	$395	396	391	+5	Down	+$77	03-23 21:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 23:10 UTC	3	$365	434	305	+129	Down	+$168	03-25 23:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 01:10 UTC	3	$361	490	264	+226	Down	+$164	03-21 01:15
will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	3	$335	10,324	324	+10,000	No	+$15	04-04 14:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 23:35 UTC	2	$330	570	566	+4	Up	+$90	03-21 23:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 23:50 UTC	1	$328	0	701	-701	Down	-$373	03-21 23:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 02:15 UTC	2	$324	345	341	+4	Down	+$128	03-22 02:18
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-08 14:15 UTC	3	$317	455	297	+158	Down	+$73	04-08 14:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-04 20:30 UTC	2	$300	772	0	+772	Down	+$92	04-04 20:35
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	1	$300	456	0	+456	Yes	-$300	04-08 20:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 22:35 UTC	1	$300	545	0	+545	Up	-$300	03-25 22:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 23:15 UTC	1	$300	524	0	+524	Down	-$300	03-23 23:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 21:43:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x9a5452…
10-20 21:40:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x8b97ba…
10-20 21:34:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xef7463…
10-20 21:32:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xf56dec…
07-19 15:02:16	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	318	41¢	$130	0x93254e…
07-18 09:43:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 09:40 UTC	Down	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xd8690e…
07-17 22:18:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 22:15 UTC	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xe88911…
07-17 22:18:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 22:15 UTC	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x6176cf…
07-17 21:57:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 21:55 UTC	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x83ab17…
07-17 21:51:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 21:50 UTC	Up	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xb57b67…
07-17 21:48:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xbe2b68…
07-17 21:44:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 21:40 UTC	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x30db29…
06-13 21:51:31	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,225	8¢	$92	0xc66e94…
06-09 10:40:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 10:40 UTC	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x193c18…
06-09 10:24:52	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	3,075	4¢	$123	0x16eb5f…
05-30 19:39:48	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	191	64¢	$123	0xf27012…
05-30 09:40:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xd0a1b8…
05-30 09:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xea0184…
05-27 19:42:07	Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	186	7¢	$13	0x435e7b…
05-27 19:42:00	Will Donald Trump dance on May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x90f8da…
05-27 19:39:54	Will Donald Trump dance on May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	177	13¢	$23	0x2e994e…
05-27 19:38:14	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	BUY	438	8¢	$35	0x2b11d1…
05-25 20:43:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	291	86¢	$250	0x82a7f6…
05-25 20:41:43	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	719	28¢	$200	0x30c626…
05-16 22:48:24	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	39¢	$37	0x725dd1…
05-16 20:09:09	Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	32¢	$28	0x28f0d0…
05-16 19:13:55	Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	BUY	49	21¢	$10	0xff7082…
05-16 19:12:59	Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	BUY	71	63¢	$45	0x07cfd6…
05-16 19:11:54	Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	BUY	750	0¢	$3	0x3a5554…
05-14 19:57:08	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	131	61¢	$80	0xdcedec…
05-14 19:52:11	Will Azerbaijan be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,014	1¢	$10	0xb14799…
05-14 19:51:57	Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	387	13¢	$50	0x14035a…
05-12 21:10:03	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	619	5¢	$30	0xf203f7…
05-12 21:08:41	Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0x41ac65…
05-12 21:08:27	Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0x0cb57d…
05-12 20:30:21	Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0x9b0dc2…
05-12 20:26:48	Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0xeca506…
05-10 20:37:37	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	BUY	303	33¢	$100	0x1f2112…
05-09 20:15:06	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	SELL	1,056	11¢	$116	0x6f4676…
05-09 20:12:52	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	764	30¢	$230	0x94b1e0…
05-04 17:38:36	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	1,459	21¢	$300	0xfb6620…
05-03 21:17:10	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	462	13¢	$60	0x465bf7…
05-03 21:15:32	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	250	16¢	$40	0x77be6b…
05-03 21:15:12	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	500	8¢	$40	0xec0d7d…
04-29 04:51:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	400	15¢	$60	0x03797b…
04-25 10:18:08	XRP Up or Down - April 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	244	68¢	$166	0xc1e847…
04-25 07:13:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x5bbc2c…
04-22 19:54:18	bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0xc1b665…
04-22 19:49:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	36	9¢	$3	0x387ed3…
04-22 19:47:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 19:45 UTC	Up	SELL	30	71¢	$21	0x8636df…
04-22 19:45:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xcd8548…
04-18 20:11:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	312	64¢	$200	0xd812df…
04-18 17:02:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 17:00 UTC	Up	SELL	68	43¢	$29	0x259884…
04-18 17:00:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0x2b0328…
04-18 16:57:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 16:55 UTC	Up	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0x47009a…
04-18 16:55:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 16:55 UTC	Down	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0xbc7978…
04-16 06:18:06	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	610	74¢	$450	0x597380…
04-14 08:22:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 08:20 UTC	Up	BUY	62	24¢	$15	0x7dddaa…
04-14 08:19:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 08:15 UTC	Up	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x15e608…
04-13 20:56:39	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	No	SELL	365	83¢	$303	0xd1e2f6…
04-13 20:55:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	SELL	415	84¢	$349	0x04318b…
04-13 08:22:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 08:20 UTC	Down	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xe58a45…
04-12 19:56:57	bitcoin up or down april 12 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	233	3¢	$7	0x824477…
04-12 19:38:19	bitcoin up or down april 12 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	111	27¢	$30	0xf7e1de…
04-12 19:38:05	bitcoin up or down april 12 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	19	33¢	$6	0x98ba74…
04-12 19:34:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 19:30 UTC	Down	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x93454e…
04-12 19:32:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 19:30 UTC	Down	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x3c66f8…
04-12 19:29:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 19:25 UTC	Down	BUY	0	20¢	$0	0xc3d1d5…
04-12 19:26:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 19:25 UTC	Up	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0xcc7d79…
04-11 23:26:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 23:25 UTC	Up	BUY	88	23¢	$20	0xaf3f18…
04-11 23:22:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 23:20 UTC	Down	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x57dfa2…
04-11 23:17:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 23:15 UTC	Down	BUY	19	24¢	$5	0xb8f2a8…
04-11 23:13:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 23:10 UTC	Down	BUY	125	20¢	$25	0xddbf02…
04-11 22:53:33	ethereum up or down april 11 2026 6pm et	Up	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x20f4d2…
04-11 22:31:51	bitcoin up or down april 11 2026 6pm et	Up	BUY	174	17¢	$30	0x07b140…
04-09 19:25:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 19:25 UTC	Down	BUY	64	47¢	$30	0x547e58…
04-09 19:19:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	114	7¢	$8	0x6e7f8b…
04-09 19:16:51	bitcoin up or down april 9 2026 3pm et	Down	BUY	355	34¢	$120	0xf1742f…
04-08 22:57:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 22:55 UTC	Up	BUY	115	13¢	$15	0x7d2c81…
04-08 22:41:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 22:40 UTC	Up	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x6f597e…
04-08 22:06:39	bitcoin up or down april 8 2026 6pm et	Up	BUY	119	42¢	$50	0x71645c…
04-08 21:08:11	bitcoin up or down april 8 2026 5pm et	Down	BUY	295	34¢	$100	0x25625e…
04-08 20:49:29	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	No	BUY	365	63¢	$230	0xc4f1ce…
04-08 20:48:57	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	400	35¢	$140	0xa99373…
04-08 20:46:49	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	297	50¢	$150	0xdd82b9…
04-08 20:46:39	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	456	66¢	$300	0xde2720…
04-08 14:37:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 14:35 UTC	Down	BUY	278	39¢	$108	0x779503…
04-08 14:31:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-08 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	575	35¢	$200	0xb372da…
04-08 14:24:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-08 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	143	21¢	$30	0xd60f21…
04-08 14:21:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-08 14:15 UTC	Down	SELL	297	63¢	$187	0x7ce834…
04-08 14:16:57	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-08 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	312	32¢	$100	0x53045e…
04-08 14:04:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-08 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	327	55¢	$180	0x863795…
04-08 13:58:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-08 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	149	19¢	$28	0x7ab9b7…
04-08 13:08:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-08 13:00 UTC	Down	BUY	515	2¢	$10	0x5eaa84…
04-07 22:33:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-07 22:30 UTC	Down	BUY	363	15¢	$55	0x0aec49…
04-07 22:32:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-07 22:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x1332c5…
04-07 22:23:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-07 22:15 UTC	Down	BUY	222	25¢	$55	0xd2f568…
04-07 22:17:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 22:15 UTC	Up	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0x00f5d4…
04-07 21:55:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 21:55 UTC	Up	BUY	457	22¢	$100	0x5b5b6f…
04-07 21:51:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 21:50 UTC	Down	BUY	323	31¢	$100	0x50d923…